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Crude Oil Gets Crushed Trying to Resume, Complete Its Bear Market


History does often repeat, so beware another temporary rejection.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil was crushed at Thursday's open, right back down to levels that were last tested by also gapping down. History does often repeat, so beware another temporary rejection. Otherwise, extending down to new lows without another corrective bounce could lead to a very durable bottom.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's reaction up from Tuesday's probe under the decline's 79.75 target extended sharply higher Thursday to test 80.30. A better bottom would have formed from first probing a fresh low, and there is potential for a test of 80.40 to end the rally.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's reaction down from probing above the rally's 1.3050 target extended sharply lower Thursday to 1.2950. A better top would have formed from first probing a fresh high, and there is potential for a test of 1.2930 to end the decline.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
After Wednesday's recovery from a fresh low at 1686.00 stopped short of actually reversing momentum back up, Wednesday's low was attacked at Thursday's open down to 1687.10. Despite not actually probing a fresh low, Thursday reversed up into positive territory above Wednesday morning's 1702.70 prior high. The bounce has potential for extending up to 1710.00, where another downleg would be likely.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's opening dip nearly touched Wednesday's 32.58 low before reversing up sharply into positive territory at 33.33, above the prior two sessions' highs, and above 33.00 to further suggest that sellers are not gaining much traction.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite retracing a probe above 150-14 prior highs Wednesday, Thursday gapped up to extend the rally to 150-28. The close nevertheless attacked 150-14 as support. But momentum does not reverse down without first breaking under 150-10.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The growing likelihood for at least an obligatory dip to 86.50 was fulfilled by Thursday's gap down. Its brief reaction up failed. Extending under 85.85 would put into play a test of the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's surge extended higher only momentarily Thursday. Its reaction down was too shallow for sellers to regain control. Closing above 3.72 would still be credible for resuming the recovery.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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