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<title>Minyanville - Ronald Thomas, CFA RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
</description>
<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
</copyright>
		<item>
<title><![CDATA[With Little Downside, P&G Stock Is a Better Bet Than Its Peers]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/P2526G-Stock-a-Better-Bet-Than/5/22/2013/id/49968</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 22 May 2013 15:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/P2526G-Stock-a-Better-Bet-Than/5/22/2013/id/49968</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[When I first recommended Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) stock in March of last year at $68, I expected that there would be a large cut in corporate overhead followed by significantly needed price-cutting. That would spur, as it had twice in approximately the last two decades, significant increases in sales and operating income.  The stock would then rise, I thought, from the $68 that reflected a 2% five-year growth rate to the $83-$88 area, reflective of a 6-7% rate.  That 6-7% would have been reflective of a 3.5-5% sales growth rate.

PG gave investors the big cost cuts -- sort ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[When I first recommended Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) stock in March of last year at $68, I expected that there would be a large cut in corporate overhead followed by significantly needed price-cutting. That would spur, as it had twice in approximately the last two decades, significant increases in sales and operating income.  The stock would then rise, I thought, from the $68 that reflected a 2% five-year growth rate to the $83-$88 area, reflective of a 6-7% rate.  That 6-7% would have been reflective of a 3.5-5% sales growth rate.

PG gave investors the big cost cuts -- sort ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Investors Beware: Valuations in the Consumer Staples Category Show Complete Trust in Fed Kool-Aid]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Investors-Beware253A-Valuations-in-the-Consumer/5/10/2013/id/49745</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 10 May 2013 11:24:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Investors-Beware253A-Valuations-in-the-Consumer/5/10/2013/id/49745</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Since the advent of the Fed's multiple quantitative easings, I&#39;ve felt that it was conservative or rational to add something to the 30-year Treasury bond that I use as my risk-free rate for stock valuation purposes. Everybody knows what the game is, and if you are going to play (be long stocks, realizing that the rug might sometime be pulled out from under you quickly, when the Fed lets the bond market seek its own level), you had better add some margin for increased risk. I had used an extra 1% added to the long bond rate, and had been ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[Since the advent of the Fed's multiple quantitative easings, I&#39;ve felt that it was conservative or rational to add something to the 30-year Treasury bond that I use as my risk-free rate for stock valuation purposes. Everybody knows what the game is, and if you are going to play (be long stocks, realizing that the rug might sometime be pulled out from under you quickly, when the Fed lets the bond market seek its own level), you had better add some margin for increased risk. I had used an extra 1% added to the long bond rate, and had been ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Mead Johnson Nutrition's Stock Is Now Efficiently Valued]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Mead-Johnson-Nutrition2527s-Stock-Is-Now/4/18/2013/id/49351</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 18 Apr 2013 15:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Mead-Johnson-Nutrition2527s-Stock-Is-Now/4/18/2013/id/49351</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE:MJN) is up 19% since being recommended at $68 in early December 2012. $81 was my price target, based on a 9% five-year EPS growth rate.

While some consumer staples stocks have gone up more in the search for dividend yield, those stocks still have the private label specter hanging over them and will have continual sales volume pressure in the US and most likely in Europe as well. MJN should not have the pricing pressure as long as prices are not raised, which should make MJN a safer long-term holding than other staples stocks, many of ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE:MJN) is up 19% since being recommended at $68 in early December 2012. $81 was my price target, based on a 9% five-year EPS growth rate.

While some consumer staples stocks have gone up more in the search for dividend yield, those stocks still have the private label specter hanging over them and will have continual sales volume pressure in the US and most likely in Europe as well. MJN should not have the pricing pressure as long as prices are not raised, which should make MJN a safer long-term holding than other staples stocks, many of ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Family Dollar Stores: The Prices Are Too High, and So Is the Stock]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Family-Dollar-Stores-stock-price-too/4/15/2013/id/49242</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 15 Apr 2013 10:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Family-Dollar-Stores-stock-price-too/4/15/2013/id/49242</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[When I consider my estimate of Wal-Mart&#39;s (NYSE:WMT) Neighborhood Market's future effect on dollar stores, and the prices at Family Dollar Stores (NYSE:FDO) -- which are 3%+ too high vs. its competitors and which, I believe, were responsible for the recent quarterly earnings disappointment -- I believe that the stock price should be nearer $55, at best.

