Neil Hume of FT Alphaville directs us to the views of Albert Edwards: "Amid the recent euro-related turbulence, the SocGen bear says not enough attention has been paid to the rapidly vanishing core CPI inflation rates in the US and the eurozone. And it should be because Edwards reckons were are only one cyclical mishap from joining Japan in outright deflation."
Via FT Alphaville comes a note from JP Morgan economist James Glassman, in which he skewers Congress for its unabashed economic illiteracy displayed at the Goldman hearings last week. "Flip assertions about what is and is not socially valuable reflect a confusion about our market economy that is as fundamental as knowing that George Washington was the first president of the United States. May
Lloyd Blankfein sure will be happy to see the focus turn back to former Lehman chief Dick Fuld. FT Alphaville reports on a Bloomberg story that's not yet available online that shows that Fuld earned significantly more than he stated to Congress. "While Fuld said he earned less than $310 million from 2000 through 2007, he actually had received $529.4 million, according to Budde's calcula
"Synthetic securities are not so strange. Many retail investors own them," the blog Interfluidity notes. "If you hold a commodity ETF or a equity ETF that tracks its benchmark via futures, you hold a synthetic security. Like a synthetic CDO, commodity and equity ETFs are investment vehicles that hold very vanilla "collateral securities" (like Treasury bills), but simu
FT Alphaville points us to a rather interesting emerging markets call from analyst Ricardo Amaral on Nouriel Roubini's research site: "The Brazilian formula for success includes periods of dictatorship, and Brazil had three periods in its history when Brazil benefited from being under a certain form of a government; benevolent dictatorial regime," wrote Mr. Amaral, adding, "I am not
"Are fund managers becoming complacent? If the latest BofA Merrill Lynch survey of the profession is anything to go by there is certainly reason to think so," Neil Hume reports on FT Alphaville. "According to the April report the number of investors taking "above normal risk" in their portfolios is now at its highest level since 2006, while the number of respondents pred
"The estimate is that by the year 2105, the population in Japan will have plunged from its current 127 million to around 45 million. A 65% drop for those keeping score. The action has only gotten started. Last year, the population decline was a modest 75,000, but by the end of this decade the yearly decline should be in the 500,000-1,000,000 range."
"By looking at the capital stock to labour ratio I try to explain why the global excess savings post the equity crash prompted a residential and commercial real estate binge," Kevin GAynor writes at FTAlphaville. "The problem is that the surplus economies are likely to keep on generating surpluses while the investment needs in the west remain meagre on an ongoing basis given the exc