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<title>Minyanville - Peter Prudden RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
</description>
<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
</copyright>
		<item>
<title><![CDATA[A Cautious Case: Why Investors May Encounter One Last Long-Term Buying Opportunity]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Stock-Market-Update-255EGSPC-Citigroup-Surprise/2/11/2013/id/47932</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 11 Feb 2013 11:27:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Stock-Market-Update-255EGSPC-Citigroup-Surprise/2/11/2013/id/47932</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[The current P/E for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) stands at 17x 2013 EPS expectations, which is a multiple expansion of 2 from November 18, 2012. Wall Street&#39;s consensus for EPS growth for 2013 is forecasting a 10% increase in operating profits, or $110 per share, up from 2012's $102 per share. When you strip out financials, the current growth prospects for EPS is actually -2.5%, based upon revised downward guidance quarter over current quarter. According to BTIG, 80% (45 out of 56) of the companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2013 have issued negative EPS guidance. If 80% ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[The current P/E for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) stands at 17x 2013 EPS expectations, which is a multiple expansion of 2 from November 18, 2012. Wall Street&#39;s consensus for EPS growth for 2013 is forecasting a 10% increase in operating profits, or $110 per share, up from 2012's $102 per share. When you strip out financials, the current growth prospects for EPS is actually -2.5%, based upon revised downward guidance quarter over current quarter. According to BTIG, 80% (45 out of 56) of the companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2013 have issued negative EPS guidance. If 80% ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Where Is The Panic Bottom in Apple?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2013/01/25/where-is-the-panic-bottom/</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 25 Jan 2013 13:47:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2013/01/25/where-is-the-panic-bottom/</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[We had interesting developments Wednesday as many key themes may have come to the surface for 2013.

I provided my thoughts on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ahead of earnings, the keys to the quarter and what I would be looking for on the call.

First and foremost, what does the company intend to do with its stockpile of cash? We did not receive an answer, bad for the stock. Secondly what were the iPhone numbers? Below consensus estimates and the whisper of 50 million.

Additionally we received "realistic guidance" and that left much to be desired. Weak for the stock. Nothing on ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[We had interesting developments Wednesday as many key themes may have come to the surface for 2013.

I provided my thoughts on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ahead of earnings, the keys to the quarter and what I would be looking for on the call.

First and foremost, what does the company intend to do with its stockpile of cash? We did not receive an answer, bad for the stock. Secondly what were the iPhone numbers? Below consensus estimates and the whisper of 50 million.

Additionally we received "realistic guidance" and that left much to be desired. Weak for the stock. Nothing on ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[A Trepidatious Trader]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/bull-market-bear-market-market-analysis/9/26/2012/id/44440</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 26 Sep 2012 14:05:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/bull-market-bear-market-market-analysis/9/26/2012/id/44440</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL At this time, I am seeing the post-Fed sideways to down market as a minor correction, which should give way to a rally so long as past resistance, 1420 holds. 

	
		 


	
		The Federal Reserve has initiated a program of unintended consequences: Unlimited, open ended, unending unsterilized money printing.
		
		Prior to this course of action, the underlining strength of the broader market displayed a significant number of daily, weekly, and monthly divergences against the prior highs established in 2011 and 2012. Yet since I highlighted the price action in July, SPX 1325, as a rather bullish explosive set-up based upon ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL At this time, I am seeing the post-Fed sideways to down market as a minor correction, which should give way to a rally so long as past resistance, 1420 holds. 

	
		 


	
		The Federal Reserve has initiated a program of unintended consequences: Unlimited, open ended, unending unsterilized money printing.
		
		Prior to this course of action, the underlining strength of the broader market displayed a significant number of daily, weekly, and monthly divergences against the prior highs established in 2011 and 2012. Yet since I highlighted the price action in July, SPX 1325, as a rather bullish explosive set-up based upon ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Is the Summer of 2011 Repeating Itself?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/monetary-intervention-euro-crisis-euro-crisis/7/9/2012/id/42259</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 9 Jul 2012 11:25:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/monetary-intervention-euro-crisis-euro-crisis/7/9/2012/id/42259</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL From a contrarian perspective, a bearish scenario is taking the stage, since the only hope for the markets is now a very crowded "buy the Fed" trade. But is that perspective inhibiting many from recognizing that fundamentals suggest a 1982 market rally may lead us into the year&#39;s home stretch? This is most likely not the case -- and here's why.