In December 2012, I stated that Wal-Mart's Neighborhood Market and the growth of Aldi were going to cut short the growth to saturation of the dollar stores from five to six years in sell-side analyses to nearer three years. I still stand by ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[When I consider my estimate of Wal-Mart&#39;s (NYSE:WMT) Neighborhood Market's future effect on dollar stores, and the prices at Family Dollar Stores (NYSE:FDO) -- which are 3%+ too high vs. its competitors and which, I believe, were responsible for the recent quarterly earnings disappointment -- I believe that the stock price should be nearer $55, at best.

In December 2012, I stated that Wal-Mart's Neighborhood Market and the growth of Aldi were going to cut short the growth to saturation of the dollar stores from five to six years in sell-side analyses to nearer three years. I still stand by ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Royal Caribbean: A Buy in Carnival's Wake]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Royal-Caribbean253A-A-Buy-in-Carnival2527s/3/26/2013/id/48867</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 26 Mar 2013 10:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Royal-Caribbean253A-A-Buy-in-Carnival2527s/3/26/2013/id/48867</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[With all of Carnival&#39;s (NYSE:CCL) deserved bad publicity, I am surprised that both Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) and Carnival, based on consensus EPS estimates for 2014, discount only 3% five-year EPS growth rates -- albeit I have a 7% risk discount for Royal and a lower 6% risk discount for the "higher quality" Carnival, which at this point can be considered higher quality solely on its stronger balance sheet.  

With the present federal administration, I would not expect to see an economic recovery through the end of Obama's term.  Hence, a 2% GDP growth and 2% inflation for 4% nominal GDP ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[With all of Carnival&#39;s (NYSE:CCL) deserved bad publicity, I am surprised that both Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) and Carnival, based on consensus EPS estimates for 2014, discount only 3% five-year EPS growth rates -- albeit I have a 7% risk discount for Royal and a lower 6% risk discount for the "higher quality" Carnival, which at this point can be considered higher quality solely on its stronger balance sheet.  

With the present federal administration, I would not expect to see an economic recovery through the end of Obama's term.  Hence, a 2% GDP growth and 2% inflation for 4% nominal GDP ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Newell Rubbermaid: Stock Efficiently Valued for Now]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Newell-Rubbermaid253A-Stock-Efficiently-Valued-for/3/18/2013/id/48754</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 18 Mar 2013 11:20:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Newell-Rubbermaid253A-Stock-Efficiently-Valued-for/3/18/2013/id/48754</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[After recommending Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) as a buy in April 2012 when the stock was priced at $17, the stock is up around 50% and is now efficiently valued.

The stock price at $26 -- using consensus EPS estimates of $1.82 and $2.00 for 2013 and 2014, respectively, and a 6% risk premium -- discounts a 5% five-year EPS compound growth rate.

When I recommended buying Newell Rubbermaid last year, I felt that the stock would get to $23 based on a 4% growth rate. I also said that investors would have to reassess whether management's "acceleration phase" of ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[After recommending Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) as a buy in April 2012 when the stock was priced at $17, the stock is up around 50% and is now efficiently valued.

The stock price at $26 -- using consensus EPS estimates of $1.82 and $2.00 for 2013 and 2014, respectively, and a 6% risk premium -- discounts a 5% five-year EPS compound growth rate.

When I recommended buying Newell Rubbermaid last year, I felt that the stock would get to $23 based on a 4% growth rate. I also said that investors would have to reassess whether management's "acceleration phase" of ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Coach: The Risk That No One Has Mentioned]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Coach2527s-Gross-Margin-Risk-coh-Coach/2/4/2013/id/47744</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 4 Feb 2013 16:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Coach2527s-Gross-Margin-Risk-coh-Coach/2/4/2013/id/47744</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Coach&#39;s (NYSE:COH) stock has taken a beating after its last quarterly result. Investors have just woken up to competition in the US. With this recognition has come increased promotional activity. Muted consumer demand has also been recognized as somewhat of a problem. That should not have been any surprise because of the huge amount of sales in the outlet channel.

