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Trading Radar: China's Growth Prospects Take Center Stage


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.


It's been another volatile week, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) hitting a new-all time high on Wednesday at 1902.17 before selling off by 2%. And, in keeping with trends, the small-cap Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) remained weak.

Next week, Markit will release its Flash Manufacturing PMI data for China. Investors are eager to see if China's manufacturing activity has turned up after four straight months of contraction.

In Europe, Markit will release its Flash Eurozone PMI Composite data, as well as numbers for France and Germany.

On the domestic side, the National Association of Realtors will release its Existing Home Sales report for April, and the US Bureau of the Census will release its New Home Sales report for April. Strong numbers could indicate additional pent-up demand for housing that was originally held back by the weather. March saw a great deal of speculative activity in new homes, suggesting that some buyers have been trying to get in at low prices before the weather improved, pulling prices up.

Housing stocks have been very weak since March, and upside surprises could drive bullish action in the sector.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its minutes on Wednesday. One interesting point of discussion will be the reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's upgrade of its economic assessment. Recent data, such as the weak preliminary first-quarter GDP number, indicates that the economy isn't very strong right now and thus not supportive of an upgrade. Market participants will also watch for the Fed's thoughts on the futures of the Fed funds rate, including possible timing and magnitude of future rate hikes.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a commencement address to NYU, but she will likely not make any comments on monetary policy.

Earnings season is rapidly slowing. However, many retailers are on deck for next week, including Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Tiffany (NYSE:TIF), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Target (NYSE:TGT), PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM), and Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD).

Weak retail earnings, such as those from Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) this week, have some traders worried, which means expectations are low. That dynamic benefited J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) and JW Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) on Friday, as each rose sharply after beating consensus earnings estimates.

Monday, May 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 6 to 7-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills
12:10 Williams (dove, nonvoter) and Fisher (hawk, voter) discuss monetary policy in Dallas
12:50 Former Chair Bernanke speaks in Dallas

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

No major economic reports

Campbell Soup (CPB)
Valspar (VAL)

Hertz Global (HTZ)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Tuesday, May 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
No major economic reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
12:30pm Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks on economy in Washington
1:00pm Dudley (dove, voter) speaks on business economics in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Leading Index
06:00 EUR German PPI
08:30 GBP CPI & PPI


Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
Home Depot (HD)
Medtronic (MDT)
Staples (SPLS)

Analog Devices (ADI)
Intuit (INTU) (CRM)

Wednesday, May 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - prior 3.6%
2:00 FOMC Minutes


10:00am Dudley (dove, voter) speaks on regional economy and jobs in New York
11:00am Yellen (dove, chair) gives commencement speech at NYU
12:50pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks on economy and banking in Washington
1:30pm Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks on monetary policy in Washington
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Consumer Confidence
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (May advance)


Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)
Hormel Foods (HRL)
Lowe's (LOW)
PetSmart (PETM)
Target (TGT)

Aegean Marine Patrol (ANW)
L Brands (L)
NetApp (NTAP)
Tiffany (TIF)

Thursday, May 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 310K, prior 297K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2675K, prior 2667K
08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
09:45 Markit US Preliminary PMI (May) - exp 55.5, prior 55.4
10:00 Existing Home Sales (Apr) - exp 4.69m, prior 4.59m
10:00 Leading Index - exp. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
11:00 Kansas City Fed - exp. 7, prior 7
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.1b bonds in 22- to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 10-year TIPS (reopening)
4:00pm Williams (dove, nonvoter) speaks in San Francisco
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing Flash PMI (May)
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May prelim)
08:30 GBP GDP (1Q prelim)
08:30 GBP Current Account Balance
08:30 GBP 1Q Trade Balance
12:30 CAD Retail Sales


Best Buy (BBY)
Canon (CAJ)
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Patterson Companies (PDCO)
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC)
Sears Holding (SHLD)
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)

Aeropostale (APO)
Brocade (BRCD)
Gamestop (GME)
Gap (GPS)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Marvell (MRVL)
Ross Stores (ROST)

Friday, May 23

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 New Home Sales (Apr) - exp 423K, prior 384K

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German GDP (1Q final)
08:00 EUR German IFO - current situation, expectations
12:30 CAD CPI


Foot Locker (FL)

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