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<title>Minyanville - Peter Atwater RSS</title>
<description>
The Trusted Choice for the Wall Street Voice
</description>
<link>
		http://www.minyanville.com</link>
<copyright>
		2013Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved
</copyright>
		<item>
<title><![CDATA[Cash: The Most Underinvested Asset Class Ever]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Cash253A-The-Most-Underinvested-Asset-Class/6/12/2013/id/50311</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 12 Jun 2013 12:33:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/Cash253A-The-Most-Underinvested-Asset-Class/6/12/2013/id/50311</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Recently I saw a statistic that grabbed my attention. According to Ned Davis Research, money market assets (plus cash held by stock and bond mutual funds/ETFs) were just 20% of total fund/ETF assets. That compares to 22.3% at the stock market peak in 2007 and 24.8% at the peak in 2000.

Even more interesting to me was the statistic that money market assets represented more than 80% of total fund assets in 1982, and over the past 30 years, money market assets have averaged more than 38%.

Not only do the current record low cash holdings fly in the face ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Recently I saw a statistic that grabbed my attention. According to Ned Davis Research, money market assets (plus cash held by stock and bond mutual funds/ETFs) were just 20% of total fund/ETF assets. That compares to 22.3% at the stock market peak in 2007 and 24.8% at the peak in 2000.

Even more interesting to me was the statistic that money market assets represented more than 80% of total fund assets in 1982, and over the past 30 years, money market assets have averaged more than 38%.

Not only do the current record low cash holdings fly in the face ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What If Abenomics Is to Policy-Making What Subprime Lending Was to Housing?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/Abenomics-Is-to-Policy-Making-What/5/29/2013/id/50062</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 29 May 2013 12:43:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/Abenomics-Is-to-Policy-Making-What/5/29/2013/id/50062</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In late February, the Wall Street Journal offered this thought:


	"Haruhiko Kuroda&#39;s first job as Bank of Japan governor may be to convince people he is a little crazy.
	
	"That is because the former finance-ministry official, who is expected to be nominated this week to be Japan&#39;s next central-bank head, would be given the task of reversing 15 years of price declines that have scourged the Japanese economy. To do that, economists say, he would have to convince investors, businesses and consumers in the world&#39;s third-largest economy that the central bank will do whatever it takes-including buying unlimited amounts of ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In late February, the Wall Street Journal offered this thought:


	"Haruhiko Kuroda&#39;s first job as Bank of Japan governor may be to convince people he is a little crazy.
	
	"That is because the former finance-ministry official, who is expected to be nominated this week to be Japan&#39;s next central-bank head, would be given the task of reversing 15 years of price declines that have scourged the Japanese economy. To do that, economists say, he would have to convince investors, businesses and consumers in the world&#39;s third-largest economy that the central bank will do whatever it takes-including buying unlimited amounts of ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Looking for Black or White in a Shades-of-Gray Market]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/economy-us-economy-economic-growth-stock/4/24/2013/id/49459</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 24 Apr 2013 16:10:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/economy-us-economy-economic-growth-stock/4/24/2013/id/49459</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[I was asked last week why I hadn't written something significant for Minyanville recently.  My response was, "I am watching the world around us instead."  The person I was speaking to walked away perplexed and shaking his head. I was a wimp for not having an opinion.

Turn on the TV, open the paper, or click into the blogosphere, everyone has an opinion &ndash; and a definite, if not extreme one at that.  Investing is all about confidence, and if, as a pundit, you don't have a clear, absolutely certain view, there is no room for you today.  Do you ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[I was asked last week why I hadn't written something significant for Minyanville recently.  My response was, "I am watching the world around us instead."  The person I was speaking to walked away perplexed and shaking his head. I was a wimp for not having an opinion.

Turn on the TV, open the paper, or click into the blogosphere, everyone has an opinion &ndash; and a definite, if not extreme one at that.  Investing is all about confidence, and if, as a pundit, you don't have a clear, absolutely certain view, there is no room for you today.  Do you ]]>
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			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Cyprus: An Inconvenient Truth (or, How Not to Manage a Debt Crisis)]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Cyprus253A-An-Inconvenient-Truth-2528or-How/3/26/2013/id/48924</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 26 Mar 2013 11:43:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Cyprus253A-An-Inconvenient-Truth-2528or-How/3/26/2013/id/48924</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Funny how one word can change the world. By his utterance of the word "template" yesterday, Mr. Dijsselbloem put European private investors on notice. Post-Cyprus, risk can and will be re-syndicated by the public sector going forward.

