Random Thoughts: Positioning into Google
The Internet giant reports earnings tonight.
Driving Miss Daisy! - 1:20 pm
Minyans know there are four primary metrics that move markets:
- Structural influences
At different junctures, these metrics shift on the trading totem pole in terms of importance and influence.
During the last month, structural worries have dominated the market, psychology turned sour, technicals broke down and the fundamentals didn't matter.
As we work off the oversold condition, the markets will stop moving monolithically.
In other words, "throwing a dart" at a sector-such as the banks-won't work.
Earnings will begin to "matter" again on an individual basis rather than for the sector as a whole.
Psychology remains key-if this rally can hold, the mindset will shift from fear to greed (performance anxiety).
I am, so you know, feeding some ducks, particularly in Wachovia, which I bought into the teeth of the figurative and literal raid today.
Remember, jump, test, run, rest... trade accordingly.
Dude! - 1:42 pm
Keep close tabs on crude $130 Minyans.
We spoke about the stair-step yesterday--wait, was that yesterday? It seems this week has been one, long day! Either way, while I think Texas Tea drips lower, I'm taking my trade in the USO puts, which was slapped on around crude $145. If a fool and his money...
As an aside--and in the interest of bringing our discussion full circle--I'm gonna humbly slip that other leg out of the bull costume. I got dressed--or woulda, if I did that--at 10:59 AM Tuesday and 460 DJIA points in two sessions satisfies the imagery.
Especially if the jump, test, run, rest unfolds!
I need food, stat!
Like a sat on hat! - 2:34 pm
My goodness, are we having fun yet?
I'm jammier than a Smucker's factory but I wanted to alert Minyans that, outside of a small Lowe's (LOW) call position and my lottery ticket Gannett (GCI) calls, I'm flat in my short-term trading account.
And yes, that includes Wachovia (WB), which I battled down to a hat-size. It wasn't fun or easy, but now it's over. Oy.
I have, so you know, taken a small portion of the gains from the bull costume profits and bought an odd-lot of Google (GOOG) puts.
Why? Two reasons. First, that frisky, downside gap and two, it acts like poo in a very green sea. I know we're not supposed to flip coins but it's a small schnitzel with defined risk.
Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and beware of the rest (as it jump, test, run, rest).
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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