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Did Gold Finish Its Corrective Bounce, or End Its Bear Market?


Any higher would no longer be just a detour on the way to new lows.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's peak Tuesday touched what should be the peak of its corrective bounce. Except for possibly being probed slightly higher, extending any higher Wednesday would start to suggest a $50-60 rally lies ahead.

Dollar Basket
The decline did not resume Tuesday, but recent highs were only attacked up to 83.35 and not yet probed.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's failure to recover its intraday probe of fresh lows - if not simply for probing fresh lows - resolved down Tuesday, putting into play 1.2740-1.2765 so long as 1.2955 isn't recovered.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's break back above 1609.00 extended higher to touch its 1615.00 target. Back under 1608.50 would signal the rally had ended. Otherwise, above 1618.00 would signal the bear market had ended.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's opening probe into negative territory held its 28.65 support and reacted up sharply to a fresh high that held its 29.10 resistance. The session closed negative, as the week-long choppy range continues as expected.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Holding the 142-24 pullback limit Monday kept alive the potential to 144-00,which was tested to within 1 tick at Tuesday's high. Potential to 145-18 now depends upon holding 143-12 as support. Under 142-28 would signal momentum reversing down, probably to resume the decline targeting 140-08.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally needed to extend higher without delay to prove that Monday's recovery had gained traction. But 94.00 was barely attacked before reversing back down to attack the 91.90 pullback limit. Any lower would target 90.75, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

Natural Gas
Monday's "ineffectual optimism" didn't prevent a break higher Tuesday that nearly fulfilled the rally's 4.00 target.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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