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<title>Minyanville - Reid Holloway RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
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<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
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		<item>
<title><![CDATA[RIMM: Will Thursday's Earnings Prompt a Short Squeeze?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Quick-Note-on-Short-Squeeze-in/12/17/2012/id/46749</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 17 Dec 2012 14:38:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/Quick-Note-on-Short-Squeeze-in/12/17/2012/id/46749</guid>
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<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Five o'clock p.m. on Thursday, December 20, will be a big moment for Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM). The company&#39;s upcoming conference call is set to permit analysts to pick apart earnings reported then and management's commentary on that subject and future strategies. Additionally, the company plans to unveil a highly anticipated new product (or products) at the end of January.
 
I'm fairly inclined to agree largely with Forbes' Eric Savitz's take published December 14, in which Savitz highlights William Blair analyst Anil Doradla's warning that the BlackBerry smartphone maker could "deliver investors a pre-holiday lump of coal."
 
Having ]]>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Five o'clock p.m. on Thursday, December 20, will be a big moment for Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM). The company&#39;s upcoming conference call is set to permit analysts to pick apart earnings reported then and management's commentary on that subject and future strategies. Additionally, the company plans to unveil a highly anticipated new product (or products) at the end of January.
 
I'm fairly inclined to agree largely with Forbes' Eric Savitz's take published December 14, in which Savitz highlights William Blair analyst Anil Doradla's warning that the BlackBerry smartphone maker could "deliver investors a pre-holiday lump of coal."
 
Having ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[What Exactly Happened on May 10, 2012?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/us-economy-us-spending-habits-spending/8/27/2012/id/43531</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 27 Aug 2012 12:30:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/us-economy-us-spending-habits-spending/8/27/2012/id/43531</guid>
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<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Over the weekend, a story in the New York Post  ran that was so seemingly insignificant that I almost overlooked it.  The Post&#39;s Annie Karni bylines an item about two unidentified diners who visited "21," the famous West 52nd Street eatery, and ordered not one, but two bottles of Petrus 1982 at the princely sum of $8,320. Per bottle. Okay, I thought, another day at the office for a couple of investment bankers. Until I saw the graphic accompanying the piece, an image of the bill, bearing two prominent bold and black redacts (which I immediately surmised as ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Over the weekend, a story in the New York Post  ran that was so seemingly insignificant that I almost overlooked it.  The Post&#39;s Annie Karni bylines an item about two unidentified diners who visited "21," the famous West 52nd Street eatery, and ordered not one, but two bottles of Petrus 1982 at the princely sum of $8,320. Per bottle. Okay, I thought, another day at the office for a couple of investment bankers. Until I saw the graphic accompanying the piece, an image of the bill, bearing two prominent bold and black redacts (which I immediately surmised as ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Obama Won, Romney Lost: How That Would Play Out in Major Market Sectors]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/centralized-power-Weakness-in-the-Euro/7/24/2012/id/42677</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 24 Jul 2012 10:10:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/centralized-power-Weakness-in-the-Euro/7/24/2012/id/42677</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Because of my most recent piece summarizing my forecast for the electoral college outcome indicating a lopsided Obama victory, Minyanville editors asked me to think about investing ideas assuming Mitt Romney will be defeated in the fall.
 
Since then, the Supreme Court ruled to uphold the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act's health insurance mandate.  In Chief Justice Roberts' controversial opinion representing the court's 5-4 majority, that mandate was viewed as a tax and therefore within the proper prerogatives of legislative power, simultaneously adding that had it actually been the mandate the law calls it, it would have ]]>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Because of my most recent piece summarizing my forecast for the electoral college outcome indicating a lopsided Obama victory, Minyanville editors asked me to think about investing ideas assuming Mitt Romney will be defeated in the fall.
 
Since then, the Supreme Court ruled to uphold the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act's health insurance mandate.  In Chief Justice Roberts' controversial opinion representing the court's 5-4 majority, that mandate was viewed as a tax and therefore within the proper prerogatives of legislative power, simultaneously adding that had it actually been the mandate the law calls it, it would have ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Demographics Is Destiny]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/electoral-college-election-2012-obama-romney/5/22/2012/id/41155</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 22 May 2012 10:35:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/electoral-college-election-2012-obama-romney/5/22/2012/id/41155</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[EDITOR'S NOTE: Using quantitative and other techniques, Reid Holloway published studies in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 forecasting the outcome of the Electoral College. His model accurately forecasted not only the Electoral College outcome but also the popular vote totals for each of the candidates in all 50 states and Washington, DC, within one half of one percentage point of the actual shares. He called 47 states and the District correctly in 2004 and 2008.
 
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Before diving into the data - and please note we're using date from May 21 - it's important to note that what I ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[EDITOR'S NOTE: Using quantitative and other techniques, Reid Holloway published studies in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 forecasting the outcome of the Electoral College. His model accurately forecasted not only the Electoral College outcome but also the popular vote totals for each of the candidates in all 50 states and Washington, DC, within one half of one percentage point of the actual shares. He called 47 states and the District correctly in 2004 and 2008.
 
