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Many Stocks Entering My Buy Ranges, But...

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Many stocks are entering my buy ranges again. The question is how much short-term risk do individual names have until we get news of a deal?

Frankly, I don't know and I think anyone who says they do is delusional. What I do feel (and think I know) is that the actual economic damage from going over the Cliff, the Cliff negotiations, and all things Fiscal Cliff related isn't nearly as great as we have been hearing. To me this feels a lot like the Greece elections earlier this year as well as many other political issues around the globe we have been faced with over the last 2-3 years. In fact, while I'm in the minority here, I think a broad reduction in gov't spending would be quite good and not cause near the damage that many claim.

Moreover, this is not TARP 1 NOT passing! Why? Because back during TARP 1, the TARP deal was minor. We were in full-fledged global financial meltdown mode with very recessive business shutdown conditions. And I'll note that the repeal of FAS157 (mark to market accounting), was far more beneficial to the US banking system than the TARP 2 deal was. Today, the backdrop of the global economic environment is far far different.

I also think the conditions today are even quite a bit different than last summer. Many people blame the debt negotiations on the full correction in the summer of 2011. That is flat out wrong. We had a 3 tiered mix -- debt deal, EU wrestling with crisis conditions, and a Japananese economy that was in full freefall from that horrible Tsunami. But even with all those conditions last summer, I posted a note where I countered the ECRI recession call and was correct.

Bottom line, I watchful of the current situation and will pick my spots as usual. As I started this post, I see many names entering compelling buy ranges again but I'm not feeling a huge urge to grab a lot of long sided inventory just yet.

That said, the names that will garner my attention first will likely be Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Acme Packet (APKT), and possibly Fusion-io (FIO) as I see FIO trading better once we clear this year and tax loss selling.
POSITION:  Position in FB,AAPL,APKT,FIO

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