Coach&#39;s management is emphasizing category and product extensions outside of women's handbags, and said that it would not cut prices. So analysts have cut their EPS numbers and price targets and gone on to the next company to report. A ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Coach&#39;s (NYSE:COH) stock has taken a beating after its last quarterly result. Investors have just woken up to competition in the US. With this recognition has come increased promotional activity. Muted consumer demand has also been recognized as somewhat of a problem. That should not have been any surprise because of the huge amount of sales in the outlet channel.

Coach&#39;s management is emphasizing category and product extensions outside of women's handbags, and said that it would not cut prices. So analysts have cut their EPS numbers and price targets and gone on to the next company to report. A ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[An Update on Tyson Foods: Sell It]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/tsn-Tyson-Foods-agri-business-agriculture/1/29/2013/id/47723</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 29 Jan 2013 11:25:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/tsn-Tyson-Foods-agri-business-agriculture/1/29/2013/id/47723</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Tyson Foods&#39; (NYSE:TSN) stock is now efficiently valued. You should sell it unless you think you are deft enough to make a few more dollars selling it into price momentum from better technicals (Zack's just recommended it) or earnings momentum (Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analyst just upgraded TSN based on EPS estimates above long-term normalizable earnings, and BMO recommended it last week).

In October 12, 2012&#39;s buy recommendation, I wrote:


	Tyson&#39;s stock fell from near $21 in May to $15 in July as the market over-discounted the effect of the drought in the US Corn Belt.  Higher feed pricing would ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Tyson Foods&#39; (NYSE:TSN) stock is now efficiently valued. You should sell it unless you think you are deft enough to make a few more dollars selling it into price momentum from better technicals (Zack's just recommended it) or earnings momentum (Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analyst just upgraded TSN based on EPS estimates above long-term normalizable earnings, and BMO recommended it last week).

In October 12, 2012&#39;s buy recommendation, I wrote:


	Tyson&#39;s stock fell from near $21 in May to $15 in July as the market over-discounted the effect of the drought in the US Corn Belt.  Higher feed pricing would ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[An Update on Darden Restaurants]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/An-Update-on-Darden-Restaurants-dri/12/5/2012/id/46386</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 5 Dec 2012 13:24:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/An-Update-on-Darden-Restaurants-dri/12/5/2012/id/46386</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Unrealistic pricing finally caught up with Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) and holders of Darden&#39;s stock yesterday. The stock fell 10% to $47.

For some background, here is my April 2012 comment, When Will Relative Pricing Catch Up With Darden&#39;s Olive Garden?, which is still pertinent:


	Back in the early to mid 1990s, Olive Garden was a fast-growing restaurant concept. It was priced at the low end of casual dining concepts, perhaps above the bar and grille sub-segment, which is the traditional leader of the low end of casual dining.
	
	Looking at the Italian chains back then, there was a ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Unrealistic pricing finally caught up with Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) and holders of Darden&#39;s stock yesterday. The stock fell 10% to $47.

For some background, here is my April 2012 comment, When Will Relative Pricing Catch Up With Darden&#39;s Olive Garden?, which is still pertinent:


	Back in the early to mid 1990s, Olive Garden was a fast-growing restaurant concept. It was priced at the low end of casual dining concepts, perhaps above the bar and grille sub-segment, which is the traditional leader of the low end of casual dining.
	
	Looking at the Italian chains back then, there was a ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Why Mead Johnson Is a Buy]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Why-Mead-Johnson-Is-a-Buy/12/5/2012/id/46364</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 5 Dec 2012 12:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Why-Mead-Johnson-Is-a-Buy/12/5/2012/id/46364</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Mead Johnson (NYSE:MJN) stock fell from a high of $87 in July to $62 in early November when the pediatric nutrition maker announced that it lost significant market share in China after raising prices. While some of that market share has been gained back, many observers believe that 2013 earnings comparisons will be tough, especially in the first half.

Mead Johnson is one of the only food stocks that I have any confidence in, given the present environment. That is mainly because of the heavy international skew to its earnings growth.

Branded baby formula sells at big premiums ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Mead Johnson (NYSE:MJN) stock fell from a high of $87 in July to $62 in early November when the pediatric nutrition maker announced that it lost significant market share in China after raising prices. While some of that market share has been gained back, many observers believe that 2013 earnings comparisons will be tough, especially in the first half.

