It's no secret that the Supreme Court's looming decision on President Obama's Affordable Care Act looms large over the health care stocks. Still, investors may wise to spend their time understanding how consolidation is already reshaping the health care sector ahead of the June decision.
The Supreme Court will decide whether or not Medicaid is expanded, potentially having biggest impact on Medicaid HMO's like Amerigroup
As investors weigh the decision's impact on HMO and health care stocks, they may want to focus how recent M&A moves are already altering the drug store and pharmacy benefits manager piece of health care. Recent deals signal that big changes are underway, even as many -- including the President -- hold their breath on the landmark court decision.
This week, the nation's largest drug store chain Walgreens (WAG)
Walgreens decision can't be seen in isolation, and a closer look reveals the frenetic changes underway in drug stores and pharmacy prescription plans, which touches nearly every American.
In April, the Federal Trade Commission approved Express Scripts' $29 billion acquisition of Medco Health Solutions
Underscoring big changes to the sector, in its approval of the merger, the FTC noted health care reform and the entrance of some of the nation's top health providers - currently awaiting the SCOTUS decision -- as reasons that the top three pharmacy benefits players don't control the market.
In October, Cigna
After the Express Scripts and Medco merger passed FTC tests, Walgreens faced both losses on its Express Scripts standoff and the prospect of losing billions in Medco contracts, prompting its Alliance Boots purchase, according to many analysts. Meanwhile, smaller players like SXC Health Solutions (SXCI)
With concentration in the pharmacy sector at the upper bound of what the FTC would likely be willing to stomach after CVS's acquisition of Caremark RX in 2007, analysts like John Heinbockel of Guggenheim Securities discounted Walgreens ability to cut a giant scale deal in the U.S. such as an acquisition of Rite Aid (RAD)
So how might investors interpret the changes underway in the pharmacy benefits space, as they await the Supreme Court's decision.
Heinbockel of Guggenheim is bullish on Rite Aid -- in spite of the company's billions in debt - because it may pick up U.S. market share from Walgreens as it loses customers on its Express Scripts standoff. On Thursday, Rite Aid's stronger than expected quarter earnings helped to vindicate Heinbockel's call in March for investors to focus on the company's earnings over a potential Walgreens takeout. After Walgreens international move, those earnings may only continue to be bolstered.
"We think Walgreens appears highly unlikely to settle with Express Scripts anytime soon, meaning Rite Aid's benefit could approach $60 million. And if those new customers are with Rite Aid for a full year and/or become Wellness+ cardholders, it will be difficult for Walgreens to get them back, enabling the benefit to hold steady and grow slightly over time," wrote Heinbockel in a Friday note to clients re-iterating his buy rating and $2.25 price target.
In a series of ratings upgrades, Credit Suisse analysts point to SXC Health Solutions after its acquisition of Catalyst, and Cigna as two players to watch in the pharmacy benefits space.
On Friday analyst Glen Santangelo upgraded both SXC and Catalyst to outperform, even after the recent outperformance of both companies on high expectations for their merger. While SXC expects $125 million in earnings boosting synergies through the merger, Santangelo says that those estimates may be conservative and bases his upgrade on projections that the deal will add earnings per share of $1.30 a year by 2014, pushing combined EPS to $4.50.
Like Rite Aid, SXC may also be able to win over more customers than some investors expect, notes Santangelo, who adds that the combined company's 40%-plus three year growth rate is near tops in the sector. Santangelo also upgraded Catalyst to $90 a share on an expected approval of its merger with SXC Health Solutions, and the value of the cash and stock deal.
SXC and Catalyst's merger may also help to offset the prospect of customer losses to HealthSpring
On Friday, Credit Suisse analyst Charles Boorady upgraded Cigna to outperform from neutral, on the prospect that it sells or outsources its legacy pharmacy business with a fast-growing player like SXC or CVS Caremark, after acquiring Healthspring last October. Boorady expects that Cigna is most likely to cut an outsourcing deal for its pharmacy unit, in a deal that may mirror CVS's arrangement with Aetna, which could add 39 cents or nearly 7% to 2013 earnings per share.
After Walgreens near 10% share tumble in 2012, investors may want to question whether the company's international growth strategy has been underestimated, amid rapid change in the U.S. Were prescription contracts to hold in core European countries to hold, and expected top and bottom line synergies to pan out, there are some who argue that Walgreens has snapped up a best of breed growth asset.
For those who would rather play the SCOTUS decision sweepstakes in health care, they may do well to target diversified providers like Aetna, Cigna and Coventry over Medicaid HMO based companies like Amerigroup, Molina and Centene.
Some estimate that between 16 million to 20 million new Americans would be eligible to enroll in Medicaid if the Supreme Court upholds Obamacare. If Obamacare as a whole gets thrown out, Medicaid HMOs would lose a large revenue opportunity they had expected to begin in 2014.