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Trading Radar: Light Week for Economic Data in the US


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

It was another crazy week for the US markets with the release of May manufacturing and jobs reports. Friday's nonfarm payrolls rose 175,000, with April's report revised to 149,000 from the previous estimate of 165,000. The unemployment rate, however, ticked up to 7.6% on a 0.1% increase in the labor force participation rate. Weekly hours worked remained steady at 34.5 after falling to 34.4 from 34.6 last month (this figure was revised up to 34.5). A continued decline in manufacturing jobs was the notable negative facet of the reports, so as a whole, the report was basically a wash.

Next week there will be very little economic data reported in the US since the broad majority of May data has already been released. May retail sales will be released on Thursday with economists expecting a 0.4% month-over-month gain. In April, sales rose by 0.1% though the ex gas figure rose by 0.7%. Unleaded gas prices, according to AAA, rose 2.27% in May, which should cause a 0.23% gain in retail sales, with all else being equal. According to FactSet Research, guidance for consumer discretionary companies (read: retail) in the upcoming quarter's earnings is skewed 88% negative, or 17 of 21, which doesn't lend to solid real growth.

The other major US datapoint for the week will be Friday's release of May industrial and manufacturing production numbers. On the whole, manufacturing production, through the results of regional and national manufacturing surveys, have showed moderate growth for the month of May as prices continued to fall and companies looked to replenish depleted inventories. Economists estimate that both industrial and manufacturing will show a 0.2% gain. Lastly, the first estimate of the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index will be released with the consensus economist estimate forecasting no change from last month's 84.5.

Next week there will also be Treasury refunding auctions with 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year durations, with the latter two being first refundings of the May issues. The auction sizes are $32 billion, $21 billion, and $13 billion, respectively.

In the global sphere, the economic releases will be more active. Over the weekend, China will release monthly figures for its retail sales and industrial production. In Europe, the UK and Switzerland will release employment data from May. Lastly, Japan will release the final estimate of its first quarter GDP and consumer confidence, and the Bank of Japan will release its latest decision on monetary policy on Tuesday morning.

Earnings will continue to be light for at least another two weeks. Notable reports for the next week include Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU), Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA), and Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE:SFD).

Monday, June 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month bills, $25b 6-month bills

09:50 Bullard speaking in Montreal

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Industrial Production
CNY Retail Sales
JPY 1Q GDP (final estimate)
04:00 CNY New Yuan Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
07:15 CHF Retail Sales
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence


Lululemon (LULU)

Navistar International (NAV)

Tuesday, June 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – prior 92.1
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.4%
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings – prior 3844
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Home Loans
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
04:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Manufacturing and Industrial Production
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate


Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Wednesday, June 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
2:00 Monthly Treasury Budget Statement – consensus -$110B
11:00 Fed buying $750m-$1b notes in 11 to 19-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $21b 10-year notes (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German CPI (2nd estimate)
08:30 GBP Employment Change
12:15 CAD Housing Starts
21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision


H&R Block (HRB)
PVH Corp. (PVH)

Thursday, June 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 345K, prior 346K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 2992K, prior 2952K
08:30 Advance Retail Sales – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Autos – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.1% (expected to be revised to -0.2%)
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.6% (expected to be revised to 0.2%)
08:30 Import Price Index MoM – consensus 0.0%, prior -0.5%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0%
11:00 Fed purchasing $2.75b-$3.5b bonds in 7 to 10-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japan Foreign Bond/Stock Buying
01:30 AUD Employment Change, Rate
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
12:30 CAD New Home Price Index
10:00 Italy selling bonds


Restoration Hardware (RH)

Friday, June 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.4%, prior 0.6%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Current Account Balance 1Q – consensus -$111.3B, prior -$110.4B
09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior -0.5%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 77.9%, prior 77.8%
09:15 Manufacturing Production – consensus 0.2%, prior -0.4%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (1st estimate) – consensus 84.5, prior 84.5
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year sector

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:00 CNY Actual FDI
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI


Smithfield Foods (SFD)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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