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Did the Euro Finally Break?


A much bigger rally could soon be underway.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Has the euro finally launched a new downleg? Without confirming Thursday's drop on Friday, a much bigger rally could soon be underway.

Dollar Basket
81.45's recovery Wednesday was extended sharply higher Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday - preferably above 82.10 - would confirm a new rally leg is underway.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Testing and retesting of 1.3333 finally gave way to sharply lower lows Thursday. The delay requires a second consecutive lower close Friday to confirm that a new downleg is actually underway, preferably under 1.3220.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's failure to confirm Tuesday's breakout enabled a deeper pullback Thursday that held its 1405.50 pullback limit. A retest of Wednesday's 1428.30 opening gap is now likely.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's key reversal wasted no time filling both outstanding gaps below down to 23.80. A retest of Wednesday's 24.93 opening print is now likely.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's initial follow-through from Wednesday's drop back to 132-10 held a test of 131-30 instead of closing under it to confirm momentum had reversed down.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The shock to the system of having probed the 110.65 target temporarily up to 112.25 was still being absorbed Thursday. There is no new signal.

Natural Gas
Thursday's early strength to test 3.65 ultimately created extra room to absorb a negative knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report down to 3.51. The recent range held its probe from above, and recovered into the close above 3.57. The rally can now extend so long as 3.54 holds as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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