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Trading Radar: Jobs and Manufacturing Data Primed for a Beat


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

Another extremely volatile week continued where we left off last week. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) traded in the very large range of 1560-1620 and US Treasuries were subject to intense volatility throughout the week with one buyer or seller enough to move the 10-year yield more than five basis points. In fact, the Merrill-Lynch Treasury Options Volatility index (MOVE), or the bond market's version of the VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX), peaked at 110.98 on Monday after registering a reading below 50 last month. Chinese money market rates and emerging market FX rates stabilized later in the week as the Chinese government stepped in to provide emergency liquidity to the Chinese banking system and domestic deleveraging paused.

Next week is sure to be a quieter one as market participants take extended vacations; the US markets are closed on Thursday for the July 4 holiday. The most significant leading economic data for June will be released, however. Friday should be volatile as the June payrolls report will be released. Economists are expecting headline growth of 165,000 nonfarm payrolls and 175,000 private payrolls. The unemployment rate is forecast to drop to 7.5% from last month's 7.6%, though the 3-decimal reading in May was 7.555% so it is only 0.011% from 7.5%. For perspective on the month, the average weekly jobless claims currently stands at 345,660 after three weeks compared to the 352,500 average of four weeks in May. Manufacturing indexes and their underlying employment subdinexes have also shown very strong growth as manufacturers looked to gear up following what appears to be a cycle low in prices and inventories. The best two clues for Friday's payrolls report are the ADP private payrolls and ISM non-manufacturing index that are released on Wednesday morning.

Given the above information, the national ISM manufacturing index should show stronger growth this month. The index, set to be reported on Monday, is forecast to rise to 50.5 from 49.0 the month prior. Keep in mind that readings above 50 for ISM indexes indicate expansionary activity, while readings below 50 represent contraction. Of the regional and national manufacturing data released month-to-date, only one has shown any type of contractionary activity and the prior month's bogey is set very low.

Other economic data for the week include auto sales and the May trade balance. Auto sales have dipped in April and May consistent with the declines in consumer spending and is forecast to grow very slightly in June.

Global economic data will be very robust for the week after two essentially empty weeks. China, the eurozone, the UK, and Switzerland will release both services and manufacturing indexes for June. Retail sales will be released in Australia, the UK, and the eurozone. Lastly, on the calendar for central banks is the Bank of England and ECB on Thursday and the Australian Reserve Bank on Tuesday during the early morning hours.

The only earnings report for the week is Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ).

MONDAY, July 1

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
8:58 Markit U.S. PMI Final - June, est. 52.4
10:00am: Construction Spending - May, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing - June.- est. 50.5, prior 49
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - June, est. 50.5, prior 49.5
11:30 Treasury to sell $30b 3M bills, $25b 6M bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
Carney takes over at BoE
01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
07:30 CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index
08:00 EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
08:00 GBP Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing
08:00 GBP Net Consumer Credit
08:00 GBP Net Lending
08:00 GBP Mortgage Approvals
09:00 EUR CPI
09:00 EUR Unemployment

There are no major earnings announcements.


US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
9:45 ISM New York - June prior 54.4
10:00 Factory Orders - May, est. 2%, prior 1%
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - July, est. 49.1, prior49
11:30 U.S. to sell 4W bills
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales - June, est. 15.3m, prior 15.24m
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - June, est. 12m, prior 11.95m

Fed Speak
12:30pm: Fed's Dudley speaks on economy in Stamford, Conn.
5:45pm: Fed's Powell speaks on regulation in N.Y.

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
04:00 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Purchasing Managers Index Construction
09:00 EUR PPI


Acuity Brand Inc (AYI) will be releasing earnings.
Constellation Brands (STZ) will report before the market open.


US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications, June 28
7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, June, prior -41.2%
7:30 RBC Consumer Outlook Index, July, prior 51.8
8:15 ADP Employment Change, June., est. 160k, prior 135k
8:30 Trade Deficit, May, est. -$40.2b, prior -$40.3b
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims, June 29, est. 345k, prior346k
8:30 Continuing Claims, June 22 prior 2.965m
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 30, prior -28.3
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, June, est. 54.2, prior 53.7

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:00 CHY Non-manufacturing PMI
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
01:30 AUD Trade Balance
01:30 AUD Retail Sales
01:45 CHY HSBC Services PMI
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services PMI
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales
20:30 Bank of Japan's Kuroda delivers speech

There are no major earnings announcements.


US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
No U.S. reports; US markets closed for Independence Day holiday

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
7:00 Bank of England announces benchmark interest rate; seen remaining at 0.50%
7:45 ECB announces benchmark interest rate; seen remaining at 0.50%
8:30 ECB's Draghi holds news conference on interest rates

There are no major earnings announcements.

FRIDAY, July 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

8:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls - June., est. 165k (prior 175k)
8:30 Change in Private Payrolls - June est. 175k (prior 178k)
8:30 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - June est. 0k (prior -8k)
8:30 Unemployment Rate, June - est. 7.5% (prior 7.6%)
8:30 Average Weekly Hours - June, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
8:30 Change in Household Employment - June prior 319k
8:30 Underemployment Rate (U6) - June prior 13.8%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
05:00 JPY Leading Index
07:15 CHP Consumer CPI
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders

There are no major earnings announcements.

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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