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Trading Radar: ECB Rate Decision to Headline Next Week's Calendar


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

Friday failed to bring the equity volatility that had been priced into many markets before the government nonfarm payrolls report. The small-cap Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT), which saw the biggest relative increase in volatility protection before the report, only traded in less than a 1% range. US Treasuries saw a sharp rally in the late morning led by money manager buying of duration, which pushed the 10-year and 30-year yields below their pre-NFP levels.

As is typical after the jobs report, economic data will be lighter in the coming week. Additionally, following this past Wednesday's Fed meeting, a number of FOMC members, including Chair Janet Yellen, are scheduled to give speeches around the country. Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress next Wednesday morning, addressing the issues of monetary policy and the outlook for the US economy.

Two reports are scheduled for next week that will provide the last pieces of data for the first-quarter GDP report: March's wholesale inventories and trade balance. The total trade deficit ex-petroleum goods has largely oscillated between $15 billion and $25 billion for the past two years. Any deviations from the expected data in these two reports will affect the next estimate of first-quarter GDP.

The other reports of significance for the week are March consumer credit and the April ISM services index. Services activity makes up 68% of annual GDP and is a more important survey for attempting to discern the direction of economic activity. According to last Thursday's personal income data, consumers saved 3.9% of their disposable income, the lowest monthly rate since 2008. A surge in consumer credit would corroborate this low figure.

The most significant event for the coming week is the ECB's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Due to modest acceleration in the advance estimate of eurozone consumer prices for April -- to 0.7% year-on-year from 0.5% in March -- there have been various news leaks suggesting that the ECB will consider making asset purchases to stimulate inflation, but such a decision is not imminent. The Bank of England is also scheduled to make its monthly rate decision next Thursday morning.

Earnings season will continue through next Friday with nearly 200 companies reporting, but the majority of notable large-cap companies have already reported. Reports to watch include Disney (NYSE:DIS), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), and CBS (NYSE:CBS).

Monday, May 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 ISM Services (Apr) - expected 54.0, prior 53.1
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (final)
08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI

Pfizer (PFE)
Sysco (SYY)
Tyson Foods (TSN)

Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Vivus (VVUS)
ChannelAdvisor (ECOM)
RetailMeNot (SALE)

Tuesday, May 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Trade Balance (Mar) - expected -$40.2B, prior -$42.3B
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.1b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 3-year notes
7:00pm Stein (board, hawkish) speaks in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI (final April)
08:30 GBP Services PMI (Apr)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM)
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)

Emerson Electric (EMR)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)
HollyFrontier (HFC)
NuSkin (NUS)
DirecTV (DTV)
Mosaic (MOS)
Discovery Communications (DISCA)
Allstate (ALL)
Disney (DIS)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
Electronic Arts (EA)
Whole Foods (WFM)
Frontier Communications (FTR)
Office Depot (ODP)
FireEye (FEYE)
Groupon (GRPN)
First Solar (FSLR)

Wednesday, May 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity (1Q prelim) - expected -0.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs - exp 2.4%, prior -0.1%
3:00 Consumer Credit (Mar) - exp $16.1B, prior $16.489B
1:00 Treasury selling $24b 10-year notes
10:00 a.m. Yellen (chair, dove) testifies to Joint Economic Committee

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Apr minutes
NZD Employment Change
JPY Services PMI
01:30 AUD Retail Sales
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders
12:30 CAD Building Permits


Sotheby's (BID)
Molson Coors (TAP)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Devon Energy (DVN)
Duke Energy (DUK)
21st Century Fox (FOXA)
Avis Budget (CAR)
Green Mountain (GMCR)
Prudential Financial (PRU)
Annaly Capital (NLY)
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)
CF Industries (CF)
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
SolarCity (SCTY)
Zillow (Z)
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)

Thursday, May 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims -  expected 325K, prior 344K
08:30 Continuing Claims -  exp 2755K, prior 2771K
11:00 Fed purchasing $550m-$800m TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $16b 30-year bonds
9:00am Plosser (voter, hawk) speaks in New York
9:25am Evans (nonvoter, dove) speaks at Chicago banking conference
9:30am Tarullo (board, dove) speaks at Chicoag banking conference
9:30am Yellen (chair, dove) testifies to Senate Budget Committee
2:00pm Bullard (nonvoter, currently hawkish) speaks at conference in St Louis
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Trade Balance (Apr)
01:30 AUD Employment Change
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production
07:15 CHF CPI
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
12:15 CAD Housing Starts and New Home Price Index


Cablevision (CVC)
Wendy's (WEN)
Regeneron (REGN)
Dean Foods (DF)
Apollo Global Management (APO)
IntercontinentalExchange Group (ICE)
Nastionstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) (PCLN)
Stifel Financial (SF)
Symantec (SYMC)
Nuance (NUAN)
Medivation (MDVN)
RocketFuel (FUEL)
Monster Beverage (MNST)

Friday, May 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 JOLTs Job Openings - prior 4173
10:00 Wholesale Inventories - exp 0.5%, prior 0.5%
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.5b-$2b notes in 6 to 7-year range
Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks in Minnesota

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
01:30 AUD RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
08:30 GBP Manufacturing and Industrial Production
12:30 CAD Employment Change (Apr)
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Apr)


Ralph Lauren (RL)
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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