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Amazon, Apple, and Google Celebrate This Anniversary Tomorrow
November 20, 2013 02:26 PM
JEFF COOPER'S MARKET ANALYSIS
is the anniversary of the crash low on November 21, 2008.
This was when many key stocks like
) made lows. Many foreign markets made lows at that time as well.
I can’t help but wonder with Apple forming a tight pennant formation since its Key Reversal Day on November 29 if Apple may be carving out a high, having come within 1% of a 50% retrace at 545 of the 705-to-385 decline. Interestingly, on the Square of 9 Wheel, this 320-point range aligns with November 28 (plus or minus one week of the 5-year anniversary of the November 21 low). Squaring the range, 320 vibrates off November 29.
Daily AAPL Chart from April 2012 to Present:
So, the indication on the Square of 9 is that Apple should resolve its pennant into the end of November and that Apple's direction coming out of the pennant should be an important tell for the market.
I give a lot of weight to the 60-month cycle. Because this is a long cycle, it won't hit precisely on the anniversary.
For example, the big November 2012 low was a composite of two 60-month cycles. It was 120 months from the 2002 bear market low on
October 9, 10, and 11
and 60 months from the October 9 through October 10 high in 2007.
The cycle skewed plus-one to the right, with the low hitting in November 2012. That said, there was a big pivot high in September 2012, which had several cycle watchers thinking a high was playing out.
Since the last occurrence of the 60-month cycle (and two occurences of the 60-month cycle) was a low, perhaps this time around, it will be a high.
But, it is worth considering that it could skew to the left again by a month, with the market holding up into year end. Perhaps after a shakeout, the market will take a sleigh ride back up.
Be that as it may, until this week, when many glamours took gas (the 3D stocks for example), it seemed a foregone conclusion by the vast majority of players that the expected Santa Claus rally would play out. Whenever there is a universality of opinion in the markets, what everyone knows is usually not worth knowing.
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Positions in IWM and SPY
TIGHT PENNANT FORMATION
320-POINT RANGE ALIGNS
DAILY AAPL CHART
SANTA CLAUS RALLY
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