Satyajit Das: 6 Ways the Cyprus Solution Will Exacerbate the European Debt Crisis
Irrespective of the fate of Cyprus, the way the problem was solved has set a dangerous precedent.
The proposed restructuring effectively cripples the Cypriot banking industry, which is a major part of the economy and employs over 50% of workers. The transfer of losses to depositors and imposition of capital controls make it highly likely that activity will shift to other locations.
Russian businesses are unlikely to continue to patronize Cyrus. Press reports quoted one Russian business man's wry observation that the EU had killed Cyprus in one day: "When the Russians leave who is going to stay at the Four Seasons for $500 a night? Angela Merkel?"
Economic activity in Cyprus is expected to contract by between 15-25% over the next few years. Unemployment will also rise. The slowdown will reduces Cyprus' capacity to pay back its creditors.
Irrespective of the fate of Cyprus, the solution adopted will exacerbate the European debt crisis.
Firstly, the transfer of losses to depositors creates a dangerous precedent. In 147 banking crises since 1970 tracked by the IMF, no depositors, irrespective of the amounts held and the banks with whom the deposits were placed, suffered losses.
Depositors in weak banks in weak countries now may consider the risk of loss or confiscation. This may trigger capital flight from banks in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.
If depositors withdraw funds in significant size and capital flight accelerates, then the ECB, national central banks and governments will have intervene, funding affected banks and potentially restricting withdrawals, electronic funds transfers and imposing cross-border capital controls.
Banks runs and capital flights are difficult to control once they commence. As outgoing Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King argued it was not rational to start a bank run but rational to participate in one under way.
Secondly, the Cyprus bail-in provision will make it increasingly difficult for European banks, especially in vulnerable countries to raise new deposits or issue bonds. The ECB, national central banks, and governments will have to cover any funding shortfalls.
Thirdly, the Cyprus arrangements undermine the credibility of the ECB and EU and measures announced last year to combat the crisis, which have underpinned the recent relative stability.
The ECB's OMT (Outright Monetary Transactions) facility allows it to purchase sovereign bonds to assist nations to finance and lower their cost of borrowing. The facility, which has not yet been used, requires the affected country to apply for assistance. After Cyprus, it will be politically difficult for countries like Italy and Spain to ask for assistance if required, knowing that if a future debt restructuring is necessary then domestic taxpayers face a loss on their bank deposits.
Cyprus highlights the shortcomings of the EU's much vaunted "banking union." The arrangements did not provide sufficient funds to undertake any required re-capitalization of banks, an alternative to the levy on deposits. Cyprus also highlights the lack of a eurozone-wide consistent deposit protection scheme, backed by EU funds.
Fourthly, the Cyprus package highlights the increasing reluctance of countries like Germany, Finland, and the Netherlands as well as the IMF to support weaker eurozone members. Domestic political consideration and popular resistance to commitment of further taxpayer funds to such bailouts make such assistance increasingly problematic.
Fifthly, the negotiations surrounding the Cyprus bailout revealed policy maker's lack of understanding of the problems and the effects of policies. It also revealed significant differences between eurozone members and also between Europe and the IMF.
Sixthly, the EU by agreeing to potentially indefinite capital controls has effectively created a two tier euro, undermining the single currency in the long term.
The problems in Europe will affect the US is many ways. Europe is America's largest trading and the slowdown in economic activity will affect exports and also American businesses operating in Europe. Second order effects will include the effects on China and other emerging market which trade with Europe, which will flow on to US businesses.
A second channel of transmission will be the currency markets. The weak US dollar has assisted the US economy. Concern about the European real economy and also the debt crisis will put upward pressure on the dollar, which will reduce American export competitiveness.
A final channel of transmission will be the banking system. Problems in European banks, including funding difficulties, will flow through into large US money center banks, which in turn will pass them on to smaller banks and the US financial system.
In any debt crisis, there are several possible methods of allocating losses. The borrower bears the losses, either through austerity or bankruptcy. The lenders bear the losses. Some rich relative (in Europe read Germany) bails out the indebted borrower. Another option is to just to ignore issues, fudge the numbers, and hope that fortunate events will remedy the problems. Europe has now tried all of the above.
Unfortunately, in each attempt at resolution, as shown by the proposed Cyprus package, the measures have become the problem rather than a solution. Unfortunately, the Europe's problems will not stay confined to Europe.
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