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Trading Radar: Will the Rest of April Live Up to the Hype of Payrolls?


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

Friday capped off a very volatile week for US equities. Even though the major indices moved little and their respective measures of volatility remain low, the intraday volatility was much much more extreme than what we've seen in recent weeks. The average daily trading range in the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) was in excess of 16.75 points, and it was larger than that for the small-cap Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT), considering the Russell 2000's index price is two-thirds that of the S&P.

Next week will feature the first pieces of April economic data in the form of retail sales, consumer and producer price indexes, and housing starts. The April nonfarm payrolls report had explosive month-to-month growth, and the rest of the month's economic activity will need to match up for investors to remain confident that growth isn't faltering. Because the establishment and household surveys in the payrolls report showed two very different pictures, investors have questioned the accuracy of the 288,000 topline growth in jobs.

The first report of the week, retail sales, has some slightly negative underlying figures in the same-store and auto sales columns. Johnson Redbook same-store sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in April, and ICSC chain-store sales rose 3.23%. Auto sales fell to an annual rate of 15.98 million from 16.33 million in the month prior.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 2% year-on-year in April, and producer prices are expected to rise 1.7%. Much of these increases are likely due to the recent rise in food prices -- we've seen price hikes in milk, lean hogs, and coffee, for example -- but the index that tracks prices except for energy and food should remain unchanged. Housing starts and building permits for April are expected to show 3.8% and 1.8% growth, respectively, from the prior month as buyers return to the market after the harsh winter weather.

Now that the ECB has made its rate decision and investors have been pulling forward the expected date of the central bank's easing, the focus will shift to other parts of the globe. Japan is set to report preliminary first-quarter GDP on Wednesday night, and key Chinese industrial and retail reports are due out Tuesday morning. These will be focal points for investors in the week ahead.

Earnings season has generally wound to a close for most companies and only a few releases are still on the schedule. Notable reports for the week ahead are Deere (NYSE:DE), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Macy's (NYSE:M), and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS).

Monday, May 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

2:00 Treasury Budget Statement - expected $114B, prior $112.9B
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$3b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills
12:00pm Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in Philadelphia

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Trade Balance (Mar)
CNY New Yuan Loans
07:15 CHF Retail Sales

McKesson (MCK)
Rackspace (RAX)

Tuesday, May 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism - expected 94.5, prior 93.4
08:30 Advance Retail Sales (Apr) - exp 0.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Retail Sales ex-Auto - exp 0.6%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Retail Sales ex-Auto & Gas - exp 0.5%, prior 1.0%
08:30 Import Price Index YoY - exp 0.4%, prior -0.6%
10:00 Business Inventories - exp 0.4%, prior 0.4%
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.1b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
12:30am Lockhart (dove, nonvoter) to speak in Saudi Arabia
10:30am Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) to speak in North Carolina

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Home Price Index
05:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD (Apr)
05:30 CNY Retail Sales
05:30 CNY Industrial Production
05:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Current Situation, Expectations


No major earnings

Wednesday, May 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Producer Prices Final Demand YoY (Apr) - expected 1.7%, prior 1.4%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.7%, prior 1.7%
10:00 Fed to purchase $350m-$600m notes in 10 to 17-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German CPI (Apr final)
06:45 EUR French CPI (Apr)
08:30 GBP Employment Change (3M Mar)
09:00 EUR Industrial Production
09:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report


Deere (DE)
Macy's (M)
Agilent (A)
Cisco (CSCO)
Seaworld Entertainment (SEAS)
Plug Power (PLUG)

Thursday, May 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims -  expected 320K, prior 319K
08:30 Continuing Claims -  exp 2750K, prior 2685K
08:30 Empire Manufacturing - exp 6.00, prior 1.29
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY (Apr) - exp 2.0%, prior 1.5%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Apr) - exp 1.7%, prior 1.7%
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (Mar) - exp $30B, prior $85.7B
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior $167.7B
09:15 Industrial Production MoM (Apr) - exp 0.0%, prior 0.7%
09:15 Capacity Utilization - exp 79.1%, prior 79.2%
10:00 Phily Fed - exp 14.1, prior 16.6
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - exp 49, prior 47
7:00pm Yellen (dove, chair) speaks in Washington
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (1Q prelim)
JPY Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
05:30 EUR French and German GDP (1Q prelim)
08:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Apr)
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (1Q advance)
13:00 CAD Existing Home Sales


Wal-Mart (WMT)
Kohl's (KSS)

JcPenney (JCP)
Autodesk (ADSK)
Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday, May 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Housing Starts (Apr) - expected 982K, prior 946K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 1015K, prior 990K
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (May prelim) - exp 84.5, prior 84.1
11:00 Fed purchasing $800m-$1.1b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:50 Bullard (current hawk, nonvoter) speaks in Little Rock, Arkansas

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Industrial Production
06:00 EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance


No major reports

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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