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<title>Minyanville - James Debevec RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
</description>
<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
</copyright>
		<item>
<title><![CDATA[5 Dramatically Oversold Gold Stock Indicators]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/5-Dramatically-Oversold-Gold-Stock-Indicators/5/8/2013/id/49713</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 8 May 2013 15:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities/articles/5-Dramatically-Oversold-Gold-Stock-Indicators/5/8/2013/id/49713</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Last month a plethora of gold stock indicators reached extraordinary levels. Let's take a look at five of them.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index

Stockcharts.com has data of the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index. Its data for this indicator starts on February 14, 2008. The all-time low of the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is 0. It closed at that level on December 3-5, 2008 and April 12-19, 2013. From December 3-5, 2008 gold stocks went up 119% to 126% in less than a year.

Gold Stocks Underperform Oil Stocks By Over 50% in 131 Trading Days

The data ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Last month a plethora of gold stock indicators reached extraordinary levels. Let's take a look at five of them.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index

Stockcharts.com has data of the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index. Its data for this indicator starts on February 14, 2008. The all-time low of the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is 0. It closed at that level on December 3-5, 2008 and April 12-19, 2013. From December 3-5, 2008 gold stocks went up 119% to 126% in less than a year.

Gold Stocks Underperform Oil Stocks By Over 50% in 131 Trading Days

The data ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Extreme Indicator Alert: A Multi-Month Gold Stock Rally Appears Likely]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Extreme-Indicator-Alert253A-a-Multi-Month/4/8/2013/id/49132</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 8 Apr 2013 11:05:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Extreme-Indicator-Alert253A-a-Multi-Month/4/8/2013/id/49132</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[On February 20, the RSI (21) for the PHLXGold/SilverSector (INDEXNASDAQ:XAU) closed at 26.14. This reading was the lowest since August 31, 1998. Overall it was the 17th lowest reading out of 7,365 trading days since the ^XAU's December 1983 inception. That places it in the 0.22% percentile. This article will examine what has happened after low XAU RSI readings.
 
On the morning of August 9, 2011 I released an article entitled Low RSI of Wilshire 5000 Says It&#39;s Time to Buy, Then Sell. The basic premise of the article was that when stocks traded at am uber-low RSI, they typically ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[On February 20, the RSI (21) for the PHLXGold/SilverSector (INDEXNASDAQ:XAU) closed at 26.14. This reading was the lowest since August 31, 1998. Overall it was the 17th lowest reading out of 7,365 trading days since the ^XAU's December 1983 inception. That places it in the 0.22% percentile. This article will examine what has happened after low XAU RSI readings.
 
On the morning of August 9, 2011 I released an article entitled Low RSI of Wilshire 5000 Says It&#39;s Time to Buy, Then Sell. The basic premise of the article was that when stocks traded at am uber-low RSI, they typically ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Precious Metal Stocks Most Oversold Relative to the S&P 500 in History]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Precious-Metal-Stocks-Most-Oversold-Relative/3/1/2013/id/48471</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 1 Mar 2013 10:30:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Precious-Metal-Stocks-Most-Oversold-Relative/3/1/2013/id/48471</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[On February 20, precious metal stocks were the most oversold relative to the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) in history.
 
The oldest daily precious metals index is the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (INDEXNASDAQ:XAU). Its data goes back to December 19, 1983. The indicator that was the most oversold in history is the XAU:SPX RSI (21).
 
The XAU:SPX is the ratio between precious metal stocks and the S&P 500.
 
The RSI(21) is the Relative Strength Index. This is a quantitative indicator which measures how overbought/oversold an asset is over the last 21 trading days (i.e. one month). Normally this indicator is used with a ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[On February 20, precious metal stocks were the most oversold relative to the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) in history.
 
The oldest daily precious metals index is the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (INDEXNASDAQ:XAU). Its data goes back to December 19, 1983. The indicator that was the most oversold in history is the XAU:SPX RSI (21).
 
The XAU:SPX is the ratio between precious metal stocks and the S&P 500.
 