China and eurozone woes have landed on our shores. As the year unfolds, eurozone unemployment rates are rising -- and manufacturing readings contracting -- at levels not seen since the inception of the EU. The EU unemployment ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL From a contrarian perspective, a bearish scenario is taking the stage, since the only hope for the markets is now a very crowded "buy the Fed" trade. But is that perspective inhibiting many from recognizing that fundamentals suggest a 1982 market rally may lead us into the year&#39;s home stretch? This is most likely not the case -- and here's why.

China and eurozone woes have landed on our shores. As the year unfolds, eurozone unemployment rates are rising -- and manufacturing readings contracting -- at levels not seen since the inception of the EU. The EU unemployment ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Is an Oversold Rally in the Works?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/FB-AAPL-S2526P-500-spy-tlt/5/18/2012/id/41113</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 18 May 2012 16:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/FB-AAPL-S2526P-500-spy-tlt/5/18/2012/id/41113</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL What we have witnessed over the course of the past seven weeks following the equity markets peak is a delayed reaction in price to the overall underlying health of the broader market.

From a technical standpoint, our markets peaked in February, yet price drifted marginally higher. As the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rang the bell on our target of 1365 +/- 15 basis point handles, we paused. It was not a shorting opportunity, based upon the persistent bearishness that grew as price moved higher. But after weeks of basing between our levels, the market set itself up for a ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL What we have witnessed over the course of the past seven weeks following the equity markets peak is a delayed reaction in price to the overall underlying health of the broader market.

From a technical standpoint, our markets peaked in February, yet price drifted marginally higher. As the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rang the bell on our target of 1365 +/- 15 basis point handles, we paused. It was not a shorting opportunity, based upon the persistent bearishness that grew as price moved higher. But after weeks of basing between our levels, the market set itself up for a ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Dreams of a Market Downdraft Drifting in the Distance]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/markets-Federal-Reserve-government-debt-central/4/24/2012/id/40583</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 24 Apr 2012 12:25:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/markets-Federal-Reserve-government-debt-central/4/24/2012/id/40583</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE EXCLUSIVE: The coming weeks will be the most important for the stock market since the March 2009 bottom. For the past three years, we have lived in a world shaped and secured by accommodating Federal Reserve policies. Record low interest rates accompanied by the printing of trillions of dollars have kept the country from experiencing a credit flow cardiac arrest.

As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to in late March, further quantitative easing would require a weakening economy or signs thereof.  Almost as if scripted, we received a March non-farm payroll report that slipped and fell on ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE EXCLUSIVE: The coming weeks will be the most important for the stock market since the March 2009 bottom. For the past three years, we have lived in a world shaped and secured by accommodating Federal Reserve policies. Record low interest rates accompanied by the printing of trillions of dollars have kept the country from experiencing a credit flow cardiac arrest.

As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to in late March, further quantitative easing would require a weakening economy or signs thereof.  Almost as if scripted, we received a March non-farm payroll report that slipped and fell on ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Irrational Exuberance? Not Yet, but Working Our Way Toward It]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/irrational-exuberance-stock-market-volulme-stock/3/21/2012/id/39976</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 21 Mar 2012 14:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/irrational-exuberance-stock-market-volulme-stock/3/21/2012/id/39976</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade.
-- Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996

We&#39;re in the late innings of a bear market rally fueled by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus designed to lure ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade.
-- Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996

We&#39;re in the late innings of a bear market rally fueled by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus designed to lure ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[I Shorted the United States Treasury Market (And You Should, Too)]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/bond-market-bond-market-bubble-TLT/3/15/2012/id/39908</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 15 Mar 2012 12:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/bond-market-bond-market-bubble-TLT/3/15/2012/id/39908</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Get out when the market lets you out.
	--Paul Tudor Jones

	 

	There is a large reallocation trade coming to the surface, a rotation that will take the investment community out of bonds and back into stocks. The key ingredient to this equation is timing. Are we about to witness a final blow-off top to Treasuries, sending them below their post World War II record low? A final market meltdown? The things we fear are probably feared by others, and when we avoid them, we&#39;re doing what others are doing as well. This is why theres a scarcity of whatever work ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Get out when the market lets you out.
	--Paul Tudor Jones

	 

	There is a large reallocation trade coming to the surface, a rotation that will take the investment community out of bonds and back into stocks. The key ingredient to this equation is timing. Are we about to witness a final blow-off top to Treasuries, sending them below their post World War II record low? A final market meltdown? The things we fear are probably feared by others, and when we avoid them, we&#39;re doing what others are doing as well. This is why theres a scarcity of whatever work ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Tuesday's Super Slump: Has the GOP Lost Its Mojo?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/super-tuesday-economy-romney-economy-republicans/3/7/2012/id/39784</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 7 Mar 2012 12:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/super-tuesday-economy-romney-economy-republicans/3/7/2012/id/39784</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[The key takeaway from last night&#39;s "Super Tuesday" is that Republicans discovered what could be Mitt Romney&#39;s largest obstacle: his ability to communicate and connect with everyday Americans who lack higher education. The unemployment rate for those without higher education is elevated at 16%. Romney&#39;s ability to convince this group that he&#39;s focused on improving low-income-earning jobs will likely either make or break his campaign. Last fall Barry Ritholz commented on the art of logos, or placing rhetoric to logic, saying:


