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<title>Minyanville - Anthony M. Cherniawski and Janice Dorn RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
</description>
<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
</copyright>
		<item>
<title><![CDATA[Last Hurrah for the China Trade?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Last-Hurrah-for-the-China-Trade253F/1/15/2013/id/47411</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 15 Jan 2013 14:30:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Last-Hurrah-for-the-China-Trade253F/1/15/2013/id/47411</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In September 2012, we highlighted the Chinese economy as one of the leading targets for hot money flows due to its relatively strong (but declining) economic growth.  Since then, the decline in economic growth appears to have slowed or leveled off.  According to China Daily, "China&#39;s economy rose 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, marking its lowest growth in more than three years and a slowdown for a seventh consecutive quarter. The country is scheduled to release fourth-quarter GDP and that for the whole of 2012 on Friday." 

Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank China, voiced expectations that ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[In September 2012, we highlighted the Chinese economy as one of the leading targets for hot money flows due to its relatively strong (but declining) economic growth.  Since then, the decline in economic growth appears to have slowed or leveled off.  According to China Daily, "China&#39;s economy rose 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012, marking its lowest growth in more than three years and a slowdown for a seventh consecutive quarter. The country is scheduled to release fourth-quarter GDP and that for the whole of 2012 on Friday." 

Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank China, voiced expectations that ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[The Bull Trap in Bonds Has Been Set!]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/The-Bull-Trap-in-Bonds-Has/1/8/2013/id/47248</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 8 Jan 2013 15:55:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/The-Bull-Trap-in-Bonds-Has/1/8/2013/id/47248</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In mid-November 2012 we wrote an article titled, Is the Bond Market a Bull Trap? Our thesis was that the Treasury bond carry trade had played itself out.  Yields were dropping, cutting the profit margins on this so-called "risk free" investment.  Granted, the asset values in Treasuries increased, offsetting the loss of income. However, each marginal unit of new investment produced lower yields and smaller increases in asset value.  Bond volatility was also on the rise. 

In early September 2012, the 10-Year US Treasury Note broke the lower trendline of a Bearish Wedge, signaling the end of the uptrend in ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In mid-November 2012 we wrote an article titled, Is the Bond Market a Bull Trap? Our thesis was that the Treasury bond carry trade had played itself out.  Yields were dropping, cutting the profit margins on this so-called "risk free" investment.  Granted, the asset values in Treasuries increased, offsetting the loss of income. However, each marginal unit of new investment produced lower yields and smaller increases in asset value.  Bond volatility was also on the rise. 

In early September 2012, the 10-Year US Treasury Note broke the lower trendline of a Bearish Wedge, signaling the end of the uptrend in ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Is the Bond Market a Bull Trap?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/bond-market-Zero-Interest-Rate-Policy/11/15/2012/id/45856</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 15 Nov 2012 09:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/bond-market-Zero-Interest-Rate-Policy/11/15/2012/id/45856</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In August, we published an article entitled The Bernanke (Ka)put. In it, we posited that the Fed cannot "print money" without certain unintended consequences. In fact, the phrase "print money" is a misnomer because the Fed actually lends money into existence. All loans must be paid back with interest. 

Since the fall of 2008, money has been pouring out of the stock market in unprecedented amounts, flooding the money markets and reducing interest rates to near zero. This has been a gift to the Fed because it can then lend money to banks at a near-zero rate. They ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In August, we published an article entitled The Bernanke (Ka)put. In it, we posited that the Fed cannot "print money" without certain unintended consequences. In fact, the phrase "print money" is a misnomer because the Fed actually lends money into existence. All loans must be paid back with interest. 

