Swine Flu Strikes Most Productive Workers

By Ryan Goldberg Oct 30, 2009 2:10 pm
The costs have already been monumental, and they're ready to climb.
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As of October 11, there have been nearly 400,000 confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 worldwide and more than 4,735 deaths reported to the World Health Organization, which estimates that the case count is significantly higher because many countries have stopped counting individual cases.

As the name implies, swine flu has its origins in pigs, though researchers have found recent seasonal and bird flu viruses in the new strain.

The initial reaction in Mexico was one of debilitating fear. In the first week, the health secretary called for the closure of everything except churches, grocery stores, buses, and subways. In Mexico City, business income lost in the beginning was estimated at $60 million a day -- about one-third of all local economic activity.

Still, the government response in Mexico likely saved critical time for other countries to prepare.

So far, the human toll of H1N1 is significantly lower than the number of those who die of seasonal flu worldwide each year -- 30,000 people in the United States alone. Calling this a pandemic though -- particularly in the case of a new pathogen like H1N1 -- has likely led countries and citizens to overreact by shutting down normal lines of commerce, even when science says otherwise.

The pork industry has been reminded of this lesson. Despite clear evidence that the virus was spreading through person-to-person transmission -- one couldn't contract it from eating pork -- the widespread use of the name “swine flu” immediately raised concerns over pork safety around the world.

Viral Threats
  • Photo by George Frey/Getty Images

Indonesia and Japan initiated a nationwide medical examination of their hogs. Zoo hogs were killed in Iraq. Egypt ordered hogs around the country be slaughtered.

In addition, 27 nations blocked all US pork imports in the weeks following the first outbreak in Mexico.

There were significant declines in the value of pork futures and the shares of major pork producers. Smithfield Foods (SFD), for example, reported a first-quarter earnings loss of $108 million in September, reflecting sharply lower hog prices as a result of the outbreak. The industry has lost $1.1 billion since April 24, according to the National Pork Producers Council. And it's still on the canvas.
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