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Euro Hits Another Fresh Low


It's not a buy signal, but it makes the next recovery attempt more likely to succeed.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Yet another fresh euro low Thursday was unavoidable, but it wasn't likely to extend. Its intraday recovery reflected even greater buying pressure. But it ended at resistance, and it needs to resume the rally early Friday or else risk an actual new downleg.

Dollar Basket
A probe of fresh highs retraced back under 82.80-82.85 to the last relative low, now likely targeting 82.10. That offers the potential once again of triggering the 82.37-82.25 sell signal, and now with added momentum.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's brief probe of fresh lows did not prevent another, but it did make the reaction to another more likely to extend up. Thursday's brief probe of fresh lows did extend back up top test 1.3005, and a second consecutive higher close Friday could turn momentum up sharply.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite gapping down to test 1575.00-1579.00, there was no extension down, and the reaction back above 1590.00 suggests that a test of 1601.00 is in-play. Gapping down immediately back under 1584.00-1587.00 may be the only way to resume the decline earlier.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's pullback low under 28.85 wasn't likely to be the bottom, but an attempt to extend it was likely to fail. In fact, Thursday's opening gap down to 28.55 reacted back up immediately, eventually testing 28.85 as resistance. This is still not a buy signal, but it does help to confirm that a bottom is forming.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's closing back above 141-10 but under prior highs required sellers to take immediate control. Thursday's open did gap down considerably, but it did not extend. Its reversal back up into positive territory must once again be rejected immediately to avoid at least a corrective rally back to 142-10 and then higher.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's dip to the 91.90 pullback limit required the rally to resume immediately. Thursday's gains were firm, but stopped short of probing fresh high. There continues to be no reason to delay the rally.

Natural Gas
The rally extended to its highest levels at 3.80 resistance, clearly not interested in any corrective dip, let alone back down to 3.30-3.33.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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