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Gut Call on AAPL: Now It's Really Down Too Much

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The following is a sample report of Sean's TechStrat Report.

I think there now exists pretty good odds that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) could make a key low in the 512-516 area. As always, it's nearly impossible to call lows but I will say this. Any ground lost under the $512 should be made up quite quickly on any future market lift.

Here are my reasons why:
  • I'm encouraged by what looks like a quiet return to Google maps. This is something I said would occur when the iPhone was released. Specifically, that Google Maps would be back as a platform App. The mistake AAPL made was waiting too long.
  • I still think the next two quarters set up very well.
  • I'm hearing more TV chatter. And this is key for me to stick with the name beyond 2013. Personally, I think we can almost be assured of a TV product at this point, it's now a matter of timing.
  • I'm also hearing (in deep rumor land) that AAPL has started development of a touchscreen laptop. Something I have been pounding the table on!!
  • Lastly, even cable companies are talking about bandwidth requirements on an AAPL TV product.
  • I'll add that this only further increases the evidence of a bandwidth turn.
Bottom line, I very much feel vindicated on my many cautious AAPL calls (especially relative to Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM)), for much of this year but there is a danger to stick with an opinion to fervently. However, I've recently stated that I felt we could be moving into a position where AAPL could/should outperform GOOG and now with the stock about $20 below where I made that statement, I'm feeling even more confident about that call. Thus, at this point, I'd be quite surprised if AAPL did not materially outperform GOOG (and the market) for the next 2-5 months or better said, through the remainder of Q4 and extending through Q1.

My next purchases on AAPL will now gravitate to common and outright calls vs. just the calls spreads I've been nibbling at of late.

The TechStrat Report by Sean Udall. Sean provides in-depth analysis, strategies and trades across the technology sector. Take a FREE 14 day trial.

Twitter: @UdallTechStrat