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Two Ways to Play: The Lo-o-o-o-ong Bond


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.


The Lo-o-o-o-ong Bond

Without question, Treasuries have been in great demand as a safe haven for risk averse investors, that despite a multitude of bailouts and government rescues that will likely send the federal deficit soaring. Minyanville Professor Kevin Depew recently took a look at the 30-year Treasury, AKA "the Long Bond," through the lens of Tom DeMark's price exhaustion techniques. According to Depew, the long bond may, in fact, be nearing at least a short-term top.

In a related story, Minyan Peter touched on what may be in store in the coming years as a result of massive government intervention and spending in "The No-No Years."

From the Bull: Treasury bulls, or those who believe there are few safe alternatives among risk assets, can consider the iShares Barclays 20+-Year Bond Fund ETF (TLT).

From the Bear Cave: According to Depew, a "perfected" DeMark TD-Sequential Sell Setup can only happen if the long bond on the weekly chart makes a new high next week or the following week, above 143. At that point bears can consider selling the long bond, or investors should consider at that point reducing Treasury exposure.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -.26%, Sensex –1.22%, Taiwan +.39% and Shanghai –1.76%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the CAC -.78%, FTSE -.69% and most other indices closed.

As of 8:15 a.m. EST, S&P futures are trading +1 to 859.60, and Nasdaq futures are +1 to 1185.50.

A Look At Commodities

Crude oil is trading –1.72 to 37.25 Gold is unch at 838.20. Silver is +0.2 to 10.280, and copper is +.0085 to 128.95.

The dollar index is -0.195 to 81.045.

On the Radar

U.S. Markets Close at 1 pm ET.


07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
07:00 Personal Income 0.0%
08:30 Personal Spending -0.7%
08:30 PCE Deflator 1.5%
08:30 PCE Core 0.0%
08:30 Durable Goods -3.0%

Click here for the full trading radar.

Good luck today!

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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