1. You're going to spend more, but not much moreBelts will be loosening all over America on Black Friday, but that will mostly be from turkey overload. While economists say the bleak part of the recession is over, most of us still beg to differ. The National Retail Federation says this year people will spend an average of $7 more than they did last year, which wouldn't even get you an extra Sing-a-Ma-Jig. What do you think? We asked early shoppers at the Manhattan Mall and here's what they had to say:2. You'll buy more online, and on your phoneThe leap from thinking about a gift to buying one is closing, thanks to social media and smart phones. Last year, 42% of holiday shoppers did some online shopping, according to the NRF. This year, you can expect that number to jump significantly, as even Great Grandma has high-speed Internet and knows what to do with it. And expect the growing trend of getting coupons and alerts on your phone to convert people to clicking through and buying stuff on their phones, which they've been reluctant to do so far except for song and app purchases.3. You'll shop in a pop-up storeWith more than 600 Toys R Us pop-up stores to choose from, and empty mall space being filled daily by the likes of Etsy, Piperlime, Harry & David, Tron and Glee, you'll no doubt stumble into one of these temporary shops. There's now a blog, Pop-up Insider, to track the ins and out of the fad, or shall we say, retail trend. The value of these quickie locations to consumers is that it allows customers to view and touch merchandise that you usually can only find online (in the case of internet-only retailers). It also allows consumers to get in and out faster with major retailers like Toys R Us and Borders.4. You're going to buy a mobile device — one way or anotherYou can, indeed, take it with you. And you will. We'll go out on a limb and say the likelihood of you buying some kind of mobile device this holiday season, whether for you or as a gift, is pretty much 100%. So what's it going to be? An iPad, the most coveted of them all, which probably won't be on sale? Or will it be a simple portable DVD player, which you could snag for under $25? Even if you are a naysayer, you at least will be buying accessories for the mobile devices you already have — songs, movies, cases or even just an iTunes gift certificate.5. If you go over budget, you're going to pay moreCredit card interest rates have skyrocketed in the past year and credit limits have been tamped down. So if you're going to break the bank for your holiday spending, your options are pretty weak. If you charge a lot and don't pay it off at the end of the billing cycle, you're going to be hit with hefty fees. If you go past your new lower spending cap, you're going to get dinged. If you open up new cards to cover costs, you're going to hurt your credit rating in the long term if you can't pay them off or if you close them after the holidays. It's a lose-lose situation, so spend wisely.6. You're going to pay more with your debit card than ever before, and you'll get as many gift cards as you giveBecause credit card rules have made buyers beware, more people than ever this year are going to pay with debit cards or cash instead, according to a recent survey. But what may start with good intentions could end up with fees — so watch out for overdrafts. This year will also be the biggest one yet for the gift card sub-economy, where you do actually end up living by the maxim "give and ye shall receive." Expect to get as many gift cards as you receive, basically canceling them out as a plus for anyone but the retailers, who count on people losing them or just forgetting to spend them.