Why Investors Should Cross Whole Foods Off Their Shopping Lists

By Josh Lipton Aug 17, 2009 3:05 pm
Stockpickers have piled into WFMI -- but it's about as attractive as spoiled milk.
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The Mother Earth-friendly crowd might enjoy the natural, organic foods lining the pristine shelves of their neighborhood Whole Foods Market (WFMI), but some of them don’t seem as appreciative of the politics of the company’s chief executive.

John Mackey, the controversial co-founder and CEO of Whole Foods, penned an editorial last week in The Wall Street Journal, in which he came down hard on Obama’s health care reform plan. Mackey called for a move toward “less government control and more individual empowerment” rather than “a massive new health-care entitlement that will create hundreds of billions of dollars of new unfunded deficits and move us much closer to a government takeover of our health-care system.”

Unsurprisingly, not all of Mackey’s Prius (TM)-driving customers appear to agree with his views. (Though he's certainly managed to alienate them before: see CEOs Gone Wild: John Mackey for more.) Now, some of these once loyal patrons are threatening to boycott Whole Foods to demonstrate their opposition.

Those Whole Foods shoppers with a left-leaning political bias and a web connection have moved to the Internet, where they’re using social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook to press for the boycott.

Of course, boycotts are difficult to orchestrate and research analysts covering Whole Foods don’t see the threats as posing any kind of real cause for concern for the company. Frankly, it’s hard to see how these shoppers could really act on their political impulses: if they steer clear of Whole Foods altogether, where else can they go to buy all that organic applesauce?

This morning, longtime market pro Dennis Gartman weighed in with his views on the controversy: “People who will go to a store wearing Birkenstocks and socks will take almost any outlandish position, and they’ve taken a position opposed to Mr. Mackey’s editorial in The Wall Street Journal last week that took Obamacare to task,” Gartman wrote. “When your own supporters are willing to abandon you, who will support you? It seems like a good question.”

But enough about whether or not you should shop at Whole Foods. The bigger question is whether or not you should dump the stock.

S&P equity analyst Joseph Agnese thinks you should avoid Whole Foods like a carton of spoiled milk. Agnese, who currently has a “Sell” rating on the company, says the food retailer is now just looking too pricey, says the analyst.

“It is a great company but the valuation isn’t matching what the growth will be,” Agnese tells Minyanville.

Indeed, Whole Foods shares have surged 190% in the past 6 months, and it now looks expensive relative to its expected earnings power, with a price/earnings to growth ratio of 2.13. (Anything under one is considered a good deal.)

Looking ahead, Agnese sees problems for the company, as spendthrift consumers coming out of this recession save more and spend less, which will keep a lid on the sales growth at Whole Foods, he argues. In the third quarter, the food retailer said sales edged up 2% while sales at stores open at least a year slipped 2.5%.

“People aren’t trading up like they used to and they will be slow to return to that type of behavior,” the analyst says.

Where's the stock headed from here? Katie Stockton, chief market technician at MKM Partners, says Whole Foods is poised to fill its gap down to $24.87, at a minimum, as the market pulls back.

For those stock pickers that are still interested in playing with the grocers in general, Agnese does offer some suggestions. Broadly speaking, he likes those retailers targeting cheapskate shoppers such as Kroger (KR), which he rates a “Buy,” with a price target of $25.

“Those who differentiate to the higher end aren’t as well positioned as those who cater to more price-sensitive customers,” says the analyst.
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(13)
2009-08-17 17:49:01
Boycott of Whole Foods
.. Actually, boycotts are really easy these days thanks to the 'net! We boycotted Glenn Beck/Hannity/Faux News and they LOST a lot of advertisers! Faux is now moving up advertisers that paid for cheap slots in the middle of the night to Beck's prime time openings. Although the advertisers kind of like the good slots for dirt cheap money, they have been barraged with botcott emails of people refusing to shop them because of Beck/Hannity calling for Osama to hit the USA with another 9/11 only NUCLEAR this time! They claim THAT is the ONLY SOLUTION to help them get some EvilBushies elected again to 'protect' us! They also call Pres. Obama a Nazi... NO public option = NO healthcare 'reform'! The Health Insurers will just continue to collude and rip us off without gov't competition. So, looks like we add Whole Foods to our effective BOYCOTT email/action list! Please: Email them TODAY with the BAD NEWS!
2009-08-17 18:08:07
Boycott of Whole Foods
You are an IDIOT
2009-08-17 18:42:55
Whole Foods
There are a LOT of alternatives to WF here on the West Coast....food coops, Trader Joes, Walmart even, and most of the national and local retailers have significant organic and specialty food offerings. Too bad for WF.

Steve Mach
2009-08-17 18:46:28
Boycott of Whole Foods
I never shopped at Whole Foods before. I really don't care if my food is "organic" or not, but I am going to start shopping at Whole Foods now. Oh, and when is Glenn Beck on? I hardly ever watch TV but this seems to be a show I need to watch. Thanks for the heads up, Buzz.
2009-08-17 19:20:00
Boycott of Whole Foods
.. Who knew so many UnAmerican people living in the USA wanted the USA to get hit with another 9/11 ?? At least they're all in the WHACKO MINORITY now...
2009-08-17 19:26:58
Boycott on Whole Foods BACKFIRES!
One only had to read the comments (well over 1000) on the ABC news site on this article to see where public sentiment was. By a ratio approaching 100 to 1, people were supporting Whole Foods and talking of backing up their support by shopping there. Just as the boycott against Glenn Beck and Fox News is failing miserably and also having the inverse effect of drawing consumers to the advertisers, so it is at Whole Foods. And the people who are upset are the people who actually earn money and consume - as opposed to leaching money and whining.
2009-08-17 19:40:11
Boycott of Whole Foods
Yes, that's true. ;)
2009-08-18 00:22:26
Just shopped at Whole Foods today and the lines did not look as if there were a boycott here! So when can we know to buy a stock BEFORE it appreciates 190% is my real question!
2009-08-18 00:58:50
I had heard of Mackey's comments, but never did I hear of a boycott. Seems like a promotion when it trumps (in this article) the valuation of the company, which is what I intend to read about.
2009-08-18 01:41:53
Boycott the industrial food chains. Make your health first.
Local Whole Foods still packed.
In the long run, Whole Foods will take away market share from those that educate themselves to the real dangers in consuming industrial junk food sold at the "conventional" supermarkets. But in time, these chains will be only good for one thing: toilet paper, as the garbage that they sell will be a thing of the past.
Whole Foods and similar stores that offer REAL quality will become the norm and ONLY accepted way of eating for health.
2009-08-18 12:22:13
Why would anyone invest in a company dependent on high income individuals when the trend is for a lower standard of living as the country is going broke.
2009-08-19 06:25:14
good for john mackey. the assumption here is that the rich want bigger government and i am not sure that is true.
2009-08-19 16:28:12
To everybody who thinks Whole Foods is a healthier, therefore more viable option than conventional stores:
All organic foods is right now is a hype that will eventually die down. There are no significant health benefits from it than conventional produced foods. If anything, it just has many equal harmful health effects (Since organic pesticide for produce is a lot weaker than their synthetic counterparts, seven times of it must be used. It contains natural poisons including rotenone, which is proven to show signs of Parkinson's)
Sometime soon people will start doing the research themselves (Such as finding out that organic farms are owned by the same conglomerates who own conventional farms and the fact that organic farms cause more deforestation due to less food planted per acre, meaning double the size of land used to produce conventional food to get the organic equivalent) and it will die down. You people would be wise to invest your money elsewhere.
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