Ford Stock Nearing Critical Juncture
The European crisis coupled with global economic fits and starts have hit the stock hard.
On the weekly bar chart below, a fairly symmetrical, yet right leaning bearish head and shoulders pattern has formed over the past two and a half years. The neckline "band" (dotted below) should be supportive near term and assist Ford "longs" in defining their risk. Note that because this is a weekly chart, I created a support band consisting of weekly closing prices AND intra-week prices.
This pattern should be respected, though, as a sustained move below the lower band of the neckline would trigger the bearish pattern and portend much lower prices. But for now, it's just another pattern worth watching especially if you have a vested interest in the stock.
On a fundamental level, Ford analysts have been dropping earnings estimates steadily over the past few months as fears of slower global economic growth continue to weigh on the stock. Yet even with this in mind, estimates are still calling for a pickup in earnings and revenue growth next year. As such, Ford's forward P/E is just 5.80. When married up with global economic indicators and technical analysis, it is clear that the stock is moving in lockstep with the fits and starts and fears and whims of a global fiscal cliff.
Although better sentiment and stronger economic numbers may be a cure for what ails Ford, it is important to note that stocks typically price in what is known or foreseeable six months out... and right now, time and price have their technical eyes on the neckline support zone. You should, too.
Editor's Note: Andrew Nyquist is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. This article originally appeared on his investing and economics site, See It Market.
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