Most-Hated Stocks Could Be First to Rebound
I don’t believe the economy or the market is going to turn on a dime. Sorry, bulls. After all, the damage to the consumer's and the investor’s psyches has been severe. But make no mistake - I do believe that time will heal those wounds, the consumer will spend once more, and equities will again have their day in the sun.
Apparently, I’m not alone: A recent survey “of 47 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists... predicted the recession-hit economy would begin to recover in the second half of this year, returning to a potential growth trend in 2010.”
The same article also offered the following regarding growth expectations: “The economy was expected to expand by 1% in the third quarter, with growth quickening to 2.1% in the final 3 months of the year.”
What the article didn’t delve into, however, was which companies or stocks might be among the first to rebound if growth occurs. Here are some of my thoughts:
Homebuilders
While I’m not a big fan of them now, I think homebuilding stocks could see a big, quick and dramatic pop if growth and optimism return. After all, while Americans may be a depressed lot, we haven’t given up on the dream. Specific stocks that could come to life: Toll Brothers (TOL), and Lennar (LEN).
Financials
By that same token, the financials could show some serious life, too; more of us would (theoretically) have dough to spend and put to work.
Of course, to be clear, I’m still a bit worried about how heavy-handed the government might become. But if the economy does perk up and Big Brother remains on a leash, I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that we see players like Citigroup (CITI) and Bank Of America (BAC) trade north of $10.
Automakers
How about the automakers - the red-headed stepchildren of American industry?
I think we could certainly see shares of Ford (F) and/or General Motors (GM) double from current levels if the economic cloud were to lift. My big question there is whether those companies would make fundamental changes to the way they do business to ultimately make them more competitive. If they did, I might hop aboard. If not, I’d pass.
The bottom line here, people, is that the economy is in the dumps - there’s no doubt. But sooner or later, these tough times will pass and the ugliest, most hated stocks today could be among the first to rebound.
And there you have the silver lining.
Hey, have a great day - and think positive!
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Not a chance anytime soon. Five years or more of excess inventory still out there and more coming with the next wave of foreclosures. Construction may improve in the remodeling & repair business as people make what they have last or upgrade their present home. (that assumes they can still afford to make the payments.)
Financials:
There will be a resurgence of the financial sector once the economy begins to improve. However I think Citigroup and Bank Of America are dead men walking and will be carved up and sold or fully nationalized if they survive.
Automakers:
The only real chance the US Automakers have is for Ford & GM to merge so they can compete against the foreign Automakers. Chrysler is dead. Time to bury the body and divide the pittance of an inheritance.
Silver Lining:
Silver. Gold is too expensive for the poor folks, but if you can buy some Gold, buy it too.
Another Silver lining is living in the country where you can grow some of your own food and avoid some of the crime that will come from these hard times we are about to experience. The next 2-3 years will be tough, the next 4-5 years tolerable, 8-10 years and we may be back to even or possibly making money again.
One cannot expect rescue only to dust off his old principles once danger is over (which is not)
And I doubt this is the way it will work out. Rather it will be a long and painful process, with a lot of consolidation along the way. Expect shotgun marriages, rescue funds, bad banks and nationalization.
