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Gold Doth Not Protest Too Much


Take a look at the intraday action in gold and other commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Not yet extending its first recovery leg, gold had become vulnerable to reversing down sharply. That it fell only slightly Friday does keep the door open for another day.

Dollar Basket
Friday's gap up to fresh highs peaked short of touching the 80.20 target, and it spent the session ranging narrowly around the rally's 79.79 prior target. A close above 80.20 is still required to put into play any higher objectives.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Despite gapping down well under 1.3225, Friday's session largely ranged narrowly around 1.3225. Closing under it would still launch a new downleg targeting 1.3080.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Exploiting the recovery back above 1657.00 was long overdue. Friday's dip may have helped by stretching the rubber band back under 1657.00. But a rally above 1663.00 to at least 1675.00 and higher is the least to expect if a downleg isn't underway already.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Since Friday's session was spent entirely under 30.25 prior highs without extending down, its recovery through any close should launch a rally leg targeting 31.65.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
An overnight dip to 147-23 recovered back to Thursday's 148-17 high into Friday's open. An afternoon dip only attacked 148-00 instead of breaking it to trigger a downleg.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's retest of Thursday's high suggests that not confirming Wednesday's breakout wasn't distributive. There is still room down to 89.30 before suggesting that sellers may be retaking control.

Natural Gas
The week's "ineffectual pessimism" had suggested the interim rally attempts were actually chipping away at resistance. Friday's open gapped up to 3.40 and attacked prior highs around 3.50. Plenty of time was spent hovering under prior lows to reflect more "ineffectual pessimism." Not extending higher immediately Monday would be very bearish for not being able to exploit the bullish setup.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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