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Gold Seems Interested in Temporarily Visiting New Lows

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The next pop in gold may be accompanied by a false break lower in crude oil.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's extended decline may have resumed the hunt for new lows prematurely. My premise for crude oil coming alive depends upon gold action coming down, which seems unlikely Friday. Perhaps the next pop in gold will be accompanied simultaneously by a false break lower in crude oil before each reverses more substantially.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
An overnight dip to 81.55 was recovered back above Wednesday's highs on Thursday, but without signaling the rally's resumption.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday night's test of 1.3140 buy signal was retraced back into the range Thursday. A fresh high would still target 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The reaction down from Tuesday's Bernanke surge went on to retrace all the way back down to and through its 1584.00 origin by $10. A corrective bounce was expected before reversing all the way back down to the lows. Now a corrective bounce would be triggered above 1584.00 targeting 1596.50, but this leg may intend to test 1562.50, first.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's drop back down to last Friday's 28.40 close does not signal momentum reversing down, but it does make the rally difficult to resume without first probing fresh lows under 28.30. Back above 29.00 first would target 29.85 and probably 30.20.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
(Rolling coverage to Jun front-month, which trades at a 1-16 discount to Mar)
Having only dipped down to 143-19/143-22 instead of gapping down, no sell signal was triggered. Thursday's gap up to test 144-00 drifted back down into negative territory. There is potential to continue drifting a little lower, but no active sell signal.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The narrow ranging around 93.00 persisted through Thursday. The range's first breakout is still expected to be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. The first break is likely to be down, but I would prefer fading the break instead of positioning for it.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Spiky action around the EIA report retested Wednesday's 3.47 opening gap. Its resistance held, leaving outstanding an attraction back down to 3.30-3.33 before a credible rally can begin. Nevertheless, closing first back above Wednesday's 3.55 high - now that its opening gap has filled - can get a benefit of the doubt for being able to extend higher, so long as 3.47 then holds as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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