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Natural Gas Meets Its Corrective Target and Is Ready to Rally Harder


The long bond's potential corrective bounce was cut short by a return to its lows.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlights: The long bond's potential corrective bounce was cut short Tuesday by a return to its lows. Perhaps the shrinking window preceding Friday's Employment Situation Report will be used, forming a better bottom. Bouncing Wednesday would suggest the correction scenario remains intact. Meanwhile, natural gas may have completed its own correction, fulfilling its pullback objective. The next move should be productive.

Dollar Basket
Recent ranging around 79.85 broke lower Tuesday to test 79.60. Unless rejected without delay Wednesday, a new low targeting 79.05 is in play.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's close above 1.3465-1.3475 is targeting 1.3635-1.3640 unless rejected Wednesay without delay.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping up Tuesday from Monday's shallow probe of fresh lows - instead of simply firming, or recovering intraday from a fresh low - probably prevented buyers from gaining traction while sellers refueled.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's bounce up to 31.25 left outstanding the attraction down to 31.25 support before a reliable recovery attempt could begin.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Extending above Monday's 143-18 bounce limit Tuesday to 144-03 only stretched the rubber band back as its reaction down attacked Monday's 143-03 low, suggesting the 142-26 target remains in-play.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL, ETF: (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's open was the best effort yet at resuming the rally to 99.00. Not gapping up for the first time in three sessions allowed buyers to gain traction on the way to 97.75. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 97.10-97.25.

Natural Gas
The extended un-refueled rally reached its minimum 3.25 corrective target Tuesday. Closing back above 3.29 would start to suggest momentum was reversing up, confirmed above 3.36, to at least retest the 3.60 high if not also trend through it. Closing back under 3.16 would take off the table any such recovery potential before forming some other accumulative pattern.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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