But while the reactions and retractions all make for great financial media entertainment, I am afraid they miss the bigger message from Cyprus.

Here is how I framed things to my clients last Friday, March 22, before the final "bailout" was announced:

The Impossible Dream 

No matter what the specific outcome from Cyprus over the weekend, Europe has now completely lost its ability ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Funny how one word can change the world. By his utterance of the word "template" yesterday, Mr. Dijsselbloem put European private investors on notice. Post-Cyprus, risk can and will be re-syndicated by the public sector going forward.

But while the reactions and retractions all make for great financial media entertainment, I am afraid they miss the bigger message from Cyprus.

Here is how I framed things to my clients last Friday, March 22, before the final "bailout" was announced:

The Impossible Dream 

No matter what the specific outcome from Cyprus over the weekend, Europe has now completely lost its ability ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Cyprus: What Matters Now Is the Story Investors Choose to Believe]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Cyprus253A-What-Matters-Now-is-the/3/19/2013/id/48811</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 19 Mar 2013 16:40:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Cyprus253A-What-Matters-Now-is-the/3/19/2013/id/48811</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman offers, "Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgment is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true."

As an observer of social mood and how changes in confidence alter our preferences, decisions, and actions, I come ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman offers, "Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that this judgment is correct. Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true."

As an observer of social mood and how changes in confidence alter our preferences, decisions, and actions, I come ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Four Important Messages From the Cyprus Situation]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Four-Important-Messages-From-the-Cyprus/3/18/2013/id/48765</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:26:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/Four-Important-Messages-From-the-Cyprus/3/18/2013/id/48765</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Judging by the tone on Twitter over the weekend, there were a lot of people flabbergasted by Friday's EU proposal to "tax" Cypriot depositors. While I didn't have the specifics precisely forecasted, I wasn't surprised at all. Cyprus fits. What was put forth pulls together and reflects four of the risk-themes I have been writing about for years for my clients and here on Minyanville.

So what were those risk-themes?

Resyndication Risk 
Since 2009, I have been beating the drum that it is all about the re-syndication of risk.  For overleveraged European nations, it has never been a question of ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Judging by the tone on Twitter over the weekend, there were a lot of people flabbergasted by Friday's EU proposal to "tax" Cypriot depositors. While I didn't have the specifics precisely forecasted, I wasn't surprised at all. Cyprus fits. What was put forth pulls together and reflects four of the risk-themes I have been writing about for years for my clients and here on Minyanville.

So what were those risk-themes?

Resyndication Risk 
Since 2009, I have been beating the drum that it is all about the re-syndication of risk.  For overleveraged European nations, it has never been a question of ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[If Mood Slides Again in Italy, Expect Berlusconi to Be Back in Office]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/italy-berlusconi-social-mood-silvio-berlusconi/2/22/2013/id/48319</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 22 Feb 2013 14:45:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/italy-berlusconi-social-mood-silvio-berlusconi/2/22/2013/id/48319</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In mid-December 2012, I offered the following thought to my clients:

In 2010, Nassir Ghaemi, the director of the Moods Disorder Program at Tufts Medical Center, wrote a book entitled A First-Rate Madness in which he identifies the consistent behavioral traits of some of great, albeit mentally unstable leaders &ndash; folks like Abraham Lincoln, William Tecumseh Sherman, Winston Churchill, Mahatma Gandhi, Franklin Roosevelt, Martin Luther King, Jr., etc.

What interested me about the book was not the specific leaders per se, but rather the fact that substantially all of them came to prominence during major bottoms in social mood.  My ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In mid-December 2012, I offered the following thought to my clients:

In 2010, Nassir Ghaemi, the director of the Moods Disorder Program at Tufts Medical Center, wrote a book entitled A First-Rate Madness in which he identifies the consistent behavioral traits of some of great, albeit mentally unstable leaders &ndash; folks like Abraham Lincoln, William Tecumseh Sherman, Winston Churchill, Mahatma Gandhi, Franklin Roosevelt, Martin Luther King, Jr., etc.

