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Here Is That Bullish 'New Super-Cycle' Report Everyone Is Talking About

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THE LONG VIEW
DailyFeed
This morning everyone is talking about a report by Standard Chartered Bank outlining the case for a "new super-cycle" driven by industrialization and urbanization of emerging markets and global trade. Great. So, what is a "super-cycle"? According to the report, "“A period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.”

Based on this definition, there have been two super-cycles experienced by the global economy. The first was during the second half of the 19th century, from 1870 to 1913, the second was after WWII, which lasted until the early 1970s.

(See the full report here.)

A couple of interesting charts from the report:

This illustrates the percentage weighting of nominal global GDP by country. Note that projections for 2030 show the U.S. accounting for half as much of global GDP as the economy currently does.





This shows the number of patents filed by country.



And then this: percentage of world exports by country. Note the rapid growth of China.


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