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Gold's New Low Still Doesn't Satisfy the Bearish Pattern


Worse yet, the teasing might even be empowering it.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Three consecutive extremely pessimistic sessions in any case would be vulnerable to a steep reaction. This setup is appearing in the long-bond, right before Friday's Employment Situation report. Look out below if the catalyst doesn't serve to reverse price up.

Dollar Basket
Friday's reaction to the Employment Situation report surged above prior highs to 82.95. Back under 82.37 and 82.25 would again signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close Monday would extend the rally considerably.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The problem with Thursday's buy signal became evident immediately following Friday's Employment Situation report. Having formed an Ascending Triangle but not yet triggering it, the pattern was vulnerable to spiking down. It did. Prior lows were tested down to 1.2955, but have held, so far, with the original parameters still valid for triggering a recovery.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite having probed above 1584.00 Thursday, the reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report plunged to a new low at 1560.40. That's still not deep enough to satisfy the pattern, despite what the recovery's attack on 1584.00 would like us to believe. Anyway, the session resolved back down to end the day testing 1575.00, so buyers gained no traction, and neither did sellers.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The outstanding requirement to probe prior lows was fulfilled at 28.33 in reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report. Closing back above 28.65 was needed to confirm that sellers gained no traction, which did hold a pullback from 29.30. Closing above 29.10 is still needed to launch a new upleg.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Trending down aggressively for 3-4 consecutive sessions had stretched the rubber band a little too far to be assured of even a knee-jerk reaction up to the Friday's Employment Situation report. There had become risk of extending the leg down sharply. In fact, the reaction plunged to within 6 ticks of the outstanding 140-08 target, which remains in-play on this leg so long as bounces now hold 141-14.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Overnight weakness was retraced, albeit not aggressively, to try producing a second consecutive recovery close. Afternoon strength extended to fresh highs well above Thursday's test of 91.45 to confirm momentum had reversed back up.

Natural Gas
Fresh highs Friday up to 3.63 avoided triggering the 3.53 sell signal targeting 3.30-3.33.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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