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Weak Long-Haul Trucking Fuel Data No Match for Economist's Adjustments

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The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, released each month by UCLA Anderson School of Management, showed June took away two-thirds of May's 3.1% gain. The adjusted data was more than 20% lower month over month, quite a blow following renewed optimism in May. Of course, say the Ceridian-UCLA Anderson School economists, "prospects for growth in industrial production, which were upgraded following the exceptional May PCI, have been rolled back because of the weakness in June." However, that doesn't mean things aren't looking rosier! And they give three reasons why:

1. Some of the Memorial Day effect, which usually is confined to May, leaked into June this year, making May
appear better but June appear worse.

2. The weakness in June was confined to the first two weeks, and the month finished strong, raising hopes for a
strong July.

3. Even though June is weak, year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons remain very positive, very far
from numbers that would hint of a double-dip recession anytime soon.

Full report.

From the report, Industrial Production with the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index overlaid.

POSITION:  No positions in stocks mentioned.