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Before diving into the data - and please note we're using date from May 21 - it's important to note that what I ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Look at the Facts When Expecting Market Crashes]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/market-history-stock-crash-investment-strategy/2/28/2011/id/33048</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:45:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/market-history-stock-crash-investment-strategy/2/28/2011/id/33048</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Let's talk about crashes. Or, rather, let's talk about talking about crashes. Over the past week a piece by Paul B. Farrell published by MarketWatch is getting a good deal of circulation, mostly via email among concerned market participants. Titled "Market Crash 2011: It Will Hit by Christmas," Farrell's timing couldn't be better. Mr. Market's been going straight up since early fall 2010 and parabolically so since the New Year. At points along the way YTD the market's climb has sustained a compound annualized pace exceeding 45%. It's human nature for people to chew their nails up to the elbows ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Let's talk about crashes. Or, rather, let's talk about talking about crashes. Over the past week a piece by Paul B. Farrell published by MarketWatch is getting a good deal of circulation, mostly via email among concerned market participants. Titled "Market Crash 2011: It Will Hit by Christmas," Farrell's timing couldn't be better. Mr. Market's been going straight up since early fall 2010 and parabolically so since the New Year. At points along the way YTD the market's climb has sustained a compound annualized pace exceeding 45%. It's human nature for people to chew their nails up to the elbows ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[The Stock Market Isn't for Suckers and the Markets Aren't Really Broken]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-boom-and-bust-stock/2/1/2011/id/32546</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 1 Feb 2011 12:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-boom-and-bust-stock/2/1/2011/id/32546</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[I recently had the chance to read the article by Jason Kirby called "The Stock Market Is for Suckers" from Macleans.ca. Overall, an article like this would be considered bullish by contrarian-oriented technical analysts. It raises skepticism. The history of up-up-and-away phases in market cycles past is littered with intellectual outbursts of this variety.{FLIKE}Many of the macro facts Kirby raises regarding market and economic history are well worth consideration. In this piece, however, they are used mainly to support the "markets are broken" thesis which, in my opinion, is interpreted in a "backward integrated" way to support a conclusion probably ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[I recently had the chance to read the article by Jason Kirby called "The Stock Market Is for Suckers" from Macleans.ca. Overall, an article like this would be considered bullish by contrarian-oriented technical analysts. It raises skepticism. The history of up-up-and-away phases in market cycles past is littered with intellectual outbursts of this variety.{FLIKE}Many of the macro facts Kirby raises regarding market and economic history are well worth consideration. In this piece, however, they are used mainly to support the "markets are broken" thesis which, in my opinion, is interpreted in a "backward integrated" way to support a conclusion probably ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[A Word of Warning About Commodities]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/economy-commodities-titanium-fundamentals-markets-shares/1/14/2011/id/32192</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/economy-commodities-titanium-fundamentals-markets-shares/1/14/2011/id/32192</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[I love movies. They're American. Hollywood may be the most important influence this country has ever had and ever will have. I'm no left-winger, and I get just as irritated as anybody else when some actor shoots off his mouth about "climate change," but the signature on what comes out of the Left Coast on celluloid is as red, white and blue as Sam Adams or Betsy Ross. Nobody else does it like the USA.Having thus vented my spleen, I've never understood why Gordon Gekko's "greed is good" speech takes top bill over "Larry the Liquidator's" impassioned exhortation to stockholders ]]>
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	<![CDATA[I love movies. They're American. Hollywood may be the most important influence this country has ever had and ever will have. I'm no left-winger, and I get just as irritated as anybody else when some actor shoots off his mouth about "climate change," but the signature on what comes out of the Left Coast on celluloid is as red, white and blue as Sam Adams or Betsy Ross. Nobody else does it like the USA.Having thus vented my spleen, I've never understood why Gordon Gekko's "greed is good" speech takes top bill over "Larry the Liquidator's" impassioned exhortation to stockholders ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[What Is General Electric? Part 2]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/general-electric-stock-ge-stock-ge/11/19/2010/id/31219</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 19 Nov 2010 08:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/general-electric-stock-ge-stock-ge/11/19/2010/id/31219</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Editor's Note: This is Part 2 of a two-part series. Click here to read Part 1.When Focus Was KingOne hundred thirty years ago, General Electric's (GE) vision was considerably clearer; not only did GE know who it was, but so did their stockholders, and the world. I may be skipping some meaningful and important details, but the gist of it was Thomas Edison had invented the light bulb and built an impressive array of businesses and consolidated their structure, while merging with some others. GE was in the lighting business. Practically nobody's impression of GE was ambiguous then, inside or ]]>
