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Did Friday's Employment Report Break the Bond's Back?


Gold swung back from its negative reaction to the report. Can bonds recover?

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Huge reactions to Friday's Employment Situation report were most evident in gold and bonds. Gold swung back from its negative reaction. Can bonds recover from Friday's steep loss?

Dollar Basket
The reaction up extended higher Friday to 80.65, dropping to finish the day testing 80.40. So long as 80.10 holds as support, the rally is next targeting 81.00.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The reaction down extended lower Friday to 1.2877, bouncing to finish the day testing 1.2930. So long as 1.3000 is not recovered, the drop is next targeting 1.2825.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
A plunge in reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report did what Thursday's session did not, probing under Wednesday's low. The steep reaction up recovered back to Thursday's 1705.00 high. Having printed a fresh low does allow a bigger bounce than just to 1710.00, probably to 1720.00 or 1725.00, so long as 1698.00 now holds as support.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's steep reaction down on the Employment Situation report did not probe fresh lows before reacting back up. The reaction up probed Thursday's highs only temporarily. Closing above 32.25 would target 34.00, but there is otherwise no active signal.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Multiple sessions of "ineffectual optimism" were only creating pent-up selling pressure, which Friday's Employment Situation report released. Slicing through 150-14 on the way to 149-11 expended a lot of energy, making it a struggle to close under the 149-18 sell signal.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday's deep gap down neither extended Friday nor retraced, but instead was consolidated. Any fresh low under 85.85 would still be likely to resume the drop targeting 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's rally was retraced Friday rather than resuming it. Now no rally effort will be credible without first probing the week's lows under 3.53.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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