The RSI(21) is the Relative Strength Index. This is a quantitative indicator which measures how overbought/oversold an asset is over the last 21 trading days (i.e. one month). Normally this indicator is used with a ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Happens After Stocks Were Up Big in January?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/What-happens-after-stocks-were-up/2/1/2013/id/47823</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 1 Feb 2013 11:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/What-happens-after-stocks-were-up/2/1/2013/id/47823</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[The stock market was up big in January. A few researchers didn't even wait until the end of last month to note that when the market goes up a lot in January, it usually does well for the rest of the year. While there is a lot of truth to this, there are a few interesting aspects of the "Big January" indicator that you probably have not read elsewhere. Let's take a look.
 
Last month was the 27th best performing January dating back to 1800 (when the data starts). If you look at how the market does after a big ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[The stock market was up big in January. A few researchers didn't even wait until the end of last month to note that when the market goes up a lot in January, it usually does well for the rest of the year. While there is a lot of truth to this, there are a few interesting aspects of the "Big January" indicator that you probably have not read elsewhere. Let's take a look.
 
Last month was the 27th best performing January dating back to 1800 (when the data starts). If you look at how the market does after a big ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[When Interest Rates Rise, Which Assets Go Up and Which Go Down?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/When-Interest-Rates-Rise-Which-Assets/1/24/2013/id/47596</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 24 Jan 2013 10:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/When-Interest-Rates-Rise-Which-Assets/1/24/2013/id/47596</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In 2012, I wrote a number of articles that laid out the hypothesis that interest rates were headed considerably higher. On July 25, 2012, US Treasury interest rates hit all-time lows. Since then, interest rates have been marching upwards. This article will examine a variety of assets during periods of rising interest rates to see which assets go up and which assets go down.
 
Bond yields put in a major peak in 1814. From 1814 to 1946, bond yields dropped in a 132-year super secular bond bull market. Within the context of this super secular bull, there were a number ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In 2012, I wrote a number of articles that laid out the hypothesis that interest rates were headed considerably higher. On July 25, 2012, US Treasury interest rates hit all-time lows. Since then, interest rates have been marching upwards. This article will examine a variety of assets during periods of rising interest rates to see which assets go up and which assets go down.
 
Bond yields put in a major peak in 1814. From 1814 to 1946, bond yields dropped in a 132-year super secular bond bull market. Within the context of this super secular bull, there were a number ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[When Will Expected Inflation Hit 2.5%?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/When-Will-Expected-Inflation-Hit-252525253F/12/13/2012/id/46664</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 13 Dec 2012 15:52:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/When-Will-Expected-Inflation-Hit-252525253F/12/13/2012/id/46664</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Just when most people were getting used to the idea of QE3, yesterday the Fed announced QE4. When will the madness stop?  In the Fed's latest announcement it mentioned the "projected" inflation rate.  This article will take a look at the TIPS expected inflation indicator to determine how long the Fed can remain accommodative under the new guidelines.

Let's start from the beginning. For those interested in long-term inflation data, a good source of material is How Much Is That in Real Money? by John J. McCusker.  Mr. McCusker goes all the way back to the Colonial times ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Just when most people were getting used to the idea of QE3, yesterday the Fed announced QE4. When will the madness stop?  In the Fed's latest announcement it mentioned the "projected" inflation rate.  This article will take a look at the TIPS expected inflation indicator to determine how long the Fed can remain accommodative under the new guidelines.

Let's start from the beginning. For those interested in long-term inflation data, a good source of material is How Much Is That in Real Money? by John J. McCusker.  Mr. McCusker goes all the way back to the Colonial times ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Is the Fair Value of the S&P? Over 20% Higher]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Fair-Value-of-the-S2526P-AAA/12/4/2012/id/46345</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 4 Dec 2012 14:26:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/Fair-Value-of-the-S2526P-AAA/12/4/2012/id/46345</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In my last article What Is the Fair Value of the S&P? Ask Baa Long-Term Corporate Bonds, I presented the case that the most appropriate discount rates to use in valuing stocks were corporate bond yields. My rationale for picking corporate bonds over Treasuries was that the government can print money and corporations can't. In that article, my firm examined Baa bonds and concluded that stocks were substantially undervalued. This article will now examine the relationship between AAA long-term corporate bonds and equities to calculate a fair value estimate for the S&P.

Courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In my last article What Is the Fair Value of the S&P? Ask Baa Long-Term Corporate Bonds, I presented the case that the most appropriate discount rates to use in valuing stocks were corporate bond yields. My rationale for picking corporate bonds over Treasuries was that the government can print money and corporations can't. In that article, my firm examined Baa bonds and concluded that stocks were substantially undervalued. This article will now examine the relationship between AAA long-term corporate bonds and equities to calculate a fair value estimate for the S&P.

Courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Is the Fair Value of the S&P? Ask Baa Long-Term Corporate Bonds]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/What-Is-the-Fair-Value-of/11/19/2012/id/45969</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 19 Nov 2012 12:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/What-Is-the-Fair-Value-of/11/19/2012/id/45969</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since October 6, 2011 we have looked at a dozen indicators which suggested stocks will go considerably higher. But if someone follows the indicators, is he or she buying a piece of paper merely on the sole basis of technical analysis? What about the fundamentals? Let's see if we can figure out how much the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) is really worth.

What is the fair value of the stock market? This is one of the more basic questions in finance. Over the last century there have been a wide variety of attempts made to value stocks using all sorts ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since October 6, 2011 we have looked at a dozen indicators which suggested stocks will go considerably higher. But if someone follows the indicators, is he or she buying a piece of paper merely on the sole basis of technical analysis? What about the fundamentals? Let's see if we can figure out how much the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) is really worth.

What is the fair value of the stock market? This is one of the more basic questions in finance. Over the last century there have been a wide variety of attempts made to value stocks using all sorts ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Debunking the 'Fiscal Cliff' Myth]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/fiscal-cliff-gdp-spending-stock-returns/11/8/2012/id/45682</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 8 Nov 2012 11:43:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/fiscal-cliff-gdp-spending-stock-returns/11/8/2012/id/45682</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL For years people have been warning of the perils of the Federal debt. Now that it looks like the government may finally be addressing this important issue, many of these same people are now issuing dire warnings of an impending fiscal cliff. Let's take a look at the data to see what actually happens to stocks when taxes go up and spending goes down.

Raising Taxes

Maximum Tax Rate
 
The first half of the so-called fiscal cliff is raising taxes. When one runs a regression from 1800 to 2011 on the effect the maximum tax rate has on ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL For years people have been warning of the perils of the Federal debt. Now that it looks like the government may finally be addressing this important issue, many of these same people are now issuing dire warnings of an impending fiscal cliff. Let's take a look at the data to see what actually happens to stocks when taxes go up and spending goes down.

Raising Taxes

Maximum Tax Rate
 
The first half of the so-called fiscal cliff is raising taxes. When one runs a regression from 1800 to 2011 on the effect the maximum tax rate has on ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Is Bad for the United States Is Good for Stocks]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/presidential-election-us-debt-us-gdp/10/17/2012/id/45080</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:20:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/presidential-election-us-debt-us-gdp/10/17/2012/id/45080</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL It is less than three weeks until the elections. One of the biggest political talking points in recent years has been the debt of the United States. This article will examine the effect fiscal responsibility (or lack thereof) has on stock market returns.

Dividends were ignored in this study for the sake of simplicity.

We are interested in the change of debt, not the deficits. The difference is "off balance sheet" items (the most notable of which is Social Security). The debt is $16 trillion. Adding all the annual deficits and surpluses from 1789 onward equates to only ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL It is less than three weeks until the elections. One of the biggest political talking points in recent years has been the debt of the United States. This article will examine the effect fiscal responsibility (or lack thereof) has on stock market returns.

Dividends were ignored in this study for the sake of simplicity.

