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Trading Radar: Big Data Coming Next Week

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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With earnings season basically over there aren't many reports coming besides Kroger (NYSE:KR) and Dollar General (NYSE:DG) on Thursday.

However, we do have an impressive load of economic data on the way.

We'll kick off Monday with the important November ISM Index, and the September/October construction spending numbers. It's also likely that market research firms will release estimates of online and retail sales over the Black Friday weekend. However, it's important to note that those numbers don't always mean much in terms of earnings.

Tuesday will see the release of November car and truck sales.

Wednesday will be a quite busy day, with the MBA Mortgage Purchase Index, September/October new-home sales, ISM Services, crude oil inventories, and the Fed's Beige Book coming out. We'll also get the November ADP employment report, which could give a preview of Friday's big jobs report.

On Thursday, November Challenger Job Cuts, October factory orders, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, and last week's jobless claims and natural gas inventories will be released.

And as noted, Friday is the biggie with the November non-farm payrolls report hitting at 8:30 a.m. EST, along with October personal income and spending numbers. Later on Friday morning, the University of Michigan consumer confidence report will be issued.

We'll also be seeing a fair volume of international data, including interest rate decisions from the ECB, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain, and GDP numbers for the eurozone and Australia.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is now up 27% year-to-date with almost no volatility despite mass political uncertainty (including a government shutdown), three not-so-hot earnings seasons, and average-at-best economic trends.

The question is whether next week's data even matters to the nonstop upward action -- it's just not clear. Market participants have taken the attitude that good economic news is good because it shows things are back on track. And if economic data is bad, it's actually good, too, because it means a tapering of QE and/or an increase in interest rates gets pushed out further into the future.

Monday, December 2

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:58 Markit Final US PMI - prior 54.3
09:00 ISM Milwaukee - expected 55.00, prior 57.10
10:00 ISM Manufacturing - exp 55.4, prior 56.4
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - exp 54.5, prior 55.5
10:00 Sep/Oct Construction Spending - Oct exp 0.4%
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI - exp. 50.5, prior 50.9
08:30 CHF procure.ch Purchasing Managers Index - exp. 54.0, prior 54.2
08:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - exp. 52.5, prior 52.5
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - est. 51.5, prior 51.5
09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing - est. 56.2, prior 56

Earnings

Before:
Cooper Tire (CTB)

After:
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)

Tuesday, December 3

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - prior 41.4
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bill
14:00 Total Vehicle Sales - expected 15.7M, prior 15.15M
14:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - exp 12M, prior 11.73M

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. - est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI - prior, 56.3
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings - prior 0.1%
03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision - est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%
09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction - est. 59.0, prior 59.4
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index - prior 47.9

Earnings

Before:
Bank of Montreal (BMO)

After:
United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Wednesday, December 4

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 ADP Private Payrolls - expected 175K, prior 130K
08:30 Trade Balance - exp -$40.2B, prior -$41.8B
10:00 ISM Services - exp 55.1, prior 55.4
10:00 Sep/Oct New Home Sales - Oct exp 430K
10:30 Crude oil inventories
14:00 Fed's Beige Book

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product - est. 0.7%, prior 0.6%
00:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product - est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%.
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI - prior 52.6
08:15 CHF Industrial Production - prior -1.1%
08:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services - est. 54.5, prior 54.5
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services - est. 51.5, prior 51.5
09:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services - est. 62.0, prior 62.5
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. - est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. - est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales - est. 1.0%, prior 0.3%
15:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision - est. 1.00%, prior 1.00%
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds - prior ¥1405.6B
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks - prior -¥91.6B

Earnings

Before:
G-III Apparel (GIII)
Brown Forman (BF.B)

After:
Avago Technology (AVGO)
Guess (GES)
Synopsis (SNPS)

Thursday, December 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:30 Challenger Job Cuts
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – expected 330K, prior 323K
08:30 Continuing Claims – expected 2858K, prior 2876K
08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ (second estimate) - exp 3.1%, prior 2.8%
08:30 Personal Consumption - exp 1.5%, prior 1.5%
08:30 GDP Price Index - exp 1.9%, prior 1.9%
10:00 Factory Orders - exp -0.9%, prior 1.7%
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Trade Balance - est. -375, prior -284M
09:30 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence - prior -11
12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision - est. 0.50%, prior 0.50%
12:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target - est. 375B, prior 375B
12:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision - est. 0.25%, prior 0.25%
12:45 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate - est. 0.00% prior 0.00%
13:30 EUR ECB President Draghi press conference
22:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index - prior 54.4

Earnings

Before:
Jos A Bank (JOSB)
Conn's (CONN)
Dollar General (DG)
Kroger (KR)
Smithfield Food (SFD)
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
UTI Worldwide (UTIW)

After:
Cooper Cos (COO)
Esterline Techs (ESL)
Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Friday, December 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - expected 181K, prior 204K
08:30 Private Payrolls - exp 175K, prior 212K
08:30 Manufacturing Payrolls - exp 9K, prior 19K
08:30 Unemployment Rate - exp 7.2%, prior 7.3%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY - prior 2.2%
08:30 Personal Income - exp 0.3%, prior 0.5%
08:30 Personal Spending - exp 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY - prior 0.9%
08:30 PCE Core YoY - exp 1.1%, prior 1.2%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (preliminary) - prior 75.1
15:00 Consumer Credit - exp $14.25B, prior $13.74B

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Leading Index - est. 109.8, prior 109.2
05:00 JPY Coincident Index - est. 109.9, prior 108.4
08:15 CHF Consumer Price Index - est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
08:15 CHF CPI EU Harmonized - prior 0.0%
09:30 GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths - prior 3.2%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. - est. -0.9%, prior 3.3%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. - est. 4.1% prior 7.9%
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate - est. 7.0%, prior 6.9%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment - est. 7.5K, prior 13.2K
13:30 CAD Full Time Employment Change - prior 16

Earnings

Before:
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Big Lots (BIG)
Scotiabank (BNS)

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