	Persuasion is clearly a sort of demonstration, since we are most fully persuaded when we consider a thing to ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[The key takeaway from last night&#39;s "Super Tuesday" is that Republicans discovered what could be Mitt Romney&#39;s largest obstacle: his ability to communicate and connect with everyday Americans who lack higher education. The unemployment rate for those without higher education is elevated at 16%. Romney&#39;s ability to convince this group that he&#39;s focused on improving low-income-earning jobs will likely either make or break his campaign. Last fall Barry Ritholz commented on the art of logos, or placing rhetoric to logic, saying:


	Persuasion is clearly a sort of demonstration, since we are most fully persuaded when we consider a thing to ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Arab Uprising and Oil: What to Expect as Crude Approaches Its Seasonal Uptrend]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/crude-oil-crude-oil-price-oil/2/21/2012/id/39507</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 21 Feb 2012 14:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/crude-oil-crude-oil-price-oil/2/21/2012/id/39507</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Leading up to the events of this weekend, it&#39;s been all battle drums and posturing among the world&#39;s major oil producers and consumers. Over the past few days, West Texas crude has held a fear premium and traded comfortably around the important psychological level of $100, but investors are no longer looking at the oil market with one eye open. Iran has officially shut off shipments of crude to the UK and France in response to sanctions or threat of them. The tension in Syria is gaining attention, but the United States doesn&#39;t know if it wants Syrian President Assad ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Leading up to the events of this weekend, it&#39;s been all battle drums and posturing among the world&#39;s major oil producers and consumers. Over the past few days, West Texas crude has held a fear premium and traded comfortably around the important psychological level of $100, but investors are no longer looking at the oil market with one eye open. Iran has officially shut off shipments of crude to the UK and France in response to sanctions or threat of them. The tension in Syria is gaining attention, but the United States doesn&#39;t know if it wants Syrian President Assad ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Halfway Home for Stock Market Rally]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/investor-sentiment-bear-market-bull-market/2/7/2012/id/39263</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 7 Feb 2012 11:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/investor-sentiment-bear-market-bull-market/2/7/2012/id/39263</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything.
-- Teddy Roosevelt

Throw the flag! An off-sides institutional investment community, coupled with confusion and contagion at the top of the brow has allowed hope to guide us higher, although we are destined for a date with further deterioration in the distant future. The purpose of this process is not to side with the psychology of a bull or a bear. It is an objective process conditioned by gauging the facts to determine the best probability of an outcome. 

We are halfway home with my ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything.
-- Teddy Roosevelt

Throw the flag! An off-sides institutional investment community, coupled with confusion and contagion at the top of the brow has allowed hope to guide us higher, although we are destined for a date with further deterioration in the distant future. The purpose of this process is not to side with the psychology of a bull or a bear. It is an objective process conditioned by gauging the facts to determine the best probability of an outcome. 

We are halfway home with my ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[The Latest Stock Market Recovery Is Destined to Disappoint]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/real-estate-market-housing-bubble-market/11/3/2011/id/37740</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 3 Nov 2011 10:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/real-estate-market-housing-bubble-market/11/3/2011/id/37740</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[It is plausible that we have witnessed the final corrective countertrend rally that ended last week with the S&P 500 nearing 1,295. However, the 21-Day Put/Call Ratio is indicating a level generally associated with bottoms rather than market tops. With that stated, I am shifting my near-term target for the S&P 500 from 1,280, provided on the morning of October 4, to 1,328.

The S&P Put/Call Ratio, in spite of the rally off of the October 4 bottom, is demonstrating an elevated level of bearishness and fear in the market, although bears can point to the percentage of stocks trading ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[It is plausible that we have witnessed the final corrective countertrend rally that ended last week with the S&P 500 nearing 1,295. However, the 21-Day Put/Call Ratio is indicating a level generally associated with bottoms rather than market tops. With that stated, I am shifting my near-term target for the S&P 500 from 1,280, provided on the morning of October 4, to 1,328.

