Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Finish Up
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Yeah, and... - Todd Harrison - 3:15 PM
As I was juggling a few calls during the last Buzz on Bear, I wanted to follow up and follow through. It was, after all, one of the perceived catalysts yesterday and if it's being debunked (as we sorta thought it might), it's worthy of a chew.
First, it's worth saying that there are often reasons assigned to the Wall Street rhyme. The Bear chatter was front and center following the liftage but, as is often the case, the market machination is multi-linear and ever-changing. Performance anxiety, drippy dollars, central bank agendas and other elements are likely more pertinent (and yes, that works in both directions)
As for whether this will "matter" today, it's worth noting that--so far--NYSE internals remain 2:1 positive. Bear is off almost 3% (still considerably higher than it was yesterday morning) but, as it stands, it hasn't pulled it's brokerage brethren lower in synch. So, see both sides no matter how you riding the tide.
I have, for better or for worse, right or wrong, IN-N-OUT, pared my short side risk (although I'm still skewed Boo). I took a little lump on my noggin but it happens and I'm a big boy. Onward and upward---or downward, as the case may be--as we continue to digest one of the most interesting periods in financial market history.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Food for Thought: Wheat, Corn, Soybeans - Sally Limantour - 3:10 PM
Soybeans went over the $10 per bushel mark today and wheat is over $9 per bushel.
This May I wrote about energy, food prices and inflation. Given the huge move copper had relative to the agricultural markets I recommended being overweight in the grains and energy and underweight in copper. Since then we have seen outsized gains in the agriculture sector, with wheat rallying from $4.93 a bushel to a high today of $9.45, (December wheat) a gain of 91%.
The soybean market has rallied $1.87 per bushel or 33%, while corn, which had moved +67% since the lows of 2006, rallied into July then broke 34% as farmers planted aggressively to take advantage of high prices.
Corn prices have rallied from their lows in late July and are now back to last May's prices. Crude oil prices made a high last week of 81.17 (basis the December futures) a gain of 29.5% from their lows in mid May of 62.00. Copper, meanwhile, did rally into July, broke in mid-August and is now back to levels last July. Should copper take out the 3.70 area we could start another leg higher.
I look for further gains in both the energy market and the agricultural markets as geopolitical concerns remain in the background and the world supply demand situation becomes tighter for the agricultural sector. Weather concerns persist in the areas of the world that grow wheat, soybeans and corn and it looks as though weakness is to be bought rather than selling strength.
Click here to enlarge.
Positions in corn, wheat, soybeans, energy and agriculture stocks.
LVS and WYNN Next? - Jeffrey Cooper - 11:38 AM
The Fed adds the most liquidity to the system since mid August. Go figure. Everything is peachy keen. Except for Boo, who stuck his paw into an equity Cuisinart the last two days.
Does Hoofy have an ace up his sleeve and a new high to begin the new quarter--or will it happen before the weekend? If so will it be real or Memorex---will it be orchestrated for someone to sell into?
FXI has tagged the 180 level mentioned in a piece earlier this week. It will be interesting to observe what happens from here.
Just one thing: If the Chinese market is at an interim peak and some air is released, the idea of growth slowing there will probably feel like Hoofy was hit in the back of the head with a shovel.
Or as they say in the bull pen, euphemistically, a paradigm shift.
in the same vein, if Chinese stocks see a set-back, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) ought to get hit and hit hard tangentially.
Note the 50/100 rule at work: LVS is up 100% from the summer 70 low while WYNN is up 100% from the breakout over 80 from the summer of '06.
Position in WYNN.
View from Q - Quint Tatro - 8:02 AM
Good morning Minyans. While you're sipping on that coffee and catching up on the news flow, here are some ideas to consider for the day:
The bounce continued yesterday obviously fueled by some speculation over a Buffet purchase of Bear Stearns (BSC). If you have studied the man, you will know that he keeps to himself quite a bit and to see such hoopla around a rumor makes me think it just ain't so. I recall him going to great lengths to make sure his past large depressed purchases were kept very quiet until it was mandated they be made public. I am not sure why now would be any different.
Regardless of that we still have a market that is advancing while many are still on the wrong side. We have 2 more days in the quarter which should keep things pretty interesting. I am starting to get the nagging feeling that it feels better to be pulling off into this strength than trying to put much on however I will continue to let the charts speak. I am biased, as I wrote yesterday, because I for one don't want to screw up a good quarter. I am sure I am not alone in that thinking with some out there. So my thesis over the next two days will be short time frames and only quality selection.
I will continue to let my Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Hoku Scientific (HOKU) ride with identified stops in the $48.00 and $9.00 respectively.
On the radar for today I have Bill Barrett Corp (BBG), which is on the verge of a big break over $40.00. Yesterday's oil number did not help these stocks however if they can bounce, I would look to start here on a break with volume. Comstock Resources (CRK) is also basing around the $31-$32 level and looks interesting on a move over $32.30, which could set the stage for a multi-year break out over the $33-$34 level.
Go get 'em today!
Positions in AMLN, HOKU.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter