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Last Chance for Precious Metals to Turn Current Bounce Into Bigger Rally


A corrective rally would end Wednesday or start Thursday in obvious decline.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold and silver were likely to resume trending Tuesday. And their resumed trending was also likely not to extend Wednesday. Tuesday's strong rallies left a little on the table, but retracing any initial gains Wednesday could trigger a more substantial drop intraday.

Dollar Basket
Monday's shallow bounce was rejected by Tuesday's gap down that extended back under 82.50, keeping alive potential down to 81.40.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Gapping up Tuesday and extending higher confirms the rally remains intact, next targeting 1.3140 with potential to 1.3325.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Having consolidated Friday's surge Monday, Tuesday resumed the rally as was expected. The $17 rally tested 1590.00 could extend Wednesday up to 1597.00 so long as 1579.00 holds as support. Back under 1574.50 would signal a new downleg underway.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
While almost any immediate trending at Tuesday's open was likely to be false, Tuesday's open gapped up above prior highs at 27.30 and extended sharply higher to 28.00. Unless 28.15 is recovered through Wednesday's close, back under 27.65 would target a retest of lower prior highs down to 27.15.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's test of the 147-14 pullback limit extended down initially at Tuesday's open before recovering back up to 147-14. Its recovery Wednesday would target a retest of 148-00. Closing under 146-28 would trigger a deeper dip targeting 145-14/145-22.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's post-open dip to 92.86 seems to have sufficed for attracting more recovery sponsorship, at least for a late-morning surge to test 94.50. That fills a gap back to last Wednesday, so now pullbacks must hold 93.35-93.65 to avoid another downleg.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's narrow ranging around Monday's lows keeps open the door for any early strength Wednesday to retest Monday's 4.18 high.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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