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Euro Holds Yet Another Dive Back to Its Low


It's not a buy signal, but it makes the next recovery attempt likelier to be a success.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro's plunge Wednesday retested recent lows. Like the prior low it followed, Wednesday's low also probed new lows. And like the prior low it followed, Wednesday also avoided a new low close. That's not bullish without recovering all of Wednesday's decline. And it doesn't prevent probing another fresh low. But it does suggest that reversing up from the next fresh low would make it able to gain traction and extend higher.

Dollar Basket
Avoiding the sell signals Tuesday allowed Wednesday's opening surge to extend from 82.60 to fresh highs above 83.05. Back under 82.80-82.85 would be likely to retrace the week's gains back down to last Thursday's 82.10 close.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Retracing at least 61.8% of Friday's plunge and retracing back to its 38.2% retracement Tuesday required the rally to resume without delay to avoid retesting the lows. The open immediately plunged under the 1.2955 prior low, and tried recovering it into the close. There was already no bullish reason to revisit the lows at this stage, so not immediately rallying Thursday would again be likely to extend down.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite probing more of the 1596.50-1601.00 bounce limit early Wednesday, its reaction down fully tested the 1584.00-1587.00 pullback limit. It held, but its break could still put new lows back into play.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's close around 29.20 was already suspicious before Wednesday's gap down to immediately probe under 29.10. Extending down filled the gap back to Monday's 28.85 close and held it. That's not enough to form a bottom, but it does further suggest that a new downleg is unlikely.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Momentary strength Wednesday was reversed back under the 141-10 bounce limit to suggest the decline's momentum remains intact, targeting 140-08.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's opening surge to 93.40 held Tuesday's high instead of extending the rally, but that wasn't required at that stage. Only that pullbacks hold any test of 91.90 support, which was essentially the session low. Now the rally should again resume without much further delay.

Natural Gas
Fresh highs are not a sell signal, but Wednesday's fresh high allowed raising the sell signal to 3.61, in addition to 3.53, targeting 3.30-3.33.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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