Random Thoughts: Resolution Around the Corner!
Get ready for a big technical break.
Minyan Mailbag - 1:58 pm
No disrespect intended but two years ago you bought the big screen plasma TV's--so I shorted Tweeter, which was bankrupt six months later (when Sam's club starts to sell a product and you have large margins, think about cashing out).
Last year, you sung the praises of your new posturpedic--no soft landing there and my best trade this year.
So please let us know if you are buying any big ticket items this fall, thanks!
With peace and respect,
--Minyan George from Beantown
Thanks for the update. For the record, I bought the Tempur-Pedic and it's the most comfortable mattress I've ever slept on. Just ask Phoebe--it's her primary place of occupance.
To your point, I'm not planning to buy any big ticket items as I'm all about capital preservation, debt reducation and financial intelligence heading into what I foresee to be a lean few years. There will come a time to pick up the pace of purchases but for now, I'm trading (renting) not investing (owning).
However, given your astute observation regarding the contrary nature of purchases discussed on the 'Ville, I'm seriously considering pulling together a syndicate to buy the Red Sox, Broncos and Georgetown University. As a Yankee, Raider and Syracuse fan, I figure it's the least I can do to help my abysmal teams find their footing.
Thanks for the note and have a great holiday stretch!
They call it... - 2:20 pm
Contra-Hour begins in the 'Ville with traders looking for a thrill. With the Treasury department spokesman squashing the chattah of an imminent announcement, the flickering ticks are left to their own devices to find their way through the holiday thinned fray.
You can almost hear traders sneaking out the back door as that elusive balance beckons and in two short hours, I'll be right there with 'em. Some winding down vibes as I juggle the excitement of a respite with the reality that it'll be in the midst of a hurricane. Nice, eh?
- Wave that flag, wave it wide and high! No, not you Jerry---I'm talking about that pennant formation we've been eyeing in the SPY.
- The S&P held right where it had to yesterday (1268) and tested the upper band tag during today's rally (1286).
- We know these patterns typically break in the direction of the prevailing trend but given the games people play, we'll need to pay attention to both sides.
- NYSE internals have been snazzy all session. It's thinner than Kate Moss on South Beach but Hoofy has that going for him.
- On the other side of that trade, Boo continues to point to the super-tell duopoly of Google (GOOG) and Goldman (GS), both of which are dancing in Red Dye.
- I said on July 16th that there was an upside window in the marketplace. And as I offered on Monday, that window may be closing.
- While I'm not smart enough to know when that little doohickey that locks windows actually fastens, I'm disciplined enough to keep my risk leash tight as we edge towards what promises to be a September to remember.
- Speaking of remembering, I've got a full plate of to-do's and a ticking clocking with which to do them. So with this (and a little bit of that), I'll again say "may peace be with you" and sincerely mean it!
Take me to the river, drop me in the water! - 2:50 pm
As I eyeball some galoshes (love that word!) and an umbrella, some random thoughts from the hallowed halls of MVHQ:
- By the time we get into the meat of societal acrimony, these are the only talking heads people will wanna listen to.
- There will always be a bull case and a bear case-the residual grist is what you'll read about in tomorrow morning's paper.
- With that said--and this is huge--September looms large. The reaction to credit issuance will dictate the direction of the stock market.
- Simon Property Group (SPG)-$92 is a big technical level for the stock. Real-estate investment trusts have rallied nicely off the July lows and our view is that they could be vulnerable.
- Red Beans in the Green Sea! Stocks that can't rally in an up market typically speak to underlying supply. Washington Mutual (WM), General Electric (GE) ($28 is a big level) and Daimler stand out in that regard
- Are Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) safe? Does a chicken have lips? I'll bet a buck that the issue of their $230 of debt will be resolved by hook or by crook. The equity fate? Entirely up for grabs and not something I would risk my hard earned coin on.
- As I ready for part deux of The Truman Show, lemme take a moment to thank ye faithful for their continued loyalty to the 'Ville.
- I've long said that doing what you love with people you respect while serving the greater good is the definition of professional nirvana.
- I've also said that a dream is only as powerful as those who believe in it.
- Thanks to YOU, we continue to do what we do how we do it and the ranks of Minyanship continue to swell with each passing day. It's all very humbling, to be honest, and this is coming from someone who no longer takes anything for granted.
- Fare ye well into the bell and have a juicy holiday weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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