Mead Johnson is one of the only food stocks that I have any confidence in, given the present environment. That is mainly because of the heavy international skew to its earnings growth.

Branded baby formula sells at big premiums ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Wal-Mart's Neighborhood Markets Pose Threat to Dollar Stores]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/wmt-walmart-Walmart-Express-dollar-stores/11/30/2012/id/46223</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 30 Nov 2012 10:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/wmt-walmart-Walmart-Express-dollar-stores/11/30/2012/id/46223</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[At Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) latest analyst meeting, the company said that it would accelerate the rollout of its Neighborhood Markets stores that, at 40,000-square-feet, are about a quarter to a third of the size of a typical supercenter. The Neighborhood Markets grocery stores are designed to penetrate urban settings that do not allow for supercenters. The current roll-out rate is approximately 100/year.

Analysts took this news to mean the company would not be growing its Wal-Mart Express concept, which is basically a dollar store. With this, the sell side, at least, breathed a collective sigh of relief for the long-term growth ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[At Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) latest analyst meeting, the company said that it would accelerate the rollout of its Neighborhood Markets stores that, at 40,000-square-feet, are about a quarter to a third of the size of a typical supercenter. The Neighborhood Markets grocery stores are designed to penetrate urban settings that do not allow for supercenters. The current roll-out rate is approximately 100/year.

Analysts took this news to mean the company would not be growing its Wal-Mart Express concept, which is basically a dollar store. With this, the sell side, at least, breathed a collective sigh of relief for the long-term growth ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Chipotle Mexican Grill: From Overvalued to Efficiently Priced]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/chipotle-chipotle-stock-panera-panera-stock/10/22/2012/id/45232</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 22 Oct 2012 16:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/chipotle-chipotle-stock-panera-panera-stock/10/22/2012/id/45232</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[[Editor&#39;s note: This story originally ran on February 24. We&#39;re re-running it since author Ron Thomas made such an articulate case for Chipotle being overvalued at its then-$387 stock price. Reached today for comment, Thomas said, "At $238, it has essentially reached my $236 valuation published in February. I believe that it is now efficiently valued."]
	
	MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL I was doing some housekeeping recently and noticed some large-cap stocks I didn&#39;t have models for, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG). So I put Chipotle's $387 stock price into my three-stage earnings-per-share discounting model to see what was imbedded in the price. ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[[Editor&#39;s note: This story originally ran on February 24. We&#39;re re-running it since author Ron Thomas made such an articulate case for Chipotle being overvalued at its then-$387 stock price. Reached today for comment, Thomas said, "At $238, it has essentially reached my $236 valuation published in February. I believe that it is now efficiently valued."]
	
	MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL I was doing some housekeeping recently and noticed some large-cap stocks I didn&#39;t have models for, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG). So I put Chipotle's $387 stock price into my three-stage earnings-per-share discounting model to see what was imbedded in the price. ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Why Tyson Foods Is a Buy]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Tyson-Foods-investing-in-Tyson-Foods/10/12/2012/id/44950</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 12 Oct 2012 15:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/Tyson-Foods-investing-in-Tyson-Foods/10/12/2012/id/44950</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL)  I believe that  Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) is 30% undervalued and that, all things being equal, the stock price could gain back much of its undrevaluation by summer of 2013. At today&#39;s stock price low of $15.94 and the target price is $21-22 (analysis below). Tyson stock fell from near $21 in May to $15 in July as the market over-discounted the effect of the drought in the US corn belt, in my opinion.

Of course it could rise sooner on any of a variety of catalysts (including winter rain/snow that increases ground moisture at spring planting).

One thing ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL)  I believe that  Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) is 30% undervalued and that, all things being equal, the stock price could gain back much of its undrevaluation by summer of 2013. At today&#39;s stock price low of $15.94 and the target price is $21-22 (analysis below). Tyson stock fell from near $21 in May to $15 in July as the market over-discounted the effect of the drought in the US corn belt, in my opinion.

Of course it could rise sooner on any of a variety of catalysts (including winter rain/snow that increases ground moisture at spring planting).