What interested me about the book was not the specific leaders per se, but rather the fact that substantially all of them came to prominence during major bottoms in social mood.  My ]]>
</content:encoded>
			</item>
			<item>
<title><![CDATA[The Paradox of Transparency: Is Central Bankers' Excessive Guidance Really Helping Investors?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/banking-crisis-2008-banking-crisis-banks/2/13/2013/id/48098</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 13 Feb 2013 12:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/banking-crisis-2008-banking-crisis-banks/2/13/2013/id/48098</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[In his book, The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver, the founder of the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com offers:


	The Finnish scientist Hanna Kokko likens building a statistical or predictive model to drawing a map.  It needs to contain enough detail to be helpful and do an honest job of representing the underlying landscape &ndash; you don't want to leave out large cities, prominent rivers and mountain ranges, or major highways. Too much detail, however, can be overwhelming to the traveler causing him to lose his way...

While some may cringe at the analogy, I'd offer that during ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[In his book, The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver, the founder of the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com offers:


	The Finnish scientist Hanna Kokko likens building a statistical or predictive model to drawing a map.  It needs to contain enough detail to be helpful and do an honest job of representing the underlying landscape &ndash; you don't want to leave out large cities, prominent rivers and mountain ranges, or major highways. Too much detail, however, can be overwhelming to the traveler causing him to lose his way...

While some may cringe at the analogy, I'd offer that during ]]>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[When Policymakers Become Extreme Reactionists: A Survival Guide for Investors]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/When-Policymakers-Become-Extreme-Reactionists253A-A/1/16/2013/id/47440</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 16 Jan 2013 12:50:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/When-Policymakers-Become-Extreme-Reactionists253A-A/1/16/2013/id/47440</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Newton's Third Law suggests that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  While that law may apply to the world of physics, his principle is of no use when it comes to politics.  While there is no group that reacts with such consistency to the forces of social mood as policymakers and regulators, their reaction always runs with mood, not against it.

For investors and business leaders, knowing how policymakers will react to changes in social mood is critical.  Changes in social mood alter our collective confidence and reshape our preferences and the choices we make.  What ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[Newton's Third Law suggests that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  While that law may apply to the world of physics, his principle is of no use when it comes to politics.  While there is no group that reacts with such consistency to the forces of social mood as policymakers and regulators, their reaction always runs with mood, not against it.

For investors and business leaders, knowing how policymakers will react to changes in social mood is critical.  Changes in social mood alter our collective confidence and reshape our preferences and the choices we make.  What ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[What Are the World's Headline Writers Inadvertently Telling Us About This Market?]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/social-mood-us-economy-market-news/1/8/2013/id/47237</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 8 Jan 2013 13:43:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/social-mood-us-economy-market-news/1/8/2013/id/47237</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[As a socionomist, I spend a lot of time looking at news reports. What happens in the world around us and what specific stories the media chooses to focus on says a lot about our current level of social mood. As I discuss in my book Moods and Markets, changes in mood drive changes in our underlying level of confidence and, in turn, what we prefer and our choices and actions. What few investors appreciate, though, is how transcendent changes in social mood really are. What influences our decisions to buy and sell stocks are the same factors that influence ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[As a socionomist, I spend a lot of time looking at news reports. What happens in the world around us and what specific stories the media chooses to focus on says a lot about our current level of social mood. As I discuss in my book Moods and Markets, changes in mood drive changes in our underlying level of confidence and, in turn, what we prefer and our choices and actions. What few investors appreciate, though, is how transcendent changes in social mood really are. What influences our decisions to buy and sell stocks are the same factors that influence ]]>
</content:encoded>
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<title><![CDATA[The Age of "Screw-tiny"]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/The-Age-of-Screw-tiny-business/1/2/2013/id/47065</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 2 Jan 2013 11:20:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/The-Age-of-Screw-tiny-business/1/2/2013/id/47065</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since 2007, I have offered a year-end perspective on what I see ahead for the markets. Given that every year since has brought with it a further redefinition of the word "unprecedented," I am not sure there is any real value to market prognostications.  As we have just witnessed in Japan, given the choice when pressed into action, policymakers will always choose to boost nominal asset prices.

Still, many of the social mood-driven themes which I have written about over the years continue to gain traction (see Years of Magical Thinking: Our World After the Banking Crisis and ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Since 2007, I have offered a year-end perspective on what I see ahead for the markets. Given that every year since has brought with it a further redefinition of the word "unprecedented," I am not sure there is any real value to market prognostications.  As we have just witnessed in Japan, given the choice when pressed into action, policymakers will always choose to boost nominal asset prices.

