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Cyprus News Forces Euro to Retest Its Low


Either the low's support has been chipped away to allow a downleg, or a recovery can begin.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Yet another temporary probe of fresh lows Monday, regardless of its trigger being the Cyprus news, puts the euro hours away from either extending down on a new downleg or else making it obvious that a bottom has formed.

Dollar Basket
Monday's reaction up to the Cyprus news was very modest considering Friday's close at the upper-end of the 82.52-82.40 sell signal had expended all available selling pressure without gaining traction. Not extending down immediately could only react up sharply, which the open did. Now a close back under 82.65 is needed to resume any sell-off attempt.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The Cyprus news ended what had been a two-day recovery back to the prior Thursday's close, which could not tolerate being delayed. The consequence of yet another probe of the lows did not extend down, but almost any further delay Tuesday in resuming the recovery would suggest a new downleg will soon be underway.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The Cyprus new triggered a gap up overnight well above the outstanding 1601.00 objective to attack 1608.00. A reaction down filled the gap back to Friday's ~1591.00 close before recovering to fresh highs above 1610.00. Above 1609.00 would now target 1615.00, if not also 1666.00-1673.00. Closing under 1596.50 would signal a final downleg underway to new lows.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The range widened as was expected, albeit for unexpected reasons, as 29.10 resistance defined Sunday night's high. Its reaction down avoided the 28.65 sell signal.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's close had created potential above 142-10 to 143-20, which is where Sunday night's open gapped up. Potential to 144-00 remain intact so long as pullbacks now hold 142-24 as support.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Sunday night's gap down to retest the 91.90 pullback limit was recovered back into positive territory attacking 94.00. A lot of energy was expended, but only a brief dip back into the range could be tolerated - if even that - before resuming the rally.

Natural Gas
Gapping up to probe a fresh high Monday was retraced back into Friday's range, but never into negative territory. The "ineffectual optimism" cannot tolerate a weaker open if 4.00 remains in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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