We are interested in the change of debt, not the deficits. The difference is "off balance sheet" items (the most notable of which is Social Security). The debt is $16 trillion. Adding all the annual deficits and surpluses from 1789 onward equates to only ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Assets Perform Best During Quantitative Easing?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/255EGSPC-255EIXIC-UUP-255ERUT-spy-s2526p500/9/26/2012/id/44329</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 26 Sep 2012 14:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/255EGSPC-255EIXIC-UUP-255ERUT-spy-s2526p500/9/26/2012/id/44329</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Fed has done it again. Over the last four years the government has embarked on a variety of different stimulus programs. The Fed's main programs have been Quantitative Easing (QE), Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Operation Twist. ZIRP isn't anything more than a glorified jawbone, so we won't spend any more time analyzing it. Some people have lumped the Operation Twists and QEs into one big bond-buying stimulus category. But this is a mistake as the effects of these two operations are quite different and should be analyzed separately.  This article will look at a variety ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Fed has done it again. Over the last four years the government has embarked on a variety of different stimulus programs. The Fed's main programs have been Quantitative Easing (QE), Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Operation Twist. ZIRP isn't anything more than a glorified jawbone, so we won't spend any more time analyzing it. Some people have lumped the Operation Twists and QEs into one big bond-buying stimulus category. But this is a mistake as the effects of these two operations are quite different and should be analyzed separately.  This article will look at a variety ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[TIPS Reaches an All-Time Record Low of -1.67%. What Are the Implications?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/tips-bonds-pimco-treasuries-tips-5/9/20/2012/id/44198</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 20 Sep 2012 14:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/tips-bonds-pimco-treasuries-tips-5/9/20/2012/id/44198</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On September 14, the five-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) closed at -1.67%. This is the all-time low for any TIPS security ever. The majority of investors would have exposure to TIPS through something like the PIMCO TIPS Index Fund (NYSEARCA:STPZ) or the iShares Barclays TIPS Fund (NYSEARCA:TIP). 

Anytime any indicator or security hits an all-time extreme it means something highly unusual is going on. Let's take a closer look at the five-year TIPS to see if we can derive any implications from this extraordinary reading.

Let's take a look at the charts:







Since we can't really compare ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On September 14, the five-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) closed at -1.67%. This is the all-time low for any TIPS security ever. The majority of investors would have exposure to TIPS through something like the PIMCO TIPS Index Fund (NYSEARCA:STPZ) or the iShares Barclays TIPS Fund (NYSEARCA:TIP). 

Anytime any indicator or security hits an all-time extreme it means something highly unusual is going on. Let's take a closer look at the five-year TIPS to see if we can derive any implications from this extraordinary reading.

Let's take a look at the charts:







Since we can't really compare ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Assets Perform Best During Quantitative Easing?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/255EGSPC-255EIXIC-UUP-255ERUT-spy-s2526p500/9/14/2012/id/44020</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 14 Sep 2012 13:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/255EGSPC-255EIXIC-UUP-255ERUT-spy-s2526p500/9/14/2012/id/44020</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Fed has done it again. Over the last four years the government has embarked on a variety of different stimulus programs. The Fed's main programs have been Quantitative Easing (QE), Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Operation Twist. ZIRP isn't anything more than a glorified jawbone, so we won't spend any more time analyzing it. Some people have lumped the Operation Twists and QEs into one big bond-buying stimulus category. But this is a mistake as the effects of these two operations are quite different and should be analyzed separately.  This article will look at a variety ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL The Fed has done it again. Over the last four years the government has embarked on a variety of different stimulus programs. The Fed's main programs have been Quantitative Easing (QE), Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Operation Twist. ZIRP isn't anything more than a glorified jawbone, so we won't spend any more time analyzing it. Some people have lumped the Operation Twists and QEs into one big bond-buying stimulus category. But this is a mistake as the effects of these two operations are quite different and should be analyzed separately.  This article will look at a variety ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Indicator at Levels Only Seen Near the Epic 1932 and 2009 Stock Market Lows]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/s2526p-255EGSPC-baa-yield-10-year/8/17/2012/id/43294</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 17 Aug 2012 11:10:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/s2526p-255EGSPC-baa-yield-10-year/8/17/2012/id/43294</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since October 6, there have been quite a few indicators (such as the ARMS Index, the 30-year bond and its 52 week rate of change, the 10-year note, and bond yields) that have suggested stocks will go higher. Today we will look at yet another one. The indicator is the Long-Term Corporate Baa Yield/10-year US Treasury Note Yield ratio.
 
