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Goodbye, Crude Oil Bounce

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Cease fire rumors coming from Gaza Tuesday helped 89.60 resistance hold Monday's test.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Monday's crude oil rally could have extended slightly higher, but it was not expected to last, regardless. Tuesday's reaction down showed the risk of holding a speculative long based on a story when it has already tested resistance.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Tuesday firmed back up to 81.00-81.05 resistance, which had acted as support to produce the prior high. Its recovery would be bullish, but the decline is otherwise free to resume.

Eurodollar
Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Not immediately rejecting Monday's surge on Tuesday does not necessarily validate it. A second consecutive higher close would have been bullish. Extending higher Wednesday would require gapping up.

Gold
Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
No second consecutive higher came Tuesday that would have confirmed momentum reversing up. Back under 1714.50 would still signal a new downleg underway.

Silver
Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The test of 33.00 resistance endured through Tuesday. At least no probe of a higher high was rejected, and the pullback held "lower prior highs" as support, so the rally is free to resume.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's consolidation under 151-18 resolved down under 151-04 to confirm momentum had reversed down. The drop extended to 150-12. Any lower close would target 149-26.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Cease fire rumors coming from Gaza Tuesday helped 89.60 resistance hold Monday's test. The reaction down to 86.20 fell back under the 87.20 prior highs, which held as resistance. Extending under 85.75 might be enough to produce new lows targeting 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas
Dec Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Having spent enough time through Monday absorbing Thursday's wide ranging session, a breakout above 3.80 was all but required. It was probed intraday Tuesday up to 3.84, and a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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