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AVT vs. AAPL/GOOG/Cloud: What Is a Better Indicator?
October 10, 2012 12:40 PM
I've gotten a few queries on the
(AVT) weakness and it's implications into the Tech landscape. Jim Cramer has always keyed off AVT as a "tech indicator". I think many of you (readers of TechStrat and maybe Buzz since 2007) have read little in the way of AVT from me, either as an indicator for my key portfolio names or the broader tech sector.
I think AVT used to be a better barometer of the high-growth tech areas, especially when enterprise PC, networking and server/mainframe deployments were the primaries growth drivers for tech spending.
Further, I still think AVT is useful in regard to those areas. So what do we already know?
-AVT itself was already 23% off of 52 week highs.
-AVT can be a lagging indicator, especially at turning points.
-No one is buying PC's in front of the Win 8 launch. Just look at
-PC sales have been hurt by the tablet migration. Just look at
and the coming
-The next phase of the PC industry will be dictated by smaller form factor devices (Win 8 Tab's and Ultrabooks etc...). The effect is to be seen.
-Networking is punk as carriers have essentially to decided to spend only on maintenance until the election and behind 4G deployments. Note the low price points of
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Position in GOOG, AAPL, CSCO, JNPR.
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