As always, we will go back as far back as the data will allow. The 30-year bond was reinstated in 1977. The monthly 10-year data starts on January 31, 1925. We will use the 10-year as the extra data ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since October 6, there have been quite a few indicators (such as the ARMS Index, the 30-year bond and its 52 week rate of change, the 10-year note, and bond yields) that have suggested stocks will go higher. Today we will look at yet another one. The indicator is the Long-Term Corporate Baa Yield/10-year US Treasury Note Yield ratio.
 
As always, we will go back as far back as the data will allow. The 30-year bond was reinstated in 1977. The monthly 10-year data starts on January 31, 1925. We will use the 10-year as the extra data ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Another Bond Indicator Suggests Stocks Will Hit All-Time Highs]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/bond-market-indicators-10-year-note/8/2/2012/id/42892</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 2 Aug 2012 09:20:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/bond-market-indicators-10-year-note/8/2/2012/id/42892</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL There is no shortage of bond indicators at extreme readings. The 10-year note and 30-year bond both hit all-time lows in yields last week. Negative two-year yields are almost becoming routine across the globe.  Not only are bonds ridiculously overpriced on a fundamental basis, but technical indicators are suggesting the rubber band is getting stretched as well. Today we will look at another bond indicator which has reached last week's level on only one other occasion.

Bonds have been in a 30.7-year bull market. The highest yield the 30-year bond ever reached was 15.21% on October 26, 1981. ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL There is no shortage of bond indicators at extreme readings. The 10-year note and 30-year bond both hit all-time lows in yields last week. Negative two-year yields are almost becoming routine across the globe.  Not only are bonds ridiculously overpriced on a fundamental basis, but technical indicators are suggesting the rubber band is getting stretched as well. Today we will look at another bond indicator which has reached last week's level on only one other occasion.

Bonds have been in a 30.7-year bull market. The highest yield the 30-year bond ever reached was 15.21% on October 26, 1981. ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Happens When Bond Yields Are Lower Than the Inflation Rate?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/inflation-disinflation-bonds-treasuries-bond-market/7/6/2012/id/42222</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 6 Jul 2012 11:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/inflation-disinflation-bonds-treasuries-bond-market/7/6/2012/id/42222</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Not long ago bond yields were lower than the inflation rate. There were a number of articles commenting on the phenomenon. A common piece of advice in many of these articles was to invest in commodities. The basic logic was that low interest rates would cause inflation and "real assets" would benefit. Let's take a look at what has actually happened when long term bonds offer negative real returns.

Since the inflation rate is a "monthly" data point, we will look at monthly data. The 30-year bond was reinstituted in February 1977 so the data starts there. Here ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Not long ago bond yields were lower than the inflation rate. There were a number of articles commenting on the phenomenon. A common piece of advice in many of these articles was to invest in commodities. The basic logic was that low interest rates would cause inflation and "real assets" would benefit. Let's take a look at what has actually happened when long term bonds offer negative real returns.

Since the inflation rate is a "monthly" data point, we will look at monthly data. The 30-year bond was reinstituted in February 1977 so the data starts there. Here ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Top 10 Extreme Bond Indicators]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/commodities-bonds-stocks-real-estate-bond/6/5/2012/id/41502</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 5 Jun 2012 11:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/commodities-bonds-stocks-real-estate-bond/6/5/2012/id/41502</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Last year I wrote 15 articles which were extremely bearish on commodities.  Due to commodities sky-high valuations, there was no shortage of source material to obtain inspiration. Over the last 13 months, the money has flowed out of commodities (now down 25%) and into bonds. This year the easy articles to write are about bonds. We are living in fascinating times with at least three of the four major asset classes (stocks, real estate, and now bonds) reaching all-time valuation highs over the last 13 years. Without further ado, here is a list of 10 bond indicators which ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Last year I wrote 15 articles which were extremely bearish on commodities.  Due to commodities sky-high valuations, there was no shortage of source material to obtain inspiration. Over the last 13 months, the money has flowed out of commodities (now down 25%) and into bonds. This year the easy articles to write are about bonds. We are living in fascinating times with at least three of the four major asset classes (stocks, real estate, and now bonds) reaching all-time valuation highs over the last 13 years. Without further ado, here is a list of 10 bond indicators which ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[10-Year Note Yield Hits All-Time Low]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/10-Year-Note-nasdaq-100-bonds/5/30/2012/id/41352</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 30 May 2012 11:25:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/10-Year-Note-nasdaq-100-bonds/5/30/2012/id/41352</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL This morning the 10-year US Treasury (^AXTEN) note yield hit an all-time low. Despite all-time lows in yields, investors can't seem to get enough bonds.  Investing in bonds now bears similarities to investing in stocks 12 years ago or real estate six years ago. 

