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Crude Oil Rallies Into the Weekend, but Is a New Leg Underway?


The bottom was expected, and timely, but perhaps a little too aggressive.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's rally into the weekend certainly validates the significance of meeting Thursday's pullback target, but it doesn't yet confirm a new rally leg is underway.

Dollar Basket
Friday's inside day following Thursday's gap down to new lows doesn't terminate the decline's momentum, but it does suggest that a fresh low would be recovered and potentially reversed back up.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's test of 1.3400 was retraced Friday to attack 1.3333, which needs to hold as support to maintain the rally's potential for extending higher to 1.3580.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday's choppy ranging Friday initially backed off from 1312.50, but ultimately recovered it. Regardless, there has yet to be trending above ti to confirm a new rally leg underway.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The recovery tested its 20.50 objective Friday, filling an outstanding gap, which should only temporarily delay extending to the next higher objective at 21.50.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Early weakness was muted Friday, and anyway recovered to test Thursday's high. There is no new signal, while awaiting the potential for breaking back under 133-10 to test fresh lows at 131-06.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
An overnight probe above the 104.25 buy signal was retraced overnight, but then probed again more strongly intraday to end Friday testing 106.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the 103.55 target's test was complete. Pullbacks should meanwhile hold any test of 104.65-104.75.

Natural Gas
Friday's 3.22 high held a test of the recent slide's "higher prior lows" while also filling a gap above. Probing any higher early Monday would be likely to extend intraday, probably at a steep slope.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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