Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Gold Seems Interested in Temporarily Visiting New Lows


The next pop in gold may be accompanied by a false break lower in crude oil.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's extended decline may have resumed the hunt for new lows prematurely. My premise for crude oil coming alive depends upon gold action coming down, which seems unlikely Friday. Perhaps the next pop in gold will be accompanied simultaneously by a false break lower in crude oil before each reverses more substantially.

Dollar Basket
An overnight dip to 81.55 was recovered back above Wednesday's highs on Thursday, but without signaling the rally's resumption.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday night's test of 1.3140 buy signal was retraced back into the range Thursday. A fresh high would still target 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The reaction down from Tuesday's Bernanke surge went on to retrace all the way back down to and through its 1584.00 origin by $10. A corrective bounce was expected before reversing all the way back down to the lows. Now a corrective bounce would be triggered above 1584.00 targeting 1596.50, but this leg may intend to test 1562.50, first.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's drop back down to last Friday's 28.40 close does not signal momentum reversing down, but it does make the rally difficult to resume without first probing fresh lows under 28.30. Back above 29.00 first would target 29.85 and probably 30.20.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
(Rolling coverage to Jun front-month, which trades at a 1-16 discount to Mar)
Having only dipped down to 143-19/143-22 instead of gapping down, no sell signal was triggered. Thursday's gap up to test 144-00 drifted back down into negative territory. There is potential to continue drifting a little lower, but no active sell signal.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The narrow ranging around 93.00 persisted through Thursday. The range's first breakout is still expected to be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. The first break is likely to be down, but I would prefer fading the break instead of positioning for it.

Natural Gas
Spiky action around the EIA report retested Wednesday's 3.47 opening gap. Its resistance held, leaving outstanding an attraction back down to 3.30-3.33 before a credible rally can begin. Nevertheless, closing first back above Wednesday's 3.55 high - now that its opening gap has filled - can get a benefit of the doubt for being able to extend higher, so long as 3.47 then holds as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos