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Thanksgiving Thoughts: Healthcare, Bernanke, WaMu...


Have you hugged your Index puts today?

  • In the D.C. area BMW has started a pretty heavy TV advertising campaign for "previously owned vehicles." Perhaps it means nothing, but a contact at a local BMW dealership suggests that there's more than an occasional "busted-lease" from previously "home-rich" lessees.

  • I am getting longer (selling puts) some healthcare names, including Zimmer Hldgs. (ZMH) and Accuray (ARAY). Gotta be long something.

  • I did not have time to figure out whether to press my Whole Foods (WFMI) short as the stock popped to $46 in yesterday's afternoon trading. In hindsight the answer was obviously yes. That said I'll gladly cover at $40 by December option expiration, if the stock closes at or below that strike, and wait for higher prices.

  • As I was chatting with Prof. Markman yesterday, he commented that seasonality (typically positive around holidays) matters far more when it does not show up than when it does. More turkey thoughts.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) just ticked negative for the year and the anxiety is palpable. Is "not making money" the new tolerance level for risk? Has the housing bubble completely erased the memories of real panic at the 2002 bottoms?

  • Have you hugged your Index puts today?

  • 2.96% on the 3-month bill versus 4.50% Fed fund rate = big problems.

  • Could Boom Boom stop his "Black Friday" shopping for a surprise cut? What would plunge faster, his credibility or the greenback?

  • Could Bush blink and deliver oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to Americans' stockings?

  • When will WaMu (WM) cut its dividend? Does anyone think that it's not priced in? (My hand just jerked up uncontrollably.)
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Positions in ZMH, ARAY, SPX, IFN and WFMI.
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