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Gold's Fresh Low Almost Fulfills Pattern -- Almost


Multiple sessions of "ineffectual optimism" should have greater consequences than a momentary dip.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Could gold's fresh low Wednesday be the product of distribution into and out of the weekend? Could it be the reward for having absorbed Monday's surge? Probably not, but sellers must prove that quickly to avoid an even higher interim surge.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's retest of 82.37 would now be bearish if reversed back under 82.25. It extended higher to attack Friday's 82.60 high, so a reversal should be obvious soon if valid.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Price drifted lower during Wednesday's "inside day," again not threatening the 1.3105-1.3113 buy signal targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's dip to fresh lows at 1566.40 was too shallow and too brief to fulfill what the pattern has been projecting. Nevertheless, it reacted up quickly to retest 1584.00 resistance that held Monday's opening surge. And 1575.00 was being tested through the close yet again. If a more serious probe of fresh lows isn't underway soon after Thursday's open, then a much bigger detour up could be underway targeting at least 1595.50-1601.00.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's late-morning surge held a test of Tuesday's 29.10 high, reacting down almost to 28.65. Closing above 29.10 would likely avoid fresh lows.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Not recovering above 143-22 kept the pattern vulnerable to lower lows gaining traction. Still, Wednesday's gap down may have been premature. Extending down further Thursday ahead of Friday's NFP could setup a bullish reaction to the report.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Crude oil's recent price dip is obviously the result of fewer buyers. Could that reduction have been insiders with early knowledge of Chavez being on death's door (if not already dead)? Price firmed Tuesday up to 91.00, and Wednesday's 89.55 low attacked Tuesday's low to within $.20. That might have bought time for a recovery, but not rallying soon after Thursday's open would make a much deeper drop likely.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's reaction down from Monday's attack 3.60 extended lower Wednesday, targeting 3.30-3.33.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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