The S&P Put/Call Ratio, in spite of the rally off of the October 4 bottom, is demonstrating an elevated level of bearishness and fear in the market, although bears can point to the percentage of stocks trading ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[As Greece Goes, So Go the Euro and US Equities]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/greece-debt-greece-bailout-greece-default/9/12/2011/id/36823</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 12 Sep 2011 09:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/greece-debt-greece-bailout-greece-default/9/12/2011/id/36823</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[As news intensifies in Europe, markets are pricing in a likely default by Greece on its debt. The shock waves from counterparty exposure of such an announcement will dictate how far global equity markets will fall and the speed of the decent. On June 12, I re-offered an itemized list of scenarios entitled "Lehman in Drag" that I came across and the trickle effect that may potentially unfold. As disturbing as they may be, what Europe is dealing with is a larger sovereign debt-fueled disease we witnessed in our banking sector in 2008.1. Every bank in Greece will instantly become ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[As news intensifies in Europe, markets are pricing in a likely default by Greece on its debt. The shock waves from counterparty exposure of such an announcement will dictate how far global equity markets will fall and the speed of the decent. On June 12, I re-offered an itemized list of scenarios entitled "Lehman in Drag" that I came across and the trickle effect that may potentially unfold. As disturbing as they may be, what Europe is dealing with is a larger sovereign debt-fueled disease we witnessed in our banking sector in 2008.1. Every bank in Greece will instantly become ]]>
</content:encoded>
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<title><![CDATA[Buffett Buying Banks, but Don't Expect a Bottom Yet]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/warren-buffett-buffett-bank-of-america/9/6/2011/id/36718</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 6 Sep 2011 09:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/warren-buffett-buffett-bank-of-america/9/6/2011/id/36718</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA["The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country." - Abraham Lincoln, address to Congress, 1862I found this quote to be fitting, as the recent downgrade of the US credit rating certainly presents a challenge to our global stature. The question de jure is: Will the current environment and aftershocks circulating around the downgrade be a capitulatory event to ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA["The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country." - Abraham Lincoln, address to Congress, 1862I found this quote to be fitting, as the recent downgrade of the US credit rating certainly presents a challenge to our global stature. The question de jure is: Will the current environment and aftershocks circulating around the downgrade be a capitulatory event to ]]>
</content:encoded>
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<title><![CDATA[An Early Obituary for the Stock Market]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-stocks-us-debt-us/8/8/2011/id/36199</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 8 Aug 2011 08:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-stocks-us-debt-us/8/8/2011/id/36199</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[It is with great regret and sadness that we announce the passing of the US stock market today. After suffering a horrific credit crash in 2008, the monetary life support initiated by the federal government was unable to properly restore the health of the patient. The market battled its way back from near death and fought diligently for 30 months, only to succumb to injuries that were addressable, but overlooked by the government medical staff. What we needed were responsible figures overseeing the patient and insuring a sustainable recovery. What we received were drugs that masked the internal injuries and ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[It is with great regret and sadness that we announce the passing of the US stock market today. After suffering a horrific credit crash in 2008, the monetary life support initiated by the federal government was unable to properly restore the health of the patient. The market battled its way back from near death and fought diligently for 30 months, only to succumb to injuries that were addressable, but overlooked by the government medical staff. What we needed were responsible figures overseeing the patient and insuring a sustainable recovery. What we received were drugs that masked the internal injuries and ]]>
</content:encoded>
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<title><![CDATA[US Equities Forecast and the Anticipated Path of the Market]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/equity-market-us-equities-us-credit/7/25/2011/id/35935</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 25 Jul 2011 14:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/equity-market-us-equities-us-credit/7/25/2011/id/35935</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In early May my thesis on the market was setting up for a significant market crash, based upon an unsustainable bid occurring in equities. The damage manifesting under the hood was indicative of such a crash comparable to 1987; one that would result in testing the March 2009 lows. Since that time, the market has undergone a consolidation process through time rather than a function of lower prices. I see two distinct developments that will shape our direction over the short, intermediate and long term. US Equity Market Forecasts and Key AssumptionsThe market continues to pull back on global macro ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In early May my thesis on the market was setting up for a significant market crash, based upon an unsustainable bid occurring in equities. The damage manifesting under the hood was indicative of such a crash comparable to 1987; one that would result in testing the March 2009 lows. Since that time, the market has undergone a consolidation process through time rather than a function of lower prices. I see two distinct developments that will shape our direction over the short, intermediate and long term. US Equity Market Forecasts and Key AssumptionsThe market continues to pull back on global macro ]]>
</content:encoded>
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<title><![CDATA[Monetary Stimulus, Lack of Will Could Doom US Economy]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/greatest-generation-us-economy-us-gdp/7/18/2011/id/35794</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 18 Jul 2011 10:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/greatest-generation-us-economy-us-gdp/7/18/2011/id/35794</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA["The nation was balanced precariously between the darkness of the Great Depression on one side and the storms of war in Europe and the Pacific on the other. It was a critical time in the shaping of this nation and the world, equal to the revolution of 1776 and the perils of the Civil War. Once again the American people understood the magnitude of the challenge, the importance of an unparalleled national commitment, and, most of all, the certainty that only one resolution was acceptable. The nation turned to its young to carry the heaviest burden, to fight in enemy ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA["The nation was balanced precariously between the darkness of the Great Depression on one side and the storms of war in Europe and the Pacific on the other. It was a critical time in the shaping of this nation and the world, equal to the revolution of 1776 and the perils of the Civil War. Once again the American people understood the magnitude of the challenge, the importance of an unparalleled national commitment, and, most of all, the certainty that only one resolution was acceptable. The nation turned to its young to carry the heaviest burden, to fight in enemy ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Credit of a Different Breed: Credibility]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/credit-debt-credibility-former-fed-chairman/7/14/2011/id/35720</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:20:00EST
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			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/credit-debt-credibility-former-fed-chairman/7/14/2011/id/35720</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA["They say that if you're playing poker and don't know who the sucker is, chances are it's you. For those currently holding trading cards, the stakes have never been higher. Over the last few weeks, as risk chips stacked around the table, investors have been forced to call the bluff of some of the savviest players in the global game."--Todd Harrison, The Credit Card (2007)