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	<![CDATA[Editor's Note: This is Part 2 of a two-part series. Click here to read Part 1.When Focus Was KingOne hundred thirty years ago, General Electric's (GE) vision was considerably clearer; not only did GE know who it was, but so did their stockholders, and the world. I may be skipping some meaningful and important details, but the gist of it was Thomas Edison had invented the light bulb and built an impressive array of businesses and consolidated their structure, while merging with some others. GE was in the lighting business. Practically nobody's impression of GE was ambiguous then, inside or ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[What Is General Electric? Part 1]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/general-electric-stock-ge-stock-apple/11/18/2010/id/31209</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 18 Nov 2010 14:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/general-electric-stock-ge-stock-apple/11/18/2010/id/31209</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Editor's Note: This is Part 1 of a two-part series. Click here for Part 2.Sometimes philosophies that seem perfectly agreeable on their own don't seem so agreeable in the company of one another.Consider, "I'm a devout worshiper at the Church of Whatever Works." Sounds good. Why should you care whether the stock (or anything else) you own that doubles earns its dough selling coal, selling burgers, or selling smartphones -- it's still a stock that doubles, and that's the priority, right? Why shouldn't that be a valid approach to everything?Now consider, "You can't know what you're good for if you ]]>
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	<![CDATA[Editor's Note: This is Part 1 of a two-part series. Click here for Part 2.Sometimes philosophies that seem perfectly agreeable on their own don't seem so agreeable in the company of one another.Consider, "I'm a devout worshiper at the Church of Whatever Works." Sounds good. Why should you care whether the stock (or anything else) you own that doubles earns its dough selling coal, selling burgers, or selling smartphones -- it's still a stock that doubles, and that's the priority, right? Why shouldn't that be a valid approach to everything?Now consider, "You can't know what you're good for if you ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Internal Rate of Return and the Cultural Divide of Cash Flows]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/internal-rate-of-return-cultural-divide/6/25/2010/id/28921</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 25 Jun 2010 11:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/internal-rate-of-return-cultural-divide/6/25/2010/id/28921</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Editor's Note: To read more of Reid's content, visit the RLH Volatility Model.When somebody asks me, "Hey, Reid, is 'X' a good investment?" I have but one invariable reply: "Compared to what?" Not because I'm a smart-ass (which I am), but because that's the only answer there can ever be. That's just the way life is. There are no absolute answers in finance, only relative ones. If you like spreadsheets (I love them), the wide variety of financial calculations built into Excel for conducting "compared to what?" analyses is way beyond adequate for slicing and dicing the questions and comparisons ]]>
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	<![CDATA[Editor's Note: To read more of Reid's content, visit the RLH Volatility Model.When somebody asks me, "Hey, Reid, is 'X' a good investment?" I have but one invariable reply: "Compared to what?" Not because I'm a smart-ass (which I am), but because that's the only answer there can ever be. That's just the way life is. There are no absolute answers in finance, only relative ones. If you like spreadsheets (I love them), the wide variety of financial calculations built into Excel for conducting "compared to what?" analyses is way beyond adequate for slicing and dicing the questions and comparisons ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Recessions Getting Longer and Worse]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/recession-depression-markets-economy-unemployment-stock/4/28/2010/id/28016</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 28 Apr 2010 10:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/recession-depression-markets-economy-unemployment-stock/4/28/2010/id/28016</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[One thing I'm genuinely grateful for throughout my business career is the immense education various mentors have afforded, in both pedantic contexts (e.g., "2 + 2 = 4, Reid, duh!"), as well as just doing their jobs and setting exceptionally instructive -- and memorable -- examples. One of those mentors (and yes, I'm hoping he'll recognize this reference if he happens to read this piece) is what I call a "ballparker" and "triangulator." "Get your orders of magnitude in your head first, Reid," he would admonish, "and that way, if you determine the answer should be somewhere in the tens ]]>
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	<![CDATA[One thing I'm genuinely grateful for throughout my business career is the immense education various mentors have afforded, in both pedantic contexts (e.g., "2 + 2 = 4, Reid, duh!"), as well as just doing their jobs and setting exceptionally instructive -- and memorable -- examples. One of those mentors (and yes, I'm hoping he'll recognize this reference if he happens to read this piece) is what I call a "ballparker" and "triangulator." "Get your orders of magnitude in your head first, Reid," he would admonish, "and that way, if you determine the answer should be somewhere in the tens ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[The Case Against Apple]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/apple-fundamentals-technicals-cash-dollar-volume/4/13/2010/id/27758</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 13 Apr 2010 10:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/apple-fundamentals-technicals-cash-dollar-volume/4/13/2010/id/27758</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Editor's Note: To read more of Reid's content, visit the RLH Volatility Model.The last thing I'd ever want to do is give Steve Jobs a hard time. Heck, the guy's had a liver transplant. He's also worth tens of billions of dollars and could crush me like a bug.Apple (AAPL) is a gigantically important company whose magnitude cannot be overstated. It represents, in terms of its placement in the American economy, what the United States used to have in practically everything, and what the United States still has in certain things: overarching dominance (in Apple's case, being first and best ]]>
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	<![CDATA[Editor's Note: To read more of Reid's content, visit the RLH Volatility Model.The last thing I'd ever want to do is give Steve Jobs a hard time. Heck, the guy's had a liver transplant. He's also worth tens of billions of dollars and could crush me like a bug.Apple (AAPL) is a gigantically important company whose magnitude cannot be overstated. It represents, in terms of its placement in the American economy, what the United States used to have in practically everything, and what the United States still has in certain things: overarching dominance (in Apple's case, being first and best ]]>
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