One thing ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Chipotle Mexican Grill: So Overvalued in So Many Ways [UPDATE]]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/chipotle-chipotle-stock-panera-panera-stock/7/24/2012/id/42712</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 24 Jul 2012 16:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/chipotle-chipotle-stock-panera-panera-stock/7/24/2012/id/42712</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor&#39;s note: This article originally published on Minyanville on February 24. 

UPDATE, July 24, 2012: Analysts downgraded burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) today after yesterday&#39;s earnings announcement, which was a mixed bag of news. Second quarter earnings were $2.56/share on revenues that -- although they rose 20.9% year over year to $690.9 million -- did not meet the top-line estimates analysts had made. During the quarter, Chipotle opened 55 restaurants including its first in Paris, France. The company has a total of 1,316 outlets.

The stock has been involved in a correction, according to investors. In June, ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor&#39;s note: This article originally published on Minyanville on February 24. 

UPDATE, July 24, 2012: Analysts downgraded burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) today after yesterday&#39;s earnings announcement, which was a mixed bag of news. Second quarter earnings were $2.56/share on revenues that -- although they rose 20.9% year over year to $690.9 million -- did not meet the top-line estimates analysts had made. During the quarter, Chipotle opened 55 restaurants including its first in Paris, France. The company has a total of 1,316 outlets.

The stock has been involved in a correction, according to investors. In June, ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Lowe's Undeserved Discount to Home Depot]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/lowe2527s-lowes-home-depot-lowe2527s-stock/6/29/2012/id/42105</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 29 Jun 2012 14:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/lowe2527s-lowes-home-depot-lowe2527s-stock/6/29/2012/id/42105</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL  Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) share almost a duopoly in home supply at this point, and are at the same place on their store maturity, which is to say fully built out. Their stores are similar. And their respective sizes are close enough that neither can out muscle the other, so their business risk is about equal. But they sell at different valuations. Home Depot, at $52 per share, using consensus sell side EPS estimates of  $2.92 and $3.32 for 2012 and 2013, respectively, and a 6% risk premium, discounts a 7.5% five-year growth rate in EPS. ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL  Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) share almost a duopoly in home supply at this point, and are at the same place on their store maturity, which is to say fully built out. Their stores are similar. And their respective sizes are close enough that neither can out muscle the other, so their business risk is about equal. But they sell at different valuations. Home Depot, at $52 per share, using consensus sell side EPS estimates of  $2.92 and $3.32 for 2012 and 2013, respectively, and a 6% risk premium, discounts a 7.5% five-year growth rate in EPS. ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[A Closer Look at Kohl's]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/JCP-KSS-WMT-TGT-COST-costco/6/21/2012/id/41876</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 21 Jun 2012 10:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/JCP-KSS-WMT-TGT-COST-costco/6/21/2012/id/41876</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I saw that JC Penney&#39;s (JCP) lost sales from its changeover from couponing to Every Day Low Pricing ("EDLP") had not gone disproportionately to Kohl's (KSS), it&#39;s most direct competitor, I was surprised since as a rule, a dissatisfied department store customer would go to another department store. Instead, the JC Penney customer dropped out of the department store category and traded down to discount stores.

But having looked more closely at Kohl's, I believe that it is suffering from the same extreme consumer tradedown as JC Penney.

Kohl's reported a flat comp store sales number in ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I saw that JC Penney&#39;s (JCP) lost sales from its changeover from couponing to Every Day Low Pricing ("EDLP") had not gone disproportionately to Kohl's (KSS), it&#39;s most direct competitor, I was surprised since as a rule, a dissatisfied department store customer would go to another department store. Instead, the JC Penney customer dropped out of the department store category and traded down to discount stores.

But having looked more closely at Kohl's, I believe that it is suffering from the same extreme consumer tradedown as JC Penney.

Kohl's reported a flat comp store sales number in ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Valuing JC Penney After President Michael Francis' Departure]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/jc-penney-jcp-EDLP-strategy-every/6/20/2012/id/41868</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 20 Jun 2012 15:05:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/jc-penney-jcp-EDLP-strategy-every/6/20/2012/id/41868</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In my previous two comments on JC Penney (JCP), I have repeated that getting the public to go for an EDLP (everyday low pricing) strategy would be a tough sell. In my last comment, I stated that it looks as though the consumer is even more price sensitive than I would have thought. 