Still, many of the social mood-driven themes which I have written about over the years continue to gain traction (see Years of Magical Thinking: Our World After the Banking Crisis and ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[My, My, My Poker Face]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/My-My-My-Poker-Face-congress/11/29/2012/id/46208</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 29 Nov 2012 11:15:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/My-My-My-Poker-Face-congress/11/29/2012/id/46208</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[With Congress and the markets now playing a high stakes game of poker -- albeit with Congress playing by a different set of rules altogether -- here's some proposed scoring: 
 
A Pair: Boehner and McConnell or Reid and Pelosi say something positive:  +50 Dow point

Two Pairs: Boehner,  McConnell, Reid and Pelosi say something positive:  +100 points

Three of a Kind: Republican or Democratic leadership says something positive:  +25 points

Straight: Republican leadership, excluding Log Cabin Republicans, say something positive: +20 points

Flush: Congress agrees to tax dividends at ordinary income rates: -500 points

Full House: Representatives agree to fiscal ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[With Congress and the markets now playing a high stakes game of poker -- albeit with Congress playing by a different set of rules altogether -- here's some proposed scoring: 
 
A Pair: Boehner and McConnell or Reid and Pelosi say something positive:  +50 Dow point

Two Pairs: Boehner,  McConnell, Reid and Pelosi say something positive:  +100 points

Three of a Kind: Republican or Democratic leadership says something positive:  +25 points

Straight: Republican leadership, excluding Log Cabin Republicans, say something positive: +20 points

Flush: Congress agrees to tax dividends at ordinary income rates: -500 points

Full House: Representatives agree to fiscal ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[HP/Autonomy-Type Accounting Issues Likely to Proliferate and Trigger Tougher FASB Rules]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/M2526A-mergers-and-acquisitions-global-growth/11/27/2012/id/46113</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 27 Nov 2012 09:55:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/M2526A-mergers-and-acquisitions-global-growth/11/27/2012/id/46113</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL As we have since learned, at the peak of the mortgage bubble, "no doc" and even "liar loans" were offered in remarkable supply.  Thanks to unprecedented confidence in the stability of American home prices, borrower scrutiny was deemed to be superfluous, if not outright unnecessary.  At the top, the operating protocol for many in the mortgage industry seemed to be simply a civilian version of the military&#39;s controversial "don't ask, don't tell" policy, which was repealed a year ago.

As a socionomist who tracks social mood and how changes in confidence affect our decision-making, it is hard not ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL As we have since learned, at the peak of the mortgage bubble, "no doc" and even "liar loans" were offered in remarkable supply.  Thanks to unprecedented confidence in the stability of American home prices, borrower scrutiny was deemed to be superfluous, if not outright unnecessary.  At the top, the operating protocol for many in the mortgage industry seemed to be simply a civilian version of the military&#39;s controversial "don't ask, don't tell" policy, which was repealed a year ago.

As a socionomist who tracks social mood and how changes in confidence affect our decision-making, it is hard not ]]>
</content:encoded>
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			<item>
<title><![CDATA[Four Years After the Financial Bubble Burst, Banks Persist in Multiple 'One-Time' Write-Downs]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/financial/articles/Banks2527-Post-Bubble-Aftermath-Continues-CRARY/11/12/2012/id/45769</link>
<pubDate>
			Mon, 12 Nov 2012 12:13:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/financial/articles/Banks2527-Post-Bubble-Aftermath-Continues-CRARY/11/12/2012/id/45769</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On Friday, Credit Agricole (EPA:ACA) released its third quarter numbers, reporting a loss of &euro;2.85 billion, which included a charge of &euro;1.96 billion on the sale of Emporiki to Alpha Bank (PINK:ALBKY) for a symbolic &euro;1.  In addition, CA also took a charge of &euro;181 million on the sale of its CA Cheuvreux brokerage unit to Kepler Capital Markets, a writedown of &euro;193 million related to the deconsolidation of its holding in Bankinter, a goodwill impairment for its consumer finance unit of &euro;572 million and &euro;647 million in CVA/DVA charges.

Unfortunately, Jean-Paul Chifflet, the CEO, offered these thoughts ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On Friday, Credit Agricole (EPA:ACA) released its third quarter numbers, reporting a loss of &euro;2.85 billion, which included a charge of &euro;1.96 billion on the sale of Emporiki to Alpha Bank (PINK:ALBKY) for a symbolic &euro;1.  In addition, CA also took a charge of &euro;181 million on the sale of its CA Cheuvreux brokerage unit to Kepler Capital Markets, a writedown of &euro;193 million related to the deconsolidation of its holding in Bankinter, a goodwill impairment for its consumer finance unit of &euro;572 million and &euro;647 million in CVA/DVA charges.

Unfortunately, Jean-Paul Chifflet, the CEO, offered these thoughts ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Key Takeaways From Bank Earnings So Far]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/earnings/articles/jpm-wfc-c-ms-jpmorgan-wells/10/16/2012/id/45036</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 16 Oct 2012 10:35:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/earnings/articles/jpm-wfc-c-ms-jpmorgan-wells/10/16/2012/id/45036</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I first started writing for Minyanville, I offered that to understand the financial services industry, one had to appreciate that earnings are the past and the balance sheet is the future. 

As I reflect on the earnings reports from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) over the past several days, I was reminded of this thought.  To appreciate what is ahead for the industry, it&#39;s imporant to remember that it&#39;s not what these firms reported this quarter that matters, but rather what clues now sit on their balance sheets.

Looking at Wells Fargo's quarter end ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL When I first started writing for Minyanville, I offered that to understand the financial services industry, one had to appreciate that earnings are the past and the balance sheet is the future. 

As I reflect on the earnings reports from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) over the past several days, I was reminded of this thought.  To appreciate what is ahead for the industry, it&#39;s imporant to remember that it&#39;s not what these firms reported this quarter that matters, but rather what clues now sit on their balance sheets.

Looking at Wells Fargo's quarter end ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Ben 'Buzz Lightyear' Bernanke and the Fed's New Challenge Ahead]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/investor-sentiment-affect-on-fed-on/9/28/2012/id/44411</link>
<pubDate>
			Fri, 28 Sep 2012 13:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/investor-sentiment-affect-on-fed-on/9/28/2012/id/44411</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[Editor&#39;s note: This article originally published on September 18, 2012.

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In the afterglow of the Federal Reserve's Buzz Lightyear "to infinity and beyond" commitment to purchase up to an unlimited amount of financial assets until... well, until, the financial and media pundit comments have been simple, clear, and extraordinarily consistent. For example, from the MarketBeat blog of the Wall Street Journal: "Does anybody have any doubt that the major indexes will hit all-time highs?"  Or this from The Economist: "Who would bet against a central bank that can conjure money from thin air?"

While on the surface, these ]]>
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	<![CDATA[Editor&#39;s note: This article originally published on September 18, 2012.

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In the afterglow of the Federal Reserve's Buzz Lightyear "to infinity and beyond" commitment to purchase up to an unlimited amount of financial assets until... well, until, the financial and media pundit comments have been simple, clear, and extraordinarily consistent. For example, from the MarketBeat blog of the Wall Street Journal: "Does anybody have any doubt that the major indexes will hit all-time highs?"  Or this from The Economist: "Who would bet against a central bank that can conjure money from thin air?"

While on the surface, these ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Ben 'Buzz Lightyear' Bernanke and the Fed's New Challenge Ahead]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/investor-sentiment-affect-on-fed-on/9/18/2012/id/44106</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 18 Sep 2012 12:15:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/politics-and-regulation/articles/investor-sentiment-affect-on-fed-on/9/18/2012/id/44106</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In the afterglow of the Federal Reserve's Buzz Lightyear "to infinity and beyond" commitment to purchase up to an unlimited amount of financial assets until... well, until, the financial and media pundit comments have been simple, clear, and extraordinarily consistent. For example, from the MarketBeat blog of the Wall Street Journal: "Does anybody have any doubt that the major indexes will hit all-time highs?"  Or this from The Economist: "Who would bet against a central bank that can conjure money from thin air?"

While on the surface, these comments should be viewed as positive indicators for the market ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In the afterglow of the Federal Reserve's Buzz Lightyear "to infinity and beyond" commitment to purchase up to an unlimited amount of financial assets until... well, until, the financial and media pundit comments have been simple, clear, and extraordinarily consistent. For example, from the MarketBeat blog of the Wall Street Journal: "Does anybody have any doubt that the major indexes will hit all-time highs?"  Or this from The Economist: "Who would bet against a central bank that can conjure money from thin air?"

While on the surface, these comments should be viewed as positive indicators for the market ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Central Bankers and the Markets: A Worrisome Correlation in Confidence]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/255EGSPC-s2526p-500-peter-atwater-central/9/6/2012/id/43765</link>
<pubDate>
			Thu, 6 Sep 2012 10:25:00EST
</pubDate>
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			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/255EGSPC-s2526p-500-peter-atwater-central/9/6/2012/id/43765</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Earlier this summer, David Lucca and Emanuel Moench, two economists at the NY Federal Reserve, reported that "since 1994, more than 80% of the equity premium on US stocks has been earned over the twenty-four hours preceding scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements."  Per Lucca and Moench, without this phenomena, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) would be trading today closer to 600, rather than its current 1400 level.

While on the surface policymakers' ability to lift nominal asset prices to such heights may appear to be a strength to be celebrated, I am afraid that the front running ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Earlier this summer, David Lucca and Emanuel Moench, two economists at the NY Federal Reserve, reported that "since 1994, more than 80% of the equity premium on US stocks has been earned over the twenty-four hours preceding scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements."  Per Lucca and Moench, without this phenomena, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) would be trading today closer to 600, rather than its current 1400 level.

While on the surface policymakers' ability to lift nominal asset prices to such heights may appear to be a strength to be celebrated, I am afraid that the front running ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[From Socially Aware to Socially Attentive Investing]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/social-mood-investing-investing-tips-investor/8/14/2012/id/43200</link>
<pubDate>
			Tue, 14 Aug 2012 12:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/social-mood-investing-investing-tips-investor/8/14/2012/id/43200</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On Friday, Reuters reported that Commerzbank had removed agricultural products from a commodity index fund "after accusations that speculation has pushed up food prices and fuelled unrest in some poor countries."  According to Reuters, the fund, the ComStage ETF CB Commodity EW Index TR, has assets of $145.1 million, and was restructured on July 30 to now contain 12 metals and energy commodities.

As someone who has been openly looking for signs of "capitulation" in the corn space, I was not surprised at all by the news. Still, I couldn't help but wonder whether Commerzbank's action was indicative ]]>
</description>
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	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On Friday, Reuters reported that Commerzbank had removed agricultural products from a commodity index fund "after accusations that speculation has pushed up food prices and fuelled unrest in some poor countries."  According to Reuters, the fund, the ComStage ETF CB Commodity EW Index TR, has assets of $145.1 million, and was restructured on July 30 to now contain 12 metals and energy commodities.

As someone who has been openly looking for signs of "capitulation" in the corn space, I was not surprised at all by the news. Still, I couldn't help but wonder whether Commerzbank's action was indicative ]]>
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<title><![CDATA[Standard Chartered Gets Mauled by Weak Social Mood]]></title>
<link>
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/scbff-bank-banks-hbc-hsbc-standard/8/8/2012/id/43046</link>
<pubDate>
			Wed, 8 Aug 2012 11:00:00EST
</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="true">
			http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/editors-pick/articles/scbff-bank-banks-hbc-hsbc-standard/8/8/2012/id/43046</guid>
<description>
<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL All I could think reading the expletive-laden quote from an unnamed Standard Chartered (SCBFF) executive this week was the scene in the Treasure of The Sierra Madre where they say, "Badges?  We don't need no stinking badges!"

Talk about a case study in what not to say during a period of weak social mood.

What the unnamed Standard Chartered executive and many of his brethren still don't get is how social mood and regulation tie together.
 
During periods of rising social mood we scrutinize less and we strive for uniform regulation.  That Glass Steagall was repealed and Basel ]]>
</description>
<content:encoded>
	<![CDATA[MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL All I could think reading the expletive-laden quote from an unnamed Standard Chartered (SCBFF) executive this week was the scene in the Treasure of The Sierra Madre where they say, "Badges?  We don't need no stinking badges!"

Talk about a case study in what not to say during a period of weak social mood.

What the unnamed Standard Chartered executive and many of his brethren still don't get is how social mood and regulation tie together.
 
During periods of rising social mood we scrutinize less and we strive for uniform regulation.  That Glass Steagall was repealed and Basel ]]>
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