We lived through a decade in a cave man's world; surrounded by shadows that were thought to be truth but instead were filled with false realities. Our fate going forward will be predicated and hopefully ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA["They say that if you're playing poker and don't know who the sucker is, chances are it's you. For those currently holding trading cards, the stakes have never been higher. Over the last few weeks, as risk chips stacked around the table, investors have been forced to call the bluff of some of the savviest players in the global game."--Todd Harrison, The Credit Card (2007)

We lived through a decade in a cave man's world; surrounded by shadows that were thought to be truth but instead were filled with false realities. Our fate going forward will be predicated and hopefully ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Why Geithner Should Remain as Treasury Secretary]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/timothy-geithner-treasury-secretary-financial-crisis/7/12/2011/id/35683</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 12 Jul 2011 11:15:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/timothy-geithner-treasury-secretary-financial-crisis/7/12/2011/id/35683</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In March of 2009 I opined that we were being tested. Not only our capital accounts but our integrity, character, and resolve. Social acrimony was no longer a word in Wikipedia; it became a constant in our coffee shops. We stood and held our ground and it has been a slingshot for stocks ever since. The news of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner potentially departing his post is disheartening and potentially demoralizing at home and abroad. He came into a war armed with a pistol and made it out in one piece. We have seen Larry Summers depart, we have seen ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In March of 2009 I opined that we were being tested. Not only our capital accounts but our integrity, character, and resolve. Social acrimony was no longer a word in Wikipedia; it became a constant in our coffee shops. We stood and held our ground and it has been a slingshot for stocks ever since. The news of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner potentially departing his post is disheartening and potentially demoralizing at home and abroad. He came into a war armed with a pistol and made it out in one piece. We have seen Larry Summers depart, we have seen ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Is Recession in the Rearview Mirror or the Passenger Seat?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/recession-credit-card-balance-sheet-china/7/11/2011/id/35659</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 11 Jul 2011 12:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/recession-credit-card-balance-sheet-china/7/11/2011/id/35659</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Over the weekend China's annual inflation accelerated to a three-year high in June. Overall food prices increased by 15%. Non-food prices climbed 3%, the largest gain on record. Pork prices alone soared more than 57%, while egg prices jumped a steep 23% on the back of a seasonal squeeze in supply.We came into Friday morning (July 8) with futures pointing higher. My wager was for a gap up, a surprise non-farm print and a sell-off. This prediction certainly came to fruition. The reality of being wrong doesn't come equivocal to the 18,000 payroll number that was revealed. Corporations have said ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Over the weekend China's annual inflation accelerated to a three-year high in June. Overall food prices increased by 15%. Non-food prices climbed 3%, the largest gain on record. Pork prices alone soared more than 57%, while egg prices jumped a steep 23% on the back of a seasonal squeeze in supply.We came into Friday morning (July 8) with futures pointing higher. My wager was for a gap up, a surprise non-farm print and a sell-off. This prediction certainly came to fruition. The reality of being wrong doesn't come equivocal to the 18,000 payroll number that was revealed. Corporations have said ]]>
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