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Online Advertising Spending to Outpace Print and Magazine by 2015: Forecast


Global advertising spending has made a notable comeback since contracting 9.6% in 2009.

Internet Advertising Leads the Way

Online advertising expenditures will continue to lead the market, expected to be responsible for 59% of growth in total spending. It's expected to grow 15.2% in 2012, and 14-15% annually from 2013 through 2015. ZenithOptimedia predicts that social media and mobile advertising will play a significant role in driving online ad spending; the company noted that online firms large and small -- in particular Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) -- are pushing for new, more effective platforms.

ZenithOptimedia's research on ad revenue per user shows that although rates are still low, they have improved -- from $9 per user in 1995 to $49 per user in 2011. The three biggest mobile ad networks as of 2011 were Google (AdMob: 24.8%), Apple (iAd:18% share), and Millennial Media (17.7% share). Facebook is expected to enter this market in 2013.

Online advertising spending has been quickly eroding traditional print ad spending's dominance in the market. From 2002 to 2012, global Internet ad spending grew 15%, while print advertising shrunk 12%, and magazine spending decreased by 5%.

In related news, the New York Times (NYSE:NYT) announced today that it would be downsizing its newsroom staff -- again. Newsweek Magazine (NASDAQ:IACI), formerly one of the most influential news magazines in the US, announced earlier this fall that it would be ceasing publication of its print edition.

ZenithOptimedia predicts online ad spending will jump from an 18% marketshare in 2012, to 23.4% in 2015. Meanwhile, traditional print advertising will shrink by 1% annually. At this rate, by 2013 Internet advertising will become larger than newspaper advertising, and by 2015 it will surpass newspaper and magazine advertising combined.

There was also good news for investors in major cable companies. TV advertising will remain relatively stable as the marketplace shifts over the next few years. It's expected to drive 39% of global advertising spending growth, and will account for 40.2% of advertising spending -- the largest proportion of total ad spending -- by 2015.

Twitter: @brokawbrokaw
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