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Crude Oil's Drop Has Backed It Into a Corner

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If the pattern isn't resolving up almost immediately Friday, then it might not for a while.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's bad day is trying to invalidate the confirmed breakout that had been very productive through Wednesday's close. This pattern should not only resolve one way or the other on Friday, but would also likely do so aggressively, and extend sharply into next week.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Thursday's gap down to fresh lows testing 82.15 now require that bounces hold any test of 82.45-82.50 to maintain the 81.40 target.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The rally's minimum 1.3140 target was met Thursday. So long as pullbacks were to hold 1.3065, the rally can extend higher to 1.3325.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Overnight weakness down to 1553.00 was recovered intraday by rallying up to 1567.00 and retesting what had been Monday's "higher prior lows," and also Wednesday afternoon's lows on the way down. It should be the bounce's peak. Recovering 1575.00 would trigger a much bigger bounce with potential up to 1597.00.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's narrow range remained under the 27.90 bounce limit that keeps alive the drop's 27.15 target.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
It's interesting that the recent dip didn't extend down while stocks surged to new highs. Any initial recovery attempt would be that much more credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's breakout above 94.15 was retraced entirely Thursday back down to the pattern's original 93.35-93.65 pullback limit. Closing back above 94.15 Friday would be credible for resuming the rally. But delaying a recovery - whether or not extending down - would be bearish.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Getting EIA out of the way allowed a recovery of Wednesday's high and for that to extend back up to Monday's 4.18 high. Any higher close Friday would trigger a breakout.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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