Since the fall of 2008, money has been pouring out of the stock market in unprecedented amounts, flooding the money markets and reducing interest rates to near zero. This has been a gift to the Fed because it can then lend money to banks at a near-zero rate. They ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Warning: The Stock Market Panic Button Is About to Be Pushed]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-stock-market-patterns-s2526p500/11/9/2012/id/45706</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 9 Nov 2012 09:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-stock-market-patterns-s2526p500/11/9/2012/id/45706</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In October, we published two articles suggesting that there might be a stock market panic in October (see here and here).  We were early.  Whether the delay in the potential market panic was due to organic reasons, such as the excitement leading up to the November election, or some other factor is beyond the scope of this article. What we do know is that the day after the election the stock market had its worst day since November, 2011.

On that day, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) decisively broke the Rising Wedge formation with a potential for a complete ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In October, we published two articles suggesting that there might be a stock market panic in October (see here and here).  We were early.  Whether the delay in the potential market panic was due to organic reasons, such as the excitement leading up to the November election, or some other factor is beyond the scope of this article. What we do know is that the day after the election the stock market had its worst day since November, 2011.

On that day, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) decisively broke the Rising Wedge formation with a potential for a complete ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Whose Bull Market Will Be Gored in the October Panic?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/30-year-bond-30-year-treasury/10/26/2012/id/45403</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 26 Oct 2012 15:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/30-year-bond-30-year-treasury/10/26/2012/id/45403</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Our October 4 article (Stock Market Panic in October?) outlined the dangers of a panic sell-off with particular emphasis in the month of October. 

Since then, that the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) has fallen beneath its 50-day moving average with seemingly little effect on investor confidence.  The S&P 500 Index has not seen a higher close since September 14, the day after the Fed announcement of QE3.  A review of the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows that it is now positioned less than 2% from the price level of 1395 that was highlighted in the previous ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Our October 4 article (Stock Market Panic in October?) outlined the dangers of a panic sell-off with particular emphasis in the month of October. 

Since then, that the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) has fallen beneath its 50-day moving average with seemingly little effect on investor confidence.  The S&P 500 Index has not seen a higher close since September 14, the day after the Fed announcement of QE3.  A review of the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows that it is now positioned less than 2% from the price level of 1395 that was highlighted in the previous ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Stock Market Panic in October?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-panic-stock-market-october/10/4/2012/id/44695</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 4 Oct 2012 14:55:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-panic-stock-market-october/10/4/2012/id/44695</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The panic of the Hong Kong stock market in October 1997 -- similar to the 1987 stock market crash, and with remarkable parallels to the October 1929 crash -- raises questions.  What is different about the month of October?  Is October the month where market excesses are purged?  If so, how can we tell if another panic may be imminent?

First, a little background about October stock market panics: They are worldwide. We have identified at least three one-day market panics of 10% or more in the Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI), the Hang Seng Index (INDEXHANGSENG:HSI), the Nikkei ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The panic of the Hong Kong stock market in October 1997 -- similar to the 1987 stock market crash, and with remarkable parallels to the October 1929 crash -- raises questions.  What is different about the month of October?  Is October the month where market excesses are purged?  If so, how can we tell if another panic may be imminent?

First, a little background about October stock market panics: They are worldwide. We have identified at least three one-day market panics of 10% or more in the Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI), the Hang Seng Index (INDEXHANGSENG:HSI), the Nikkei ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[King Dollar Is Dead: Long Live the King!]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/us-dollar-zero-interest-rate-policy/9/20/2012/id/44187</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 20 Sep 2012 12:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/us-dollar-zero-interest-rate-policy/9/20/2012/id/44187</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

The report of my death was an exaggeration.
-- Mark Twain

Instead of the death of the dollar, we may be witnessing the death of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).




US Treasury Bill rates are no longer .01%, as they were in the latter half of 2008 and from August 2011 to the end of January 2012.  It appears that demand has outstripped supply in 3-month US Treasuries. The effects of this phenomenon are showing up in the Fed funds rate; not only is it rising, but it has become more volatile!



On September 17, 2012, ICAP ( ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

The report of my death was an exaggeration.
-- Mark Twain

Instead of the death of the dollar, we may be witnessing the death of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).




US Treasury Bill rates are no longer .01%, as they were in the latter half of 2008 and from August 2011 to the end of January 2012.  It appears that demand has outstripped supply in 3-month US Treasuries. The effects of this phenomenon are showing up in the Fed funds rate; not only is it rising, but it has become more volatile!



On September 17, 2012, ICAP ( ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Bernanke's Announcement: Badly Framed and Poorly Timed?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/bernanke-spy-us-treasury-yields-banks/9/14/2012/id/44023</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 14 Sep 2012 13:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/bernanke-spy-us-treasury-yields-banks/9/14/2012/id/44023</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL 

Did Ben Bernanke just drop a bunker buster bomb on the markets?

Let's begin with the latest Fed announcement. The Fed&#39;s Open Markets Operations desk will immediately start buying $40 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) per month, or about $10 billion each week. At the same time, the Fed will continue Operation Twist by purchasing $45 billion in "longer-term" Treasuries, sterilized by $45 billion or so in 1-3 year bonds.  Unfortunately, at the end of the year it runs out of short-term paper to sell.

Every month in 2013, the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL 

Did Ben Bernanke just drop a bunker buster bomb on the markets?

Let's begin with the latest Fed announcement. The Fed&#39;s Open Markets Operations desk will immediately start buying $40 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) per month, or about $10 billion each week. At the same time, the Fed will continue Operation Twist by purchasing $45 billion in "longer-term" Treasuries, sterilized by $45 billion or so in 1-3 year bonds.  Unfortunately, at the end of the year it runs out of short-term paper to sell.

Every month in 2013, the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Where Does Hot Money Go Next?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/emerging-markets/articles/china-economy-chinese-economy-Shanghai-Stock/9/4/2012/id/43709</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 4 Sep 2012 15:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/emerging-markets/articles/china-economy-chinese-economy-Shanghai-Stock/9/4/2012/id/43709</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL China's economy faces many challenges going forward. The slowing world economy has dampened demand for Chinese exports.  According to the New York Times, signs that the Chinese economy is sputtering continue to mount in the form of dismal and feeble trade data, fanning expectations that Beijing will soon step up its efforts to buttress growth before a key leadership transition this autumn.



Compared to GDP growth in the US, Europe, and Japan, the Chinese growth rate, although declining, is enviable. China's economy fared better than many expected in 2011, and has emerged as a key driver of global ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL China's economy faces many challenges going forward. The slowing world economy has dampened demand for Chinese exports.  According to the New York Times, signs that the Chinese economy is sputtering continue to mount in the form of dismal and feeble trade data, fanning expectations that Beijing will soon step up its efforts to buttress growth before a key leadership transition this autumn.



Compared to GDP growth in the US, Europe, and Japan, the Chinese growth rate, although declining, is enviable. China's economy fared better than many expected in 2011, and has emerged as a key driver of global ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Looking at Japan's Government Bonds, We See the Land of the Setting Sun]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/japanese-economy-asian-economy-japanese-retirement/8/22/2012/id/43426</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 22 Aug 2012 16:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/japanese-economy-asian-economy-japanese-retirement/8/22/2012/id/43426</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL As the number of people eligible for retirement payments increases, the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has been selling domestic government bonds, or JGBs.  As reported by Bloomberg, "Payouts are getting bigger than insurance revenue, so we need to sell Japanese government bonds to raise cash," said Takahiro Mitani, president of the Government Pension Investment Fund.
 
Could this be the end of a long-running Keynesian experiment?  Efforts to jump-start the Japanese economy have succeeded in raising the GDP growth rate over 2% in only five of the last 20 years; as a result, the debt to GDP ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL As the number of people eligible for retirement payments increases, the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has been selling domestic government bonds, or JGBs.  As reported by Bloomberg, "Payouts are getting bigger than insurance revenue, so we need to sell Japanese government bonds to raise cash," said Takahiro Mitani, president of the Government Pension Investment Fund.
 
Could this be the end of a long-running Keynesian experiment?  Efforts to jump-start the Japanese economy have succeeded in raising the GDP growth rate over 2% in only five of the last 20 years; as a result, the debt to GDP ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[The Bernanke (Ka)put]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/255Etyx-255Eirx-bonds-bond-market-bernanke/8/16/2012/id/43273</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 16 Aug 2012 13:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/255Etyx-255Eirx-bonds-bond-market-bernanke/8/16/2012/id/43273</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The title of this article does not contain a typo.  According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary:


	kaÂ·put  adj k?-?pu?t, kÃ¤-, -?pÃ¼t
	Definition of KAPUT
	1: utterly finished, defeated, or destroyed
	2: unable to function
	3: hopelessly outmoded
 
Somehow, the "Bernanke Put" has become an article of faith, at least among more than a few investors.  The idea that the Fed can "print money" into infinity seems to be a central theme of the inflationist camp.  Let it be known in no uncertain terms that the Fed does not print money into existence.  It lends money into existence.  As with ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The title of this article does not contain a typo.  According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary:


	ka·put  adj k?-?pu?t, kä-, -?püt
	Definition of KAPUT
	1: utterly finished, defeated, or destroyed
	2: unable to function
	3: hopelessly outmoded
 
Somehow, the "Bernanke Put" has become an article of faith, at least among more than a few investors.  The idea that the Fed can "print money" into infinity seems to be a central theme of the inflationist camp.  Let it be known in no uncertain terms that the Fed does not print money into existence.  It lends money into existence.  As with ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Head & Shoulder Pattern Could Signal Euro Decline]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/SPY-255En225-xeu-255EGSPC-s7p500-liquidity/8/13/2012/id/43127</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 13 Aug 2012 09:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/SPY-255En225-xeu-255EGSPC-s7p500-liquidity/8/13/2012/id/43127</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Others have been noticing the steady decline in currencies, commodities, and stock indices caught by the Liquidity Cycle.  On Friday morning, August 3, the Fed announced it was "conducting 'small-value' repurchase agreements as part of its overall program to test its operation(al) readiness."  The announcement was framed as a "deminimis" action that had no significance; but, it was significant. 

It was the first such repo since December 30, 2008, and the market sat up and took notice.  Between the date of the repurchase agreements and the close on Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 3.3%.  The euro rose ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Others have been noticing the steady decline in currencies, commodities, and stock indices caught by the Liquidity Cycle.  On Friday morning, August 3, the Fed announced it was "conducting 'small-value' repurchase agreements as part of its overall program to test its operation(al) readiness."  The announcement was framed as a "deminimis" action that had no significance; but, it was significant. 

It was the first such repo since December 30, 2008, and the market sat up and took notice.  Between the date of the repurchase agreements and the close on Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 3.3%.  The euro rose ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Euro Captured by the Liquidity Cycle]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/traders-trading-trading-tips-euro-head/7/31/2012/id/42854</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 31 Jul 2012 14:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/currencies/articles/traders-trading-trading-tips-euro-head/7/31/2012/id/42854</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Forget the spin! There is no disputing that the euro is in big trouble. How much trouble may be defined technically with the Head & Shoulders pattern illustrated in the chart below that has just been triggered. This pattern projects a minimum target of 96.60, meaning the euro may drop below parity&hellip;possibly in the next two months. The trading bands offer parameters for the major cycle highs and lows. In the last two weeks the lower trading band has not given any support to the euro. Should it continue its failure pattern, the situation may be very bearish, indeed.



For ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Forget the spin! There is no disputing that the euro is in big trouble. How much trouble may be defined technically with the Head & Shoulders pattern illustrated in the chart below that has just been triggered. This pattern projects a minimum target of 96.60, meaning the euro may drop below parity&hellip;possibly in the next two months. The trading bands offer parameters for the major cycle highs and lows. In the last two weeks the lower trading band has not given any support to the euro. Should it continue its failure pattern, the situation may be very bearish, indeed.



For ]]>
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