From 1925 (when monthly data starts) to December 2010, the lowest monthly close for the 10-year bond was 1.98%. This occurred in July and October 1941.  Bonds then proceeded to go into a forty year bear market.  The 10-year bond yield will finish at the lowest monthly close in history (the current record is ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL This morning the 10-year US Treasury (^AXTEN) note yield hit an all-time low. Despite all-time lows in yields, investors can't seem to get enough bonds.  Investing in bonds now bears similarities to investing in stocks 12 years ago or real estate six years ago. 

From 1925 (when monthly data starts) to December 2010, the lowest monthly close for the 10-year bond was 1.98%. This occurred in July and October 1941.  Bonds then proceeded to go into a forty year bear market.  The 10-year bond yield will finish at the lowest monthly close in history (the current record is ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Cotton Indicator Hits All-Time Low and Strongly Suggests the Soft King Will Double]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities-and-options/articles/cotton-worst-asset-class-commodities-pattern/4/17/2012/id/40458</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 17 Apr 2012 11:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/commodities-and-options/articles/cotton-worst-asset-class-commodities-pattern/4/17/2012/id/40458</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In my first article on Minyanville, I wrote that commodities are The Worst Possible Asset Class to Invest in Right Now. The commodity leader at the time was cotton. Cotton peaked 17 calendar days later and then collapsed 61.6% over the next 9.5 months. Now there are a couple of indicators which suggest it may be time to reverse the bearish outlook in King Cotton. The indicator we will look at today is the 252 trading day (i.e.one year) rate of change in the price of cotton. The daily cotton data used for this article (from chartsrus.com) starts in 1967. ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In my first article on Minyanville, I wrote that commodities are The Worst Possible Asset Class to Invest in Right Now. The commodity leader at the time was cotton. Cotton peaked 17 calendar days later and then collapsed 61.6% over the next 9.5 months. Now there are a couple of indicators which suggest it may be time to reverse the bearish outlook in King Cotton. The indicator we will look at today is the 252 trading day (i.e.one year) rate of change in the price of cotton. The daily cotton data used for this article (from chartsrus.com) starts in 1967. ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Tracking the 10-Year Note: Indicator Hitting All-Time Low Says Stocks Will Hit All-Time High]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/10-Year-Note-stocks-30-year/4/10/2012/id/40342</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:20:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/10-Year-Note-stocks-30-year/4/10/2012/id/40342</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[On December 15, I wrote an article that noted that the 252 daily Rate of Change (or ROC) decline on the 30-year bond yield was at the 0.2% percentile (see Indicator at 0.2% Offers Clues to Direction of Bonds, Stocks and Commodities). The only times the ROC was lower stocks went up over 40% in less than 16.5 months. One potential problem of this indicator is the 30-year bond was re-instated only in 1977, and no new 30-year bonds were issued from February 14, 2002, to February 8, 2006. The 10-year note has a much longer track record. So this ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[On December 15, I wrote an article that noted that the 252 daily Rate of Change (or ROC) decline on the 30-year bond yield was at the 0.2% percentile (see Indicator at 0.2% Offers Clues to Direction of Bonds, Stocks and Commodities). The only times the ROC was lower stocks went up over 40% in less than 16.5 months. One potential problem of this indicator is the 30-year bond was re-instated only in 1977, and no new 30-year bonds were issued from February 14, 2002, to February 8, 2006. The 10-year note has a much longer track record. So this ]]>
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