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VIDEOUnemployment Rate Drops Despite 25 Months of Job Loss
By
Mike Mish Shedlock
Feb 05, 2010 1:50 pm
The real numbers tell their own story.
In the continuing theater of Bureau of Labor Statistics absurdities, the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in spite of 25 consecutive months of job losses. Some stopped counting at 22 months in November. However, I find November questionable.
This month, professional services contributed 44,000 jobs to the plus side, but 52,000 of the total number of jobs were part-time jobs. Amazingly a table below shows the number of part-time workers decreased by 849,000 from last month. Go figure.
Moreover, the so-called 64,000 rise in November can be attributed to the seasonally adjusted hiring of 94,000 temporary workers. Here's a look at revisions:
BLS Revisions
Household Revisions
The above table doesn't affect the unemployment rate. Revisions to the Household Survey do. Here are the household revisions.
Bingo. Just like that the population shrank as did the civilian labor force.
For some reason the BLS does this in pieces. The following chart shows the result.
There are now a whopping 2.5 million people who are without a job but want one, yet they aren't counted as unemployed.
So yes, the "official unemployment rate" can hold its own or even drop with this kind of nonsense.
Now for a closer look at the report ....
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2010 Employment Report.
Establishment Data
Click to enlarge
Highlights
This month, professional services contributed 44,000 jobs to the plus side, but 52,000 of the total number of jobs were part-time jobs. Amazingly a table below shows the number of part-time workers decreased by 849,000 from last month. Go figure.
Moreover, the so-called 64,000 rise in November can be attributed to the seasonally adjusted hiring of 94,000 temporary workers. Here's a look at revisions:
BLS Revisions
Household Revisions
The above table doesn't affect the unemployment rate. Revisions to the Household Survey do. Here are the household revisions.
Bingo. Just like that the population shrank as did the civilian labor force.
For some reason the BLS does this in pieces. The following chart shows the result.
There are now a whopping 2.5 million people who are without a job but want one, yet they aren't counted as unemployed.
So yes, the "official unemployment rate" can hold its own or even drop with this kind of nonsense.
Now for a closer look at the report ....
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2010 Employment Report.
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0% to 9.7% in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs..
Establishment Data
Click to enlarge
Highlights
- 20,000 jobs were lost in total vs. 150,000 jobs last month.
- 75,000 construction jobs were lost vs. 32,000 last month.
- 11,000 manufacturing jobs were added vs. 23,000 lost last month.
- 48,000 service providing jobs were added vs. 69,000 lost last month.
- 42,000 retail trade jobs were added vs. 18,000 lost last month.
- 44,000 professional and business services jobs were added vs. 20,000 last month.
- 16,000 education and health services jobs were added vs. 26,000 last month.
- 14,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were lost vs. 41,000 last month.
- 8,000 government jobs were lost vs. 27,000 last month.
- 52,000 temporary help jobs were added vs. 58,000 last month and a whopping 94,000 in November.
Look at that last line again.
November added 94,000 temporary jobs seasonally adjusted. Even if true, it's hardly anything to crow about but it does explain the positive job growth in November.
Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so don't attempt to total them up.
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