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Trading Radar: Backlogged Economic Data Catches Up to Market; Apple, Facebook Earnings on the Way

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) made a new marginal high on Tuesday at 1759, but traded below that level through the rest of the week. Treasuries continued their rally, recording a positive week. Last week's gains were negated on the last day, which typically leads to negative follow-through in the coming week.

A lot of backlogged government economic data will be released next week. This includes industrial production, retail sales, and producer and consumer price indices. Retail sales could be very light for September due to a sharp slowdown in auto sales, gasoline prices, and same-store sales. In addition, consumer confidence dropped sharply in the month as reported by Reuters, Conference Board, and Bloomberg indices. The ISM national manufacturing survey is also due out on Friday.

The October nonfarm payrolls report were delayed due to the government shutdown. They will now be released on November 8. Economists estimate that payrolls will grow by 150,000 in the month. Undoubtedly, the numbers will be subject to a lot of noise from government-related contractors who were temporarily laid off during the month.

The FOMC two-day monthly monetary policy meeting next week will conclude on Wednesday. It is very unlikely that the Fed will make any changes in policy because the advance estimate of third quarter GDP was delayed and won't be out until next week, along with a number of economic data releases. The Fed will still not be able to fully quantify the effect of the government shutdown on the economy, but it seems likely it will announce new goals related to GDP growth rather than unemployment in the coming meetings.

Two major focuses for next week are Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) earnings. Recently, Apple has been in the headlines due to activism by investor Carl Icahn. Icahn is attempting to push the company into buying back $150 billion of shares. Facebook's stock price has doubled this year and will have to deliver continually strong results in order to justify its exorbitant earnings multiple. (See also: Weekend Apple Inc. Roundup: The Real Star of Apple's Big Event Was...)

Monday, October 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.4%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78%, prior 77.8%
09:15 Manufacturing Production – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.7%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 2.9%
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing – prior 12.8
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $34b 3-month bills, $30b 6-month bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b in 2 –year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Leading Index

Earnings

Before:
Merck (MRK)
Biogen (BIIB)
After:
Masco (MAS)
Apple (AAPL)
Riverbed (RVBD)
Linn Energy (LINE)


Tuesday, October 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Sep Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 0.6%, prior 1.4%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Sep Retail Sales – consensus 0.0%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.1%
09:00 Aug S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.62%
09:00 S&P/CS HPI YoY – consensus 12.4%, prior 12.39%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.4%
10:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence – consensus 75.0, prior 79.7
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Retail Sales
JPY Employment
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
06:30 INR Reserve Bank of India Rate Decision

Earnings

Before:
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Cummins (CMI)
Pfizer (PFE)
US Steel (X)
Arch Coal (ACI)
Valero Energy (VLO)
Aetna (AET)

After:
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Aflac (AFL)
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
LinkedIn (LNKD)
Yelp (YELP)

3D Systems (DDD)
Jetblue (JBLU)
Caesar's (CZR)


Wednesday, October 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 ADP Private Payrolls – consensus 150K, prior 166K
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.2%, prior 1.5%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
1:00pm Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Industrial Production
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
08:00 EUR Spanish GDP
08:55 EUR German Employment
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence
13:00 EUR German CPI
10:30 Germany selling EU4b 10-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Hess (HES)
Corning (GLW)
Comcast (CMCSA)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Sprint (S)
Phillips 66 (PSX)

After:
Kraft Foods (KRFT)
Marriott (MAR)
Skyworks (SWKS)
Atmel (ATML)
Starbucks (SBUX)
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
MetLife (MET)
Expedia (EXPE)
Facebook (FB)
Visa (V)

General Motors (GM)


Thursday, October 31

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 RBC Consumer Outlook Index
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - consensus 310k, prior 308k
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 2863K, prior 2925K
09:00 ISM Milwaukee – prior 55.00
09:45 Chicago PMI – consensus 55.0, prior 55.7
11:00 Fed to purchase $750m-$1b bonds in 11 to 19-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Buying of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
12:30 CAD GDP

Earnings

Before:
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Clorox (CLX)
Cigna (CI)
MGM Resorts (MGM)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Ocwen Financial (OCN)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Mastercard (MA)
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Marathon Petroleum (MPO)
Discovery Communications (DISCA)

After:
AIG (AIG)
First Solar (FSLR)
Newmont Mining (NEM)


Friday, November 1

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:58 Markit Final US PMI – preliminary 51.4
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – consensus 55.0, prior 56.2
10:00 ISM Prices Paid – consensus 55.0, prior 56.5
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales – consensus 15.4M, prior 15.21M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales – consensus 11.8M, prior 11.6M

Fedspeak

9:10am Bullard speaking on monetary policy in St. Louis
11:15am Kocherlakota speaks on health care in Minn
12:00pm Lacker speaks in Philly

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI

Earnings

Before:
Chevron (CVX)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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