I also am very sure that the consumer turned out to be more price sensitive than both CEO Ron Johnson and the company&#39;s president Michael Francis expected, as lost sales from JC Penney did not stay in the department store realm but went mostly to ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In my previous two comments on JC Penney (JCP), I have repeated that getting the public to go for an EDLP (everyday low pricing) strategy would be a tough sell. In my last comment, I stated that it looks as though the consumer is even more price sensitive than I would have thought. 

I also am very sure that the consumer turned out to be more price sensitive than both CEO Ron Johnson and the company&#39;s president Michael Francis expected, as lost sales from JC Penney did not stay in the department store realm but went mostly to ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Dropping the Dime on JC Penney]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/jc-penney-jc-penneys-jcp-retail/6/11/2012/id/41604</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 11 Jun 2012 08:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/jc-penney-jc-penneys-jcp-retail/6/11/2012/id/41604</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Bottom line: JC Penney&#39;s (JCP) fundamental position is worse -- and the challenges facing it more dire -- than many investors thought.

A year ago, the struggling retailer hired Ron Johnson, the former head of Apple&#39;s (AAPL) retail stores, as CEO. In addition to his credits at Apple, which included creating the stores&#39; open layouts, Johnson had been at Target (TGT) and played a role in the makeover of its stores, which included high-profile, highly publicized designer partnerships.

On the day Johnson was named Penney&#39;s CEO, the stock climbed just over $5 to $35.37/share. At the end of ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Bottom line: JC Penney&#39;s (JCP) fundamental position is worse -- and the challenges facing it more dire -- than many investors thought.

A year ago, the struggling retailer hired Ron Johnson, the former head of Apple&#39;s (AAPL) retail stores, as CEO. In addition to his credits at Apple, which included creating the stores&#39; open layouts, Johnson had been at Target (TGT) and played a role in the makeover of its stores, which included high-profile, highly publicized designer partnerships.

On the day Johnson was named Penney&#39;s CEO, the stock climbed just over $5 to $35.37/share. At the end of ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Procter & Gamble Thoughts]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/procter-and-gamble-pg-p2526g-procter/5/11/2012/id/40959</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 11 May 2012 14:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/procter-and-gamble-pg-p2526g-procter/5/11/2012/id/40959</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I was an MBA student at Cornell, a Procter & Gamble (PG) representative made a presentation to our marketing operations class.  The only thing I remember was a small sort of suitcase that opened up wide in the middle to show eight different bottles of Mr. Clean liquid cleaner. 

The purpose, as I remember, was to show the advantages of lots of market research into consumers&#39; conscious or unconscious reactions to small packaging differences.  It was like the puzzle books of the time that would show you a black-and-white drawing of some scene and ask you what ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I was an MBA student at Cornell, a Procter & Gamble (PG) representative made a presentation to our marketing operations class.  The only thing I remember was a small sort of suitcase that opened up wide in the middle to show eight different bottles of Mr. Clean liquid cleaner. 

The purpose, as I remember, was to show the advantages of lots of market research into consumers&#39; conscious or unconscious reactions to small packaging differences.  It was like the puzzle books of the time that would show you a black-and-white drawing of some scene and ask you what ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Potential Purchases for Mom From an Investor's Point of View]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/mother2527s-day-mother2527s-day-stock-mother2527s/5/9/2012/id/40850</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 9 May 2012 15:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/consumer/articles/mother2527s-day-mother2527s-day-stock-mother2527s/5/9/2012/id/40850</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL If you really feel that you can buy something personal for your mom, why not go to a Coach (COH) store and buy her a purse? Nice gift if she never owned one.  Hopefully she is not one of the market overhang of people that already has two or three in her closet.  On the other hand, maybe she would welcome another? 

Where should you buy this purse?  Well, if you want to pay as little as possible for the Coach name you should go to an outlet mall; after all that's where half of Coach's US business ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL If you really feel that you can buy something personal for your mom, why not go to a Coach (COH) store and buy her a purse? Nice gift if she never owned one.  Hopefully she is not one of the market overhang of people that already has two or three in her closet.  On the other hand, maybe she would welcome another? 

Where should you buy this purse?  Well, if you want to pay as little as possible for the Coach name you should go to an outlet mall; after all that's where